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I’ve taken some of the very long odds to small money available on Bobs Worth, but there’s some left at 50s.
I know Simonsig is the yard’s big hope, but he’s not a natural jumper to my eye, and that injury could catch him out again.
I don’t see a reason that Bobs Worth shouldn’t take his chance (unfortunately, I can’t be sure Mr Henderson shares my view). I think he’s been written off far too quickly on his Gold Cup run, and I know he’s getting on a bit. But I see no superstars in the market, so he’s well worth taking a chance on at the price, imo.
He’s won a bumper and a hurdle at Kempton, and was amiss (trainer says) when beaten in the 2011 Feltham.
As mentioned on the Gold Cup thread, I suspect he’s a tricky horse to train, but I’ve no doubt he’s a great deal better than he showed in the Gold Cup.
I’m sorry to desert Cue Card, but he stopped to nothing last year in this race, and I thought he carried his head oddly at times at Exeter the other day.
As for the rest, I see nothing tremendously exciting among them.
Good luck
JoeBobs Worth being aimed at the Lexus at Leopardstown….won’t run in the King George….I don’t think they aim to run him right handed whatsoever….
Bobs Worth being aimed at the Lexus at Leopardstown….won’t run in the King George….I don’t think they aim to run him right handed whatsoever….
Yes.
Captain Chris. Big IF they can get him ready in time. Would love the current price with a NRNB.
Lee
I’ve taken some of the very long odds to small money available on Bobs Worth, but there’s some left at 50s.
I know Simonsig is the yard’s big hope, but he’s not a natural jumper to my eye, and that injury could catch him out again.
I don’t see a reason that Bobs Worth shouldn’t take his chance (unfortunately, I can’t be sure Mr Henderson shares my view). I think he’s been written off far too quickly on his Gold Cup run, and I know he’s getting on a bit. But I see no superstars in the market, so he’s well worth taking a chance on at the price, imo.
He’s won a bumper and a hurdle at Kempton, and was amiss (trainer says) when beaten in the 2011 Feltham.
As mentioned on the Gold Cup thread, I suspect he’s a tricky horse to train, but I’ve no doubt he’s a great deal better than he showed in the Gold Cup.
I’m sorry to desert Cue Card, but he stopped to nothing last year in this race, and I thought he carried his head oddly at times at Exeter the other day.
As for the rest, I see nothing tremendously exciting among them.
Good luck
JoeJoe, I backed Bobs Worth ante-post for the King George two years ago and didn’t get a run for my money. I considered the horse to be at the peak of his powers then and thought 20/1 was worth the risk after he landed the Hennessey and completed a memorable double I had placed with Silviniaco Conti in the Betfair the previous week.
It was a good looking Hennessesy that year with Tidal Bay in second and First Lieutenant in third but there was always the slight nag that Bobs Worth had run modestly on a previous outing at Kempton.
I remember reading at the time, and sharing it here, that Barry Geraghty had said he felt too much was being made of Bobs Worth not coping with the Kempton track. The jockey explained that the horse just wasn’t right around that time and, on that day in particular, wouldn’t have performed at his best regardless of location.
The way Bobs Worth won the Gold Cup the following March left me wondering what might have been had they aimed him at the race but looking at this year’s renewal and not seeing an outstanding contender, we have to worry what sort of shape Bobs Worth himself will be in.
After a modest seasonal debut last year Bobs Worth seemed to get right back on track afterwards and I backed him to defend his crown at Cheltenham. What followed was a strange Gold Cup with several horses seemingly running big career bests while Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti decided to spend as much energy moving sideways, as they did forward, in the closing stages. I was very disappointed by that effort and I had opined after his first race of the season that Bobs Worth might be yet another "One and you’re done" Gold Cup winners.
Bobs Worth was dropped 8lb for his Gold Cup effort but to me he ran a lot more below form than that figure would indicate and to me that would be a bigger worry than having to run at Kempton. I wonder what was so bad about Bobs Worth having finished third in the Feltham at Kempton? Grand Crus was favourite that day and won it, while Silviniaco Conti finished second, ahead of Bobs Worth in third. Grand Crus turned out to have his problems afterwards but the Nicholls horse went on to win the King George later and, as the jockey said, he felt the horse was off colour that day.
