- This topic has 496 replies, 78 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 9 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Many forget ( or don’t know ) that Arkle was required to concede weight to his rivals in the King George. Kauto Star was not.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
- Total Posts 17716
I never knew thatThere was no sign of Moscow Flyer’s deterioration until it suddenly happened. KS has got an awful lot of miles on the clock and I make Long Run at 6/1 a good bet even two months before the race.
To even think of The King losing his Boxing Day crown seems like a betrayal to me.
I’ve taken the 9/4.
Something to ponded – if Kauto is half the horse he was last year, and his rivals are twice as good, then there’s 9 lengths between them.
Something to think about.
FLD
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
The horse i like the look of is
Cooldine
and i can see him doing a Florida Pearl for his owner Violet O Leary,this fellow is a specialist 3 Miler who has a high cruising speed,his jumping is solid and as an 8yo is still capable of improving,he also handles any ground,i have backed him down from 34"s to 24"s on the machine!
Just shows i"m only human,
Cooldine
now trades at 120 on the machine and that doesn"t look good! Still had another fiver on though!
Did an ante post £10 acc in June;
Twice Over (Eclipse)
Starspangledbanner (July Cup)
Harbinger (King George)
Kauto Star (King George)Pays £1450. Fingers crossed :0)
Could make it a very happy new year indeed!
Did an ante post £10 acc in June;
Twice Over (Eclipse)
Starspangledbanner (July Cup)
Harbinger (King George)
Kauto Star (King George)Pays £1450. Fingers crossed :0)
Could make it a very happy new year indeed!
Good Luck!
- Total Posts 17716
What prices did you get, JJM, as that return looks particularly generous?
What prices did you get, JJM, as that return looks particularly generous?
He only needs £500 running onto Kauto at 2/1 AJ!
7/2,2/1 7/2 would have been available!
Try again, 3/1,2/1,3/1, puts £480 on at 2/1, closer!
- Total Posts 17716
There was no sign of Moscow Flyer’s deterioration until it suddenly happened. KS has got an awful lot of miles on the clock and I make Long Run at 6/1 a good bet even two months before the race.
Backing Long Run in the King George is all down to hope. You hope Kauto Star doesn’t turn up, he takes a tumble, he secretly has a bionic legs and the battery fails or you hope he has rheumatism and lost all his abilty during his holidays. Which one are you hoping for Euro?
Long Run’s claim to fame since crossing the chanel is he won a 2 mile chase against week opposition then beat Tazbar who virtually tailed himslf ohh in the race before running on late in day, by 13 lengths.
At Cheltenham perhaps the trip found him out but never at any point could you say he was travelling noticably better than the opposition. His jumping was awful and he was lucky to finish as Citizen Vic departed company with Ruby at the 2nd last. The commentator remarked he fell when beaten which is beyond me as Ruby hadn’t moved a muscle on him and Sam W-Cohen waas getting after Long Run who was only a neck in front of him when he came down.
He certainly doesn’t have the form in the book yet to even bother Kauto Star but Kempton could suit his style of running better than Cheltenham did.
Long Run catches the eye as ahorse witha very high cruiing spedd but that’s the very thing that will lose him races at the highest level because he’s not cruisng as such. He’s way too keen for his own good IMO.
When Kauto is on song he has a bit of a tug for a couple of fences then falls asleep. He’s totally relaxed conserving valuable enrgy whereas Long Run is pulling like a train.
Stepped up in class at Cheltenham he was never travelling over the top of them but he’s such a keen horse he actually ran away with Sam in the middle part of the race or may have had a bit more left in tank at the business end.
The way I see it is if Kauto runs anywhere near his form at Kempton the fact Long Run has a good engine and is a very keen horse he shouldn’t have too many problems keeping tabs on him but when Ruby says go he’ll have used up so much energy doing so he’ll collapse in a heap and be lucky to be placed.
For an EW bet I’d be looking for a lot bigger than 6/1 .
I’d be very interested in Mad Max if Nicky decided to let him take his chance but that looks unlikely. I can’t se Nicky asking too much of him early doors as he has had wind problems in the past. He’s more likly to have aslow build on on his way to CheltenhamWhat A friend will PN run him ? has to be doubtful if Kauto is 100% tha only leaves Planet of Sound and his win in the Guinness Gold Cup is more than good enough to see him run well here. 14/1 on him would be my idea of a good EW bet.
