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I personally think out of the Henderson pair, i would rather be with Riverside Theatre.
Seems to be an improving horse, yes the step up to 3 miles is a step into the unknown for the horse, but he loves Kempton, and he couldn’t have been any more impressive when he visited the course last time.
I personally think he is the value in the race.
Whether or not he is good enough to beat Kauto Star, remains to be seen, but i would rather back Riverside Theatre at 12s, as opposed to his stable mate, Long Run, at 5/1 or 6/1.
I think Sizing Europe’s chance will depend on two things. Whether he settles early (didn’t at Down Royal). And whether he jumps, I wonder whether he jumps better up with the pace, rather than held up. Yet probably needs to be held up (to settle well enough) to get the trip. .
I was thinking exactly the same Ginger’…its the Sizing dilemna…all his best races have seen him jumping well at the sharp end but being at the sharp end, especially with that pesky Nacarat around, might prejudice his staying credentials. Nevertheless I believe he should be ridden prominently, I would almost say dramatically, with a big move to go clear at the start of the 2nd circuit his best chance of an upset for me. A fully on-song Kauto rules out a win but that may not happen.
I have followed Sizing for years now and love his elan and dash. I have backed him to win and also without Kauto. Hoping for another Victory in Europe.- Total Posts 17716
That Hugh Taylor, does like to copy me.
I tip Grand Crus for the World Hurdle,
Hugh tips Grand Crus for the Word Hurdle,
I tip Nacarat for the King George,
Hugh tips Nacarat for the King George.They say great minds think alike.
Ginger backs Imperial Commander for the KG.
Reet puts in a good word for Nacarat
A few days later, Ginger saves on Nacarat
Reet also puts in a good word for Riverside Theatre.
The next day Ginger also backs Riverside Theatre.I’d rather believe great minds think for themselves.
- Total Posts 17716
Nacarat
It suggested in an earlier post the faster ground was responsible for him winning at Wethherby but when looking back he also dropped the copycat Desert Orchid tactics which may aslo have contibuted to him winning so well. I’ll be surprised if Sam Doesn’t drop him in about 3rd or 4th this year on the first circuit and try and burn them off from about 5 or 6 out. I can see why people think Nacarat could be the horse to back without Kauto.
Long Run
I get the feeling with him he’d be a much better horse if left to his own devices. His Paddy Power run is very hard to forgiv and he has got to stand off his at fences, get into a Rythm to stand a chance. I really think SW-C should totally forget everything around him relax the horse and let him do his own thing. If he wants to go on let him go on and don’t be taking a pull because he’s tavelling well and upsetting his rhythm.
Riverside Theatre
He’s the most unexposed horse in the race and could be anything. I have no worries about him getting the trip after veiwing his win here over 2m5f. Golan Way went a fair clip and at times Barry had to give him a sqeeze but the further it went the easier it became for him. He did make one farly bad mistake but his jumping got better and better as he was allowed to stride out. Hard to say how good he is but he’s probably the only horse in the race who could beat Kauto Star as we don’t know how good he actually is. Looks the part and could prove excellent ew value.
Alberta’s Run:
Decison was made that he would run in this instead of Burton Port came as a bit of a surprise. Neither like the ground and Alberta’s Run has hsown some top form in the past and his main target might well be the Betfair Chase.
Sizing Europe
: Has one of the highest cruisng speeds in racing whether it be the Champion Hurdle or the Arkle or a 3 mile chace he lobs round at high speed like he was half asleep. If he gets the trip I’d fancy his chances of finishing 2nd to Kauto Again as he’s the only horse who I think might still be on the Bridle after the 3rd last. Can’t see him beating kauto though.
Forpaddydeplasterer: He makes some real bad mistakes in his races but always seems to come there cruising only to find not enough when it matters.. However this is the King George and I can see him getting so far behind he’ll never get into contention. Never gave me the impression he’ll be any better at 3 miles. PU is more likely than a win IMO.