As you say Joe, Bobs Worth has won twice at Kempton, a National Hunt Flat race and a Novice Hurdle, where he finished nine lengths clear, in easy fashion, from Sire De Grugy. Not a lot wrong with that and it seems to be harsh to declare that the horse can’t act on the course based on a record of -2113 in four outings at the venue.
My gut feeling is that he’ll be a bit past his best now but I’ll be happy to be proved wrong. I’ve had more good turns out of him than bad and he’s a likeable sort who out jumps his size and is gutsy under pressure.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve, as was mentioned, he’s obviously expected not to run (I got 130 on Betfair). But the yard cannot be that determined, as they paid the entry fee. Now that might just be as insurance against the Lexus being called off, but I’m happy to take my chances at that price.
The Feltham defeat was followed by another at Ascot, but NJH insisted the horse was wrong for both those runs and he felt he was running out of time for Cheltenham – he did not expect to get the horse back. That’s why I think he’s a tricky one to train and even at 9, the trainer might not quite have sussed him out.
He beat Cue Card over 21f at Newbury, won over 3m in the Lexus and can do the stamina test too when necessary, if it turns into the affair it did last year.
Much will depend, I think, on Simonsig’s debut performance. I don’t think he’s a natural by any means – when Long Run comes under pressure, he starts leaving his back legs in a fence (he has always done it). I see Simonsig doing that even when not under pressure, and I doubt he has the athleticism to win in the highest grade.
I see no other real value in the KG, so I’ll just hope connections have a change of mind.
Steve, as was mentioned, he’s obviously expected not to run (I got 130 on Betfair). But the yard cannot be that determined, as they paid the entry fee. Now that might just be as insurance against the Lexus being called off, but I’m happy to take my chances at that price.
The Feltham defeat was followed by another at Ascot, but NJH insisted the horse was wrong for both those runs and he felt he was running out of time for Cheltenham – he did not expect to get the horse back. That’s why I think he’s a tricky one to train and even at 9, the trainer might not quite have sussed him out.
He beat Cue Card over 21f at Newbury, won over 3m in the Lexus and can do the stamina test too when necessary, if it turns into the affair it did last year.
Much will depend, I think, on Simonsig’s debut performance. I don’t think he’s a natural by any means – when Long Run comes under pressure, he starts leaving his back legs in a fence (he has always done it). I see Simonsig doing that even when not under pressure, and I doubt he has the athleticism to win in the highest grade.
I see no other real value in the KG, so I’ll just hope connections have a change of mind.
I am not sure on Simonsig myself. I put him in my ten to follow as I felt he might be versatile trip wise and find a niche to ply his trade somewhere if his first target proves unsuitable. I was very confident about him when he went and won at the Cheltenham Festival but I would tend to agree that he is too short for the King George at the moment.
With that in mind I am drawn to a horse who needs to improve but has done so already and has scope to continue on that path. Road To Riches made all in the J N Wine at Down Royal, with big distances back to Rocky Creek, Boston Bob and First Lieutenant in the minor places. He looked in command a long way from home and this Galway Plate Chase winner looks on the up at seven years of age for Noel Meade.
The question mark for me will be the horse’s tendency to jump left and the impact that will have on his ability to show his best at Kempton. To my eyes he looks a better bet, as a horse in the betting at 14/1, based on having just recorded a career best, than Silviniaco Conti at as low as 6/1 after a very modest seasonal debut.
Holywell will come on for his first run but surely his main target is the Gold Cup later in the season.
Champagne Fever, Dynaste and Cue Card all have question marks and can we trust the impressive recent winner Menorah to put the same type of performance in for a second time?
For a horse not certain to be running, Bobs Worth is widely quoted for the race and 20/1 is the biggest price, with 14/1 in places now. 130 is certainly a nice ticket to be sitting with if he lines up on Boxing Day. When I backed him two years ago only a handful of firms were quoting him and I was concerned by that fact. I’d be encouraged to see him quoted across the board and his presence would certainly add spice to the race.