2/1 to win five King George’s on the trot must seem stingy to some people but there has been not one single sign that would indicate he’s on the downgrade and until there is, backing against him especially round Kempton is strictly for the birds.
Nicholls has said that What a Friend goes for thee Hennesy, so can’t see him going for the King George too.
Prices were
Twice Over 9/4
Starspangledbanner 9/4
Harbinger 3/1
Kauto Star 9/4Got it wrong, thought I had better price on Twice Over, pays £1373.13.
I’ve never had a really big bet pay in my life, became so close, several times, the Colts in the SuperBowl last year, and Burton Port at Cheltenham last year. Trying to work out what insurance to do, thinking of:
ALBERTAS RUN and BURTON PORT
Can Long Run seriously go with Kauto? Really?
I’m tempted by the price about Mad Max but I think a bigger galloping track like Leopardstown would suit him more than Kempton. Wouldn’t surprise me if he went for the Lexus especially with Henderson already having Long Run for this.
- Total Posts 17716
Nicholls has said that What a Friend goes for thee Hennesy, so can’t see him going for the King George too.
Prices were
Twice Over 9/4
Starspangledbanner 9/4
Harbinger 3/1
Kauto Star 9/4Got it wrong, thought I had better price on Twice Over, pays £1373.13.
I’ve never had a really big bet pay in my life, became so close, several times, the Colts in the SuperBowl last year, and Burton Port at Cheltenham last year. Trying to work out what insurance to do, thinking of:
ALBERTAS RUN and BURTON PORT
Can Long Run seriously go with Kauto? Really?
Both Trevor Hemming horses are unlikely to run. Jonjo’s ran last year which probably cost him a win in the Betfair chase so BP could be the most likely.
If you bet Long Run and neither win you lose everything.
If Kauto Star wins in Ireland he’ll most likely be about 1/2 to win again which if you laid him off in a green area at 1.55 you would be guaranteed to make 865 quid
win or lose
.
To do that you would need to have a Betfair or Betdaq account with about 12000 quid in it on the day, to make sure you can cover the bet. The shorter the odds the more you need and late withdrawls could mean him starting at 2/5 or less.
No sense in thinking this or that won’t happen because more often than not it does.
To calculate a Green area you divide,your potential win by the oods you are laying at and that gives you the amount you lay him for. ex 1372/1.55 = 885.35
Deduct your original stake of 10 quid and that’s your profit either way. If he was bigger say evens you’d still make 676 quid uisng the same method.
Why wont
Albertas run
have a go with his new catch me if you can tactics Fist? Obviously soft ground and he"s wasting his time but on Good ground he has e/w prospects and he"s a better horse now than 2 yrs ago when he was 2nd!
There was no sign of Moscow Flyer’s deterioration until it suddenly happened. KS has got an awful lot of miles on the clock and I make Long Run at 6/1 a good bet even two months before the race.
Backing Long Run in the King George is all down to hope. You hope Kauto Star doesn’t turn up, he takes a tumble, he secretly has a bionic legs and the battery fails or you hope he has rheumatism and lost all his abilty during his holidays. Which one are you hoping for Euro?
The money I have on Long Run is the second part of a double I placed on Saturday (Workforce for the Arc was the first) so I’m easy really. If Kauto doesn’t make it I’ll lay Long Run at a short price for guaranteed profit and if he arrives at Kempton looking in fine fettle I’ll lump on him as cover.
ps Not after-timing, bet mentioned on TH.
I see connections of Imperial Commander want another run in the King George.
I personally cannot see the logic in this, unless they are going to be doing something different with the horses, in relation to last season.
He won the Gold Cup last season, after a disappointing run in the King George, 3 months earlier. I dont know what will be done differently this time round, which makes connections feel like he will suddenly become a fan of Kempton and the flat, right handed track.
His 2 previous runs in the King George have been very average. Whether it is the confidence of beating Kauto Star in March which is fuelling their thoughts, i dont know, but Kauto Star is a different horse around Kempton, and Imperial Commander doesn’t seem to go that well there.
Will be interesting to see his price in the ante-post markets.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.