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Agree with Cookie, he only loses if he falls. Laying him, is laying him to jump a clean round.
The bookmakers offering 11/10 about Kauto Star winning a fifth King George seems rather generous, don’t you think – seeing as how he is viewed in some quarters an absolute certainty.
This could yet prove to be his toughest Kempton test to date.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Obviously if he’s anywhere near his best he wins but I wasn’t convinced by his run in Northern Ireland and think he might be on a sharp decline now.
I like Long Run on a track that suits and feel that Sizing Europe has again been underrated. Last season people looked at the race where Captain Cee Bee tipped up when looking the likely winner and just assumed that was SE’s form, that was as good as he was. It turns out he was much better at Cheltenham where he was a fresher, livelier horse. He never jumped with the same fluency at Down Royal and I expect a much better showing at Kempton. 16/1 is a smashing price. If he gets into a nice rhythm it’s hard to see him out of the places.
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Last year’s King George was run in a much faster time than the Feltham and whilst 8s (as a proportion of 6m) doesn’t sound all that much, it’s actually quite a distance.
If Long Run gets within 10l of Kauto Star I’ll be amazed.
I Think Sizing Europe will go close here. If Ruby was on Kauto i couldn’t see him beat but their is something about Sizing Europe’s travelling and Jumping(over "easier" obstacles) that excites me.
On Long Run he is fast becoming a nothing horse.
I can’t believe their still persisting with that woeful Jockey on board. I am sorry but he is not up to this level. If a Jockey like Barry was on aboard the problem of settling him would not be a issue.
Just very disappointing performances by this beast.
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Long Run couldn’t give Kuato Star a scare in a horror house.
Where’s the piece of form that justifies his price? is what I would like to know.
Beating Tazbar who all but tailed himself off at one point?
Long Run reminds me of the kind of horse the novice buyer who goes to the sales and picks up because he’s the one with the shiny coat. Looks the part but isn’t.
I think people should face the fact he’s simply not that good. He had everything you could possibly think of in his favour last time out, was 100% fit and was backed accordinly but still ended up being outjumped and outpaced.
To go from there to even have a chance in the King George would be one of Nicky Henderson’s greatest ever training feats.
The problem is the horse looks so good in his races. He travels like a dream he can quicken plus Kempton looks taylormade for him. He is a scary horse becuase of that but this is Kauto Star and Imperial Commander we are talking about not Tazbar on an off day.
I expect to see nothing less than Imperial Commander and Kauto Star who are head and shoulders above everything else going miles clear of the rest and hopefully Kauto Star coming out on top.
I think people should face the fact he’s simply not that good. He had everything you could possibly think of in his favour last time out.
Except the course, the trip and the jockey.
Possibly you could have thought a bit harder, Fist
If Long Run and Sizing Europe get into a nice rhythm with their jumping (and like Diamond Harry last week I think a flat track and a decent pace will help in that regard) then I see them both being major players. The latter in particular is a terrific price for this, especially with a view to backing to lay. Yes he was race fit at Down Royal, but take a look at that race and compare the way he travelled and jumped to that of his Arkle run. Different animal. And it’s surely a joke that Riverside Theatre is trading at similar odds. Ridiculous.
Obviously Kauto Star is the likeliest winner, but to me he’s worth taking on simply based on his likely decline sooner or later. I didn’t like the fact that he was hard pushed at Down Royal by a relatively ordinary horse like China Rock and one not really suited to the track or the pace of that race in Sizing.
After
Cooldine
runs away with the Durkan,thats if it ever gets run his odds will be slashed for the King George only for Willie Mullins to say he wont run,he currently trades at 320 on the machine and even the eternal optimist that i am has to expect the worst here!
Forpadydeplasterer
and
Sizing Europe
both trade at 10"s on the machine to win the King George without Kauto Star,both have excellent prospects under those conditions,particularly my old pal Forpady who just seems to be 2nd all the time! As long as my name is TAPK,Long Run will not win the King George i"m afraid,he really is an over rated horse! Reet here"s another chance to prove me wrong!
Long Run reminds me of the kind of horse the novice buyer who goes to the sales and picks up because he’s the one with the shiny coat. Looks the part but isn’t.
I think people should face the fact he’s simply not that good. He had everything you could possibly think of in his favour last time out, was 100% fit and was backed accordinly but still ended up being outjumped and outpaced.
Considering the horse is merely a five year old I think that is very premature IMHO. He has been a talking horse that has yet to deliver, however to suggest a horse that has amassed career winnings of over £700k is not that good is complete twoddle.
For what its worth, I would love to see Riverside Theatre take his chance in this, he was very impressive last time out at Kempton, he didn’t beat much, but he looked a most improved horse.
JohnJ
I think he means at this very moment not good enough. Long Run will win the Gold Cup as an 8 year old.
W Hill offering 6/1 Imperial Commander w/o Kauto -looks good value if you like Kauto and IC.
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