Planet of Sound
He will run his normal good race but is out of his league here. I don’t rate his win in Ireland as highly as some and his 3rd in the Arkle is as good as it gets IMO. Could get placed but I sincerley doubt he’ll prove good enough.
Madison Du Berlais
finished 2nd last year. Probably too many fast types in this for him to remain in contention beyond halfway. Think he’ll be too far behind this time and it will be a major surprise if he makes a place.
The Nightingale:
Don’t ragard him as top class rating is a joke no chance IMO won’t be placed
What A Friend.
Nice day out to say hello to the people will be tailed off and given a quite ride out the back while his jockey whistles him a tune or two. They’ll have a different plan for him IMO
Kauto Star:
Won on his comeback in workmanlike fashion which is just about par for the course for him but it was probably his best ever performance 1st time out if you consider that Sizing Europe is Grade 1 winner.
Talk of deteriation seems laughable and if anything he might be coming to his prime. Grab all the evens you can get and back him today for the Gold Cup is my advice.
1 Kauto Star 2. Sizing Europe 2. Riverside Theatre
Distance……….camera lens isn’t wide enough.I was conversing with an old sage of the racing game the other day; a man who thinks Kauto Star to be the best chaser we have seen in a long time.
We discussed the forthcoming King George. Obviously he thinks Kauto will win – of course, I took a differing view – but the one thing we did both agree on, was that he will find things much tougher than he did last year. My friend referred to last year’s renewal as ( Kauto aside ), " nothing more then a glorified handicap."
I have a feeling that if Kauto doesn’t get into his famous Kempton rythmn, and clouts one or two early on, then sports personality of the year, Anthony Peter McCoy may resort to his bustle him up and roust ’em along tactics; something which would be anathema to the horse’s racing requirements.
I am also equally certain that in this bigger field, the other jocks will give no quarter, and that if Kauto is to win a fifth consecutive KG, he ( and AP ) may have to pull out all the stops – and more.
You heard it hear first.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Down to 11 runners now. I am a bit surprised all the ones with a ground preference stayed in. e.g. Albertas and forpady like it good whereas Nightingale likes it soft. Judging from comments from Kempton it looks like the ground will be good or good to soft. So maybe something for everybody.
Also I find it hard to believe nobody knows if Riverside Theatre will get the three miles. Surely with all the science involved in training nowadays you would think it possible to work it out.
We discussed the forthcoming King George. Obviously he thinks Kauto will win – of course, I took a differing view – but the one thing we did both agree on, was that he will find things much tougher than he did last year. My friend referred to last year’s renewal as ( Kauto aside ), " nothing more then a glorified handicap."
I have a feeling that if Kauto doesn’t get into his famous Kempton rythmn, and clouts one or two early on, then sports personality of the year, Anthony Peter McCoy may resort to his bustle him up and roust ’em along tactics; something which would be anathema to the horse’s racing requirements.
I am also equally certain that in this bigger field, the other jocks will give no quarter, and that if Kauto is to win a fifth consecutive KG, he ( and AP ) may have to pull out all the stops – and more.
You heard it hear first.
Bigger Field? Eleven have been declared this year, compared to thirteen in 2009.
Are his rivals vastly superior this year? Well, he destroyed Madison Du Berlais, Nacarat, Albertas Run and Ollie Magern last year, and beat race fit Sizing Europe on his seasonal bow.
Excluding Sandy Mac from the equation, the average rating of last years competition was 159.8, this year its 160.7.
A lot of the field are open to improvement – trip, age – but those who are have to find a minimum of 23lb.
As for Kauto ‘clouting’ a fence, how many mistakes has he made in four years? Three? He belted the fourth from home in 2006 at a crucial stage and didn’t even blink. On what we’ve seen the last four years, his rivals are more likely to blunder away their chances.
Bosranic, I am merely acting as supporting counsel for those devil advocates out there.
But a little word or two of caution, old boy: before you go lumping all your family silver on Kauto.
remember Zenyatta and the poor wretches who lost all !
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
^^Good job I didn’t back her, then.
