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Djakadam will be well suited by 3 miles on a flat track with a bit of give in the ground. I think he’ll turn up here. Yorkhill really needs the left handed track so I’d say he will stay in Leopardstown and go for The Lexus and the Irish Gold Cup, assuming that he stays over fences..
Can see Douvan staying in Leopardstown also and starting at 2 miles
Douvan I can’t see running in it as he has unfinished business over 2 miles after Cheltenham last year – for the life of me I don’t understand while Un De Sceaux has not been entered for this race, it wouldn’t be too dissimilar to when Desert Orchid stepped up to 3m back in the day and I can just imagine him bowling along in front on softish ground.
He has won over almost 2m6f on very soft ground in France and whilst he got beaten next time out over 3m2f in France in June, I am not sure it was the trip that was the problem as he had run in December, January, March, April, May and June of that season and may have been feeling the effects of a hard season (especially given his run style).
On a side note, I think it is also well past time that Vroum Vroum Mag goes back to chasing as that is what she was built for and I am not quite sure whether she would be able to turn the tables around on form with Apples Jade this year.
That being said, I would really love to see Djakadam gets his head in front in a big one as he has been so consistent in these big G1 races and always seems to just miss out through one thing or another.
I am happy with my 5/1 Might Bite and 12/1 Sizing John. Hopefully I won’t need to place other bets.
This looks tougher than the race Thistlecrack won last season. Cue Card hasn’t done much for the form.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I see that Might Bite is entered in the Intermediate Chase at Sandown on Sunday. Nicky Henderson’s star may scare off the opposition; who knows, we may even end up with a repeat of the match between Barton Bank and Cab On Target in 1993.
I’ll be at Sandown on Sunday and am more than happy just to see a horse that good on such a quieter day’s racing than Kempton on Boxing Day. I remember watching Coneygree win the same race a couple of years ago and it made for very easy on the eye viewing.
I think Might Bite will win the King George, I really do but it’ll be amazing to see what’ll happen if Thistlecrack runs and tries to go with him. Maybe Scudamore will take a lead off him.
I not sure that Might Bite is anywhere near good enough (beating Whisper twice does not warrant him being favourite for the race) and the 1st season out of novice company for staying chasers is difficult at the best of times even if the staying division is weak but unfortunately for him the current division is packed deep with very talented horses.
To me he is very one dimensional tactic wise and vunerable to the stalkers (especially if he gets taken on early) and I can easily see him hitting the deck in the KG, which will be run at an unrelenting championship pace that he has never experienced before – it will also be a major test of his jumping.
Sunday’s race really shouldn’t tell us anything we don’t already know about him and while you don’t want to give him a hard race first time out, I am not sure it will be a sufficient enough test to prepare him for Boxing Day.
I remain to be convinced.
Satisfactory start to the season for Might Bite. His jumping was generally really good, if sometimes a little big, and he has put the race to bed easily when asked. I think he will be better if allowed to get on the lead, too.
Henderson has said he won’t run again until the KG, but might have a race course gallop.
I not sure that Might Bite is anywhere near good enough (beating Whisper twice does not warrant him being favourite for the race) and the 1st season out of novice company for staying chasers is difficult at the best of times even if the staying division is weak but unfortunately for him the current division is packed deep with very talented horses.
To me he is very one dimensional tactic wise and vunerable to the stalkers (especially if he gets taken on early) and I can easily see him hitting the deck in the KG, which will be run at an unrelenting championship pace that he has never experienced before – it will also be a major test of his jumping.
Sunday’s race really shouldn’t tell us anything we don’t already know about him and while you don’t want to give him a hard race first time out, I am not sure it will be a sufficient enough test to prepare him for Boxing Day.
I remain to be convinced.
Might Bite needs to progress this season. The RSA he won at Cheltenham has been absolute bobbins since. Nothing else has won from that race in 22 attempts, with 17 unplaced efforts along the way.
It’s all about potential with Might Bite, he’s only had 13 starts, not much for a horse turning 9 on 1st January. He was largely unconsidered until running away with the race only to fall at Kempton last Boxing Day and I think he did well to bounce back from that to win the RSA and Mildmay.
Might Bite didn’t beat Whisper by far but in the RSA he pulled out a miraculous win after wandering all over the shop and you felt he was always holding the same opponent on the run in at Aintree. Interestingly there was a good distance back to the third horse in both races, with yawning gaps to the other runners. In the RSA only half of the dozen who set off managed to finish, with one unseat and five pulled up.
It is one thing to envisage stalking horses coming through to claim front runners but when the pace is strong, you need to go to a certain pace in order to stay within striking distance and that slowly eats into the reserve being saved for passing the leader in the closing stages.