I can’t back Simonsig at as low as 4/1, and I shudder to think what his odds will be, assuming he wins his first race of the season.
Road To Riches would be my pick at 14/1 if I was still betting the jumpers.
All the best with the 130 Joe, you could be the new Ante-Post King, well Prince at least
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
To my eyes he looks a better bet, as a horse in the betting at 14/1, based on having just recorded a career best, than Silviniaco Conti at as low as 6/1 after a very modest seasonal debut.
While I tend to agree, you could argue that a horse proven in the top Grade 1 Chases over the past few seasons (Conti) is as big as 10/1 while a horse who has won a watery looking Grade 1 with many horses blowing away the cobwebs is also a 10/1 shot with most bookmakers.
Anyway, Road To Riches seems Lexus bound according to what Meade said after the JNWine.
I’m not convinced Champagne Fever will make the trip across and Dynaste looks the best bet to me at the moment at 10/1.
To my eyes he looks a better bet, as a horse in the betting at 14/1, based on having just recorded a career best, than Silviniaco Conti at as low as 6/1 after a very modest seasonal debut.
While I tend to agree, you could argue that a horse proven in the top Grade 1 Chases over the past few seasons (Conti) is as big as 10/1 while a horse who has won a watery looking Grade 1 with many horses blowing away the cobwebs is also a 10/1 shot with most bookmakers.
Anyway, Road To Riches seems Lexus bound according to what Meade said after the JNWine.
I’m not convinced Champagne Fever will make the trip across and Dynaste looks the best bet to me at the moment at 10/1.
The Lexus seems their preferred option Tommy but you never know.
I am not sure I would call the J N Wine a watery grade 1, although it is agreed that some of the contenders needed the race. They were strung out quite a long way in behind though and if I was training Boston Bob or First Lieutenant I would be looking for some encouragement from Rocky Creek in the Hennessey to boost confidence after watching my horses finish well behind him.
Silviniaco Conti goes there with a good chance but he was bitterly disappointing in the Charlie Hall, going down like sound-alike namesake John Conteh in his latter fights, in the days when advertising logos were placed on the soles of his boots for best visibility.
Dynaste is capable but was a dickens of a way down the field in last year’s renewal. It was soft that day and he has never won on genuine soft going, so rather than back ante-post I would feel it imperative to leave it until the day with him.
He certainly got a lot closer to Silviniaco Conti at Aintree in April.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Simonsig out of the Peterborough and not certain for the King George. Fresh on the back of the Sprinter news (out of the tingle creek).
Nicky is some boy for misinformation. Basically talked a load of baloney about these two last season/earlier in the year.
Some boy indeed….he’s more of a nightmare for ante post punters than Mullins.
He tells you how well they are, what their targets are, then last minute, no sorry, not quite ready. Really going off the guy!I’d say it’s more a case of the yard not firing he doesn’t want his superstars beaten…
As I’ve said a few times, you deserved exactly what you got if you got involved with Simonsig for the King George or Sprinter Sacre for the Tingle Creek/Champion Chase.
Henderson has a vast scrapheap of ruined top class horses and recent form with putting the public away. Yet we still had ‘Simonsig wins’ and ‘buying money’ in this thread? The sun isn’t shining in Mug Punterland today.
I think this goes back to SS’s last run. You know how nervous NH got when he did run. I wonder if he was 50:50 for SS to take his chance last December and let him just because he had not had a run that season. NH is probably kicking himself for letting him take his chance and now any slight doubts are met with possible withdrawals. If this is the case, is it time to retire especially has he runs such a high profile stable
I said after the Betfair that it was madness that Silviniaco Conti and Simonsig were jt favs at 5/1 for the King George when you consider one horse’s achievements with the other’s.
Current betting sees Silviniaco Conti at as low as 5/2 and Simonsig as big as 9/1.
Time to order an extra big Turkey if you got on Silvy at 5/1, and time for a gallon of rot gut Sherry if you went in on Simmy at the same odds.
Yo, ho, ho, or boo, hoo, hoo?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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