This would be one twisted world if two great horses are thwarted by bad luck in as many months. Thankfully, on this occasion, I think the best horse will get his just deserts.
The others need a miracle…and Mike Smith is nowhere near Kempton.
My two cents on the race even though it looks increasingly unlikely to go ahead.
The race revolves around one horse and he will win if anywhere near his best. Despite his tendency to hang to his left, the sharp 3 miles at Kempton Park is clearly Kauto Star’s stomping ground. Even though he has won around Cheltenham, Sandown, Haydock & Aintree I don’t think he’s anywhere near as effective around those tracks as he is at Kempton. Is he value at odds on? On ORs he is but we have a tendency to read too much into them at times. He was laboured in beating Sizing Europe and China Rock who are only rated in the 160s and 150s. Last season, Imperial Commander had upwards of 20lbs to find on Kauto Star and we all know what happened then. Is there any horse who can find similar improvement in this field?
On first glance I would say no. Long Run is second favourite but he looks a ludicrous price. You simply couldn’t fancy him on any piece of form and would be backing him solely on stable hype. He may well be a very good horse in the future if he sorts out his jumping because he showed in the Feltham last year that he clearly has an engine. If he had Barry Geraghty or Paul Carberry on board he might enter my calculations e/w at 13/2, but with a moderate amateur who can’t even use his claim? Not for me.
Nacarat is well held on all known form. He acts well on this track but it’s a bit of a leap to think he could possibly pull this one off. Planet Of Sound won well at Punchestown and his run at Haydock was respectable. I’ve a feeling that Punchestown race fell into his lap a bit though. Denman and Cooldine were below form and it was left to the veteran warrior War Of Attrition to chase him home. Dickie Johnson stole that race to a certain extent and I doubt the jockeys here will give him the same easy lead out in front on the second circuit. The Nightingale looks a shade below top class. I doubt that Down Royal race took much winning and the fact that he was being aimed at the Durkan rather than this puts me off him. Albertas Run is very decent on his day but even on a going day for him, he’s still a good way off Kauto Star. Madison Du Berlais and Ollie Magern are both on the downgrade.
Having done a fair bit of travelling around Munster and south Leinster over the past few days, I’d have my doubts over whether Sizing Europe and Forpadydeplasterer will travel. Even the main roads are in a very bad way. If they do travel they would both look to hold solid place claims. Being Arkle winners, they both have tactical speed which is a huge asset in the King George. Slow staying horses rarely land a blow in this race. Both will have huge concerns about the trip though. I’ve never been a big Sizing Europe fan but there’s no denying his class on a going day. I think he can finish closer to Kauto Star than he did at Down Royal. There’s no evidence that he was fully wound up for that and the ground was against him. Andrew Lynch reported that he slipped going to the first fence and it knocked his confidence for at least the first mile. I’d expect he’ll jump much better at Kempton on what will hopefully be better ground. I’d expect a big run but to be honest I’ve never really had a great deal of trust in the horse so I won’t be backing him. Forpadydeplasterer on the other hand is ultra consistent but he just always finds one too good. I don’t think he has temperament issues, he is just bone idle when he hits the front. I’d love to see Cooper try a set of cheekpieces on him. Like Sizing Europe, I do think he will stay and I expect a big run but I find it hard to think either have the necessary improvement in them.
That brings me to Riverside Theatre who is the one I would consider backing w/o the favourite. He likes the track, jumps well and should have a good deal of improvement left in him. The trip is an unknown but if he’s going to get three miles anywhere, it will be at a track like Kempton. He shaped like he’d get further as a novice hurdler when he ran on well at Punchestown behind Hurricane Fly. He ran a similar race in the Arkle after being outpaced coming down the hill.
I probably won’t have a bet in the race (if I do it will only be a small bet on Riverside Theatre w/o the fav). I would fully expect an on song Kauto Star to win given that this is his track and I don’t think the opposition are up to that much. There’s just enough doubts in my mind about his regression at nearly 11 years of age to put me off steaming in at odds on though. I was not that impressed with the Down Royal run and if he had stood up in the Gold Cup, I’m certain he would have been beaten 20+ lengths. I hope he does win but he won’t carry my Christmas cash this year.