Thistlecrack was a legend over hurdles but he is yet to reach anything like that over fences. He won three egg and spoon races before beating Cue Card in last year’s King George and that race was a virtual match, where Cue Card ran well below his mark on Racing Post figures, having run to 164 on their ratings, compared to 180 when he beat Vautour in the same race the year before.
Much of the cold, hard analysis was lost in the sentiment of Many Clouds dying after beating Thistlecrack in the Cotswold Chase but the reality was that Thistlecrack lost to a Grand National winner who had previously won an awful looking race at Aintree. Many Clouds was an atypical National winner in many ways but not many horses who have won the Aintree marathon go on to be top grade at around 3 miles. Thistlecrack also has to come back from an injury.
I am still trying to fathom why the Gold Cup winner Sizing John was 12/1 at one stage. He was the surprise packet rising star last season, having improved out of all recognition for stepping up to 3 miles plus. I felt sure he would puncture at the Cheltenham Gold Cup trip but the horse wasn’t for stopping and he surely has to have every chance at Kempton this Christmastime.
Still some 7/2 on Might Bite after today but he’s a chronic looking 7/4 in a place. (You’ve guessed it, it’s Stan (Skinny) James)
This could be a great race, let’s hope it’s better than last year’s dismal match race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Think Sizing John is still being vastly underrated, he was able to stay within halling distance of Douvan several times over 2m before stepping up to 3m+ and winning all three of his starts at that distance (the first I believe to win the Irish Gold Cup/Gold Cup/Punchestown Gold Cup in a season) and he is also a year younger than Might Bite.
…the first I believe to win the Irish Gold Cup/Gold Cup/Punchestown Gold Cup in a season
Whilst you can’t denigrate Sizing John’s achievements, you can certainly question the form.
In the Irish Gold Cup, he beat Empire Of Dirt (subsequently only fourth in the Ryanair, then pulled up in the Betway Bowl) and Don Poli, who we all know needs eight miles; at Cheltenham he beat another pair of one-paced plodders; at Punchestown, he edged out perennial runner-up Djakadam and the admirable but limited Coneygree.
Come Kempton, Sizing John will be taking on much pacier horses in Might Bite, Thistlecrack and Cue Card. While you’re right to say that he was chasing Douvan around in his novice days, he wasn’t exactly going toe-to-toe with the Mullins horse- more following him at a respectful distance.
It would be folly to write off Sizing John for the King George- he still has untapped potential over the trip-
but he’ll need to put in a career best performance to land the big Boxing Day prize.Steve is questioning the form of the Cotswold Chase, but before that Thistlecrack was the second coming following a commanding victory in the King George, and Many Clouds had beaten fairly useful types in Le Mercurey and Minella Rocco at Aintree as readily as you like while conceding five lbs. Le Mercurey is not one to set the world alight, but he finished close enough to Native River in the Denman and has some amount of smart form in his catalogue, while Minella Rocco went on to finish third in the Gold Cup. Many Clouds had his wind fixed, and the impression within his camp was that he was a better horse than he had ever been because of it. He certainly gave that impression at Aintree, I thought.
At the risk of looking very foolish in one/two/five months’ time, I think Sizing John was the best of a bad bunch last year and will look out of place against the likes of Might Bite and Thistlecrack (if he comes back in full swing). That’s not to mention Cue Card, who is still a beast when getting his conditions, Our Duke and Native River, who I think is being forgotten about a little. That, unless he finds a lot of improvement this season. It seems mad to crab a horse for winning three Gold Cups in one year, but I don’t think he’d have won the big one had either Thistlecrack or Many Clouds made it to Cheltenham.
As for this race, this is already looking like something I won’t have a bet in, unless Fox Norton made an appearance and somehow slipped in as a double-figure price.
Sizing John’s form although you can question it collaterally (but then you can do that with everyones) is still another level up on what Might Bite has achieved to date and yet he is 3-1 fav. SJ gettting within 8L of Douvan twice over 2m, I think means he more than has enough speed to be able to cope with the pace Might Bite may set.
If I had to have a bet then I would probably look at Djakadam who is generally around 16-1 (probably partly as there is a doubt he would come over) and whilst I think he stays 3m2f fine he more than likely will start off again in the 2m4f John Durkan (which he has won for the last two years).
If you watch last years Gold Cup he absolutely tanked his way through the race pretty much up to 3 out, so he is not short of speed and 3m round Kempton’s flat track on softish ground looks tailor made for him especially if they go quick from the start.
