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I agree Reet . I am also grappling with other imponderables: the going and the Irish horses.
The ground is good according to the going stick. But as it is so cold I don’t know if this means anything. When the snow melts does it run off the covers, leaving the ground as good or does it melt into the ground, making it soft? This is quite important given the clear preference of Long Run and the Nightingale for soft and pady’s preference for good.
The Leopardstown forecast is quite mild for 28 Dec so the Lexus should go off on schedule. Kempton is 50/50 for Sunday but probably odds on for Monday. The Irish horses could be cooped up from Thursday (when they set off) till Monday and then might not even get a run if the race is postponed to Jan 8. The trainers must be actively considering whether it’s worth the hassle over Christmas when the Lexus is more convenient.
The three wise ( ante-post) kings have foretold
that the great Kauto Star has already won;
why o why then, did I put each way money
on Waley-Cohen’s Long Run ?
We mug punters just never learn.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
- Total Posts 17716
There are 14 runners left now. It looks like at least 7 certain to start, then Albertas Run and Burton Port as possibles, then 5 doubtful at 50.0 or more. There seems to be a media blackout on Albertas and Burton. Does anyone know how likely they are to turn up?
Yes Jonjo and Nicky know
Burton Port definitely doesn’t run but Alberta’s Run is ground dependant. Jonjo says if it’s white he won’t go
AP has already declared himself to ride Alberta’s Run but if was really soft Jonjo would most likely pull him out.
I have had a small bet on Planet of Sound at 29 on Betfair, and hope it goes ahead at Kempton as the course should suit.
First run over 3m in the Punchestown Gold Cup and did it quite nicely. So still unexposed at the trip. And Hobbs is certainly able to keep his horses going well during the cold snaps with Minehead beach available for gallops. Certainly fancy him more than some of the others, although obviously Kauto is the most likely winner.
I had a few quid on Fordpadydeplasterer @ 25’s & 26’s, and it seems like a lifetime ago I put it on.
To be honest I’d just like it to go ahead, and for Kauto Star to win, I’d love it if he won!
Hugh Taylor has moved the price of Nacarat by recommending him each way. Not a bad idea and his rationale that a lot of the competing runners are unproven at a fast 3 miles makes sense. However, I am slightly surprised he didn’t go for Planet of Sound who is a better price and beat Nacarat in the Betfair Chase.
Hugh Taylor has moved the price of Nacarat by recommending him each way. Not a bad idea and his rationale that a lot of the competing runners are unproven at a fast 3 miles makes sense. However, I am slightly surprised he didn’t go for Planet of Sound who is a better price and beat Nacarat in the Betfair Chase.
Nacarat got in to a battle a long way out with Imperial Commander. They went too soon. It looked a two horse race coming around the turn. Both going supremely well. However, Nacarat did not get home in the conditions. Much better than his placing suggests. IC also, a lot better than his margin of victory suggests. Tidal Bay was favoured by not consenting to go the pace. Flattered by coming through beaten horses. Planet Of Sound ran well enough, but beaten fair and square. There is also the rationale of horses for courses, Nacarat has done well at Kempton.
That Hugh Taylor, does like to copy me.
I tip Grand Crus for the World Hurdle,
Hugh tips Grand Crus for the Word Hurdle,
I tip Nacarat for the King George,
Hugh tips Nacarat for the King George.They say great minds think alike.
Value Is EverythingThat Hugh Taylor, does like to copy me.
I tip Grand Crus for the World Hurdle,
Hugh tips Grand Crus for the Word Hurdle,
I tip Nacarat for the King George,
Hugh tips Nacarat for the King George.They say great minds think alike.
Backing two big priced losers is ( in this case ) more akin to the "fools seldom differ" adage, I would suggest.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
- Total Posts 17716
Tony McCoy will most likely be riding Kauto Star is the latest news
I’d want to know there wasn’t too much cut in the ground before being confident that Nacarat will be placed in this.
Tom George was adamant prior to his win first time out that the fast ground would bring out the best in him and so it turned out.
Back on softish ground at Haydock he was a spent force along way from home.
The other worry is it’s a totally differnt type of race this year. Last year there were more slow to get going staying types whereas this year there’s more horses like Albert’s Run, Riverside Theatre, Sizing Europe, Forpaddys and Long Run who travel well in their races and are less inconveniened by a fast pace.
I’m not sure if Sizing Europe will get the trip but he travels very well in his races and very seldom isn’t around in the closing stages.
Could be worth a place bet or 8/1 without Kauto
You could be right H.
I won’t mind whatever the result (well, almost).
Backed Nacarat and Riverside each way.
If the two day meet is called off I get my money back on Imperial.Yet, really hope Kauto Star does it again, for racing.
I’ve twice been shouting home ones I have backed, over the last. Just to change alliegences on the run in. Desert Orchid (V Panto Prince) and Persian Punch (Goodwood Cup). This years King George might be another.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Seems to be the case that Noel Feily stood himself down as his doc says he needs surgery or will suffer permanent damge……Damn shame!!.
I guess the forum will now change to is AP the right man to ride him?
I like Sizing Europe without Kauto too Fist. The vibes out of the stable seem quietly confident. It is interesting that De Bromhead was very pleased with his seasonal debut behind China Rock, evidently he was nowhere near peak fitness. Last time out he lost bundles of ground at his jumps where he was very slow and deliberate. Still he traveled well until Kauto’s class started to tell, but he kept on nicely to get second. I think he’ll come on a lot again from that run and, provided they’ve done work teaching him to fence more fluently at a slower pace, is the one to chase Kauto home.
Agree Fist,
Nacarat would be best served by a sound surface, to make it a speed test. Although might get his own way out in front, setting a slower (than most KG’s) early gallop, if Alberta’s isn’t in the race.Value Is EverythingI think Sizing Europe’s chance will depend on two things. Whether he settles early (didn’t at Down Royal). And whether he jumps, I wonder whether he jumps better up with the pace, rather than held up. Yet probably needs to be held up (to settle well enough) to get the trip. His proximity to Kauto Star last time, only because Nicholls runner was well below form. Though at his age, might be on the downgrade anyway. Which is why he’s 11/10 and not 4/7. Sizing Europe is not one for me at the prices, though is better value than Forpaddy.
Value Is EverythingSeems to be the case that Noel Feily stood himself down as his doc says he needs surgery or will suffer permanent damge……Damn shame!!.
I guess the forum will now change to is AP the right man to ride him?
We know who will get the blame (wrongly), if Kauto Star isn’t as good this year.
Value Is EverythingRe: Nacarat
Can’t get away from the memory of last year when he paid the penalty for trying to go with Kauto. He was out on his feet before the last and faded to be beaten a long way in 4th.
Nacarat was race fit at Haydock whereas Planet of Sound was having his first run. I’d be surprised if Planet doesn’t confirm the form with Nacarat.
The great uncertainty is the ground – very hard to know how tacky it will be having been under the covers for so long.
Here’s hoping this goes ahead on Sun or Mon as I have gone cold turkey and it’s not even Christmas yet!
- Total Posts 17716
Just my opinion, but I can’t see the ground being any worse than g/s, if the meeting is on. Severe frost seems to bind the ground together and it wants a deal more warmth or rainfall than is predicted to soften it. Kempton have often had frost prior to this meeting in the past, but Best Mate (2002) was the last winner on soft ground proper.
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