Nice write up.
Fingers crossed I sing in the New Year with Kauto’s winnings in the coffers!
I have long been of the opinion that Kauto’s raceday tack does not do him justice. Look at that head…
- Total Posts 17716
I was conversing with an old sage of the racing game the other day; a man who thinks Kauto Star to be the best chaser we have seen in a long time.
We discussed the forthcoming King George. Obviously he thinks Kauto will win – of course, I took a differing view – but the one thing we did both agree on, was that he will find things much tougher than he did last year. My friend referred to last year’s renewal as ( Kauto aside ), " nothing more then a glorified handicap."
I have a feeling that if Kauto doesn’t get into his famous Kempton rythmn, and clouts one or two early on, then sports personality of the year, Anthony Peter McCoy may resort to his bustle him up and roust ’em along tactics; something which would be anathema to the horse’s racing requirements.
I am also equally certain that in this bigger field, the other jocks will give no quarter, and that if Kauto is to win a fifth consecutive KG, he ( and AP ) may have to pull out all the stops – and more.
You heard it hear first.
Damn pessemist
BTW NO overnight frost forcast for Sunday 3 degres centigrade they say so must be a good chance for Monday if off on Sunday.Have you counted the senior group 1 winners at 3 miles in the field? There’s 2 Alberat’s and Planet of Sound.
Some nice 2m horses sure but no 2 Arkle winner has ever won a King George.
Too many these are going on a wing and prayer against Kauto "SUPER" Star
More I look at Riverside Theatre the more I like him but as for the rest? Not a hope in hell of beating him..only Kauto can do that.
Here are some of my favorites for this race:
KAUTO STAR, obviously. I am dying to see him winning a fifth KG consecutively. And it might be a big opportunity to seize for Tony McCoy if he wants to be more popular.
SIZING EUROPE: I find him stronger and tougher for one year, he made some progress and managed to finish 2nd to Kauto Star at Down Royal. If he’ll be among the first three, I’ll be happy.
FORPADYDEPLASTERER. I am really impressed by his regularity since his beginnings. However, he rarely won for the last year and a half, and I’m not sure whether the distance will suit him.
I hope the race will run in sound conditions.
Damn pessemist
BTW NO overnight frost forcast for Sunday 3 degres centigrade they say so must be a good chance for Monday if off on Sunday.Have you counted the senior group 1 winners at 3 miles in the field? There’s 2 Alberat’s and Planet of Sound.
Some nice 2m horses sure but no 2 Arkle winner has ever won a King George.
Too many these are going on a wing and prayer against Kauto "SUPER" Star
More I look at Riverside Theatre the more I like him but as for the rest? Not a hope in hell of beating him..only Kauto can do that.
Fist, all those sunny Siam Christmases and over-cooked skinny Bangkok turkeys must be playing havoc with that once finely tuned brain of yours, old friend.
I’m not in the least pessimistic. Not at all. Just mildly cautious, tinged with a hint of realism.
We all know that dear old Kauto is the class act of the field, and on all known form he should hack up round his favourite course. But, like both of our good selves ( you more so
), he is not getting any younger – and certainly not any faster. You know better than most, that as in life, so in racing, it follows; there is always a queue of whipper snappers lined up – ready and desperate to snatch the King’s crown. That’s all I’m saying.
I agree entirely about the Arkle winners. Their chances of winning a King George seems very unlikely. Few have the necessary stamina to succeed – although I do remember to this day the valiant effort that wonderful mare, Anaglog’s Daughter, put up, when trying to de-throne the Dickinson trained golden boy of the time, Silver Buck. She tried to make all but her lack of stamina meant she couldn’t wrest the prize from that very good three mile chaser.
Like you, I just hope this year’s contest goes ahead. You have a prosperous Christmas, sir – and go easy on the sherry.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
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