I thought Cue Card was feeble in last year’s King George. People said he was back to form in routing Coneygree afterwards but the latter horse is fast approaching 3 years since his Gold Cup win, a win that was miles ahead of what he had done before or since. It was also bottomless ground that day.
Cue Card sauntered home when 4/9 and defeating Shantou Flyer but the form of that race is woeful and the fact of the matter is that when Cue Card has run in better races he has failed rather miserably. Colin Tizzard stated that the horse remains at the height of his powers but the ratings and, more importantly, the wallets tell a different story.
Djakadam is becoming something of a myth horse. He has had his chances I feel and his record of one win from his last eight starts is a terrible strike rate for a horse you would be considering backing in a King George.
I am not confident on Sizing John for Boxing Day, I just felt he was way too big at 12/1. Thistlecrack is now a third of those odds. Is he really three times more likely to win than the Gold Cup winner?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Might Bite told all you need to know, good and bad, in his remarkable RSA performance. What he did just doesn’t happen in the real world. Have another look at it. He had almost stopped to a walk and yet got himself going again taking what looked like one lolloping stride to every two of Whisper’s to get back up.
There’s giving a start to something when you’re both standing still and there’s having to move back through all the gears again to catch an opponent who is running as fast as he can. Hard to believe he pulled it off, even watching again.
On the other hand, he almost downed tools again today. They’ve done a job on his impulse to dash away in front but made little if any inroads to his idling quirk. They have the option of trying to hold him up properly a la Sea Pigeon but he might well sulk at that too. Fascinating puzzle, but no doubt in my mind the horse is enormously talented.
Might Bite told all you need to know, good and bad, in his remarkable RSA performance. What he did just doesn’t happen in the real world. Have another look at it. He had almost stopped to a walk and yet got himself going again taking what looked like one lolloping stride to every two of Whisper’s to get back up.
There’s giving a start to something when you’re both standing still and there’s having to move back through all the gears again to catch an opponent who is running as fast as he can. Hard to believe he pulled it off, even watching again.
On the other hand, he almost downed tools again today. They’ve done a job on his impulse to dash away in front but made little if any inroads to his idling quirk. They have the option of trying to hold him up properly a la Sea Pigeon but he might well sulk at that too. Fascinating puzzle, but no doubt in my mind the horse is enormously talented.
Do you think his RSA performance would be more highly regarded had he not idled and instead won by 10 lengths? RPR have Might Bite at 170 for that and Whisper at 164, but in reality MB was far more dominant than that. However, it’s probably more difficult to do what he did and still win!
A very good question, Degausssed. Ask it of the pro handicappers and I’d guess they’d always opt for a conventional display as there’s nothing in their toolkit that can measure what Might Bite did that day.
He seems fine if there’s a fence ahead and I wondered today if Nicky might lobby Cheltenham to stick a portable one 7/8ths of the way up the run-in and whizz it away on strong elastic as he gets there!
Having been at Sandown yesterday I must say that Might Bite looked absolutely incredible. This must be the most magnificent looking horse in training, a bit Sprinter Sacre-esque and most definitely fit.
I’ll agree that his jumping does raise questions but I’d rather back a horse who clears his fences like a stag then one who’s lower, maybe more economical, but more prone to belt one and loose momentum.
One things for sure, if Might Bite doesn’t win the King George whoever beats him will know they’ve been in one hell of a race.
Went to see Might Bite in the flesh on Sunday and have to say, didn’t seem anything special to look at in the parade ring. Won as expected, but I couldn’t be having him for this. I don’t think any of the 3 he beat are ever going to be winning grade 1 races and think others would have put that race to bed a lot easier than he managed to. Jumping is too erratic still and personally would have liked to see him get another run in before Kempton to try and iron these jumping errors out.
I suspect a Thistlecrack galloping besides him and not going away will unsettle MB which can only lead to further problems jumping.
Surprised at the lack of support for Sizing John. Done everything right since stepping up to 3 miles and fully expect him to outbattle TC and MB on the run in.
Couldn’t bring myself to back a notorious bridesmaid in Djakadam.
Douvan – fairy confident he won’t see a race track until the new year
Bristol De Mai – not got the class
Cue Card – Not the same horse IMO, jocking Brennan off is trying to paper over the cracks.
Coneygree – chances are he wont make it based on the last 2 years.
The rest of the Irish contingent not in the same class as Sizing John .I certainly hope Thistlecrack comes back just as strong as before in which case I think it could be a cracking finish between him and SJ, but having your first run in 11 months being the King George, is far from ideal and could do the horse more harm than good.
Think SJ is good value at 4/1 and I have taken it
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