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Are there any contingency plans, for example due to the weather? Or will they postpone, and run elsewhere? Or run at a later date for example?
The weather could be a big factor now. The Irish horses might be reluctant to come over if there is a chance the thing might be called off or the horses can’t be exercised before the race, especially as they have alternative entries in the Lexus. It could boil down to a select field of Kauto, Long Run, Nacarat, Planet of Sound, Riverside Theatre and maybe the Nightingale.
I imagine perhaps the Irish would fly in on the day if it was on. I am not sure if they come by boat normally.
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Grimes
Riverside Theatre was simply outpaced in the Arkle – as he was previously in the both the better 2m hurdles he ran in, and subsequently in the RyanAir at Punchestown – though the way he finished at Cheltenham suggested he had no problem with either the class or the undulating course.- Total Posts 17716
While a very brave decision to miss the Peterbrourough a race he must have gone very close in it might just pay didvidends.
If Long Run were to make one of his typical jumping errors round here at this level he could be tailed off before you know it. His habit of getting into the bottom of fences and puting in slow jumps could soon see him out of contention at the speed the King George is normally run at.
I could see Riverside Theatre running a very big race here with so many doubts about some of the others getting the trip and wouldn’t try to put anyone off backing him at 6/1 without Kauto Star.
Just put an ante post bet on Planet of Sound as a Christmas present bet for the S.O.[who follows the Hobbs’ horses] but, when I asked at William Hills what would happen if the race was cancelled and rescheduled, they couldn’t guarantee that all bets would stand, so I didn’t want to risk another bet [for myself] on Riverside Theatre.
The weather could be a big factor now. The Irish horses might be reluctant to come over if there is a chance the thing might be called off or the horses can’t be exercised before the race, especially as they have alternative entries in the Lexus. It could boil down to a select field of Kauto, Long Run, Nacarat, Planet of Sound, Riverside Theatre and maybe the Nightingale.
I imagine perhaps the Irish would fly in on the day if it was on. I am not sure if they come by boat normally.
No guarantee that the Lexus will be on either.
Surely the horses can be exercised on the a/w track at Kempton?
Grimes
Riverside Theatre was simply outpaced in the Arkle – as he was previously in the both the better 2m hurdles he ran in, and subsequently in the RyanAir at Punchestown – though the way he finished at Cheltenham suggested he had no problem with either the class or the undulating course.Yes, that makes sense, reet hard. It could augur well for 3 m couldn’t it, that being over just the 2.
I’ll try to get the 6s without Kauto which Fist mentioned,
Are there any contingency plans, for example due to the weather? Or will they postpone, and run elsewhere? Or run at a later date for example?
According to Lysaght on twitter, plan b is 27 Dec at Kempton, plan c Jan 8 at Sandown. I am not sure if ante post bets would stand for plan b but they almost certainly would be voided for Sandown.
Whilst I hope Kempton gets the green light on Boxing Day, watching Kauto attack those Railway Fences one more time would not be a bad substitute.
One Man won the rescheduled ‘1995’ King George at Sandown in January and Kicking King claimed his second King George at the Esher track after Kempton was closed for redevelopment.
I have heard Kempton officials use the term ‘bullish’ in recent days. Although it’s an adjective used to express a confident attitude, it’s never a word that fills ME with great confidence!
Why not, kasparov. A cancelled meeting is a cancelled meeting, isn’t it, whatever number or date, the plan? Could you explain? I expect I’ve missed something elementary.
Why not, kasparov. A cancelled meeting is a cancelled meeting, isn’t it, whatever number or date, the plan? Could you explain? I expect I’ve missed something elementary.
Ante post rules vary from bookmaker to bookmaker. Change of venue and date should be enough to void a bet but a one day delay at the same venue might not. From Ladbroke:
The race is run on a later date at the same venue; and entries are not re-opened, in which case the bet will stand.
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Deleted misread post
There are 14 runners left now. It looks like at least 7 certain to start, then Albertas Run and Burton Port as possibles, then 5 doubtful at 50.0 or more. There seems to be a media blackout on Albertas and Burton. Does anyone know how likely they are to turn up?
I am trying to work out if Kauto is good value at 11/10 (W Hill ante post).
If all horses run to form then Kauto should win by about 20 lengths. But there are many risks. I rate them as follows:
not turning up 2%
falling or being pulled up after major jumping error 15%
aging slightly so not quite so fast – say 1% or 4 seconds (16 lengths slower) – 20%
slowed by minor jumping errors 20%
another horse running well above form 20%So assuming these are independent risks and any one of the last three would give a 50% chance of not winning but two or more combined would cause him definitely to lose, his probability of winning would be roughly
0.98 x 0.85 x 0.704 = 0.59 or decimal odds of 1.69 or roughly 4/6.If you are with me so far you should be questioning where the risk percentages come from. I have made them up using my skill and judgement. I would be interested in alternative inputs.
However, it does make you wonder where the odds compilers get their 11/10 from. Maybe they just look at the exchange prices or maybe they say he went off at shorter odds (8/13) last year so this year they should be a tad longer as he is a bit older and there are improving horses like Long Run in the field.
I am going to be boring here, I think Kauto Star looks the likely winner, but each way for me is The Nightingale.
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Kasparov
‘Value’ is just an opinion before the race, and everyone’s is different, but if Kauto Star wins by any more than a driven-out 4l, then odds-against would seem fairly generous.
From a rating’s perspective (ignoring last year’s KG, which fell into Kauto’s lap, and he was subsequently overrated for) KS could run 10lb below his best – OR 186; RPR 185 – and still win this comfortably.
Established horses like Albertas Run and Nacarat are unlikely to find the necessary improvement to trouble him, and progressive horses such as Riverside Theatre, Long Run, The Nightingale (overrated), Sizing Europe and Burton Port (needs further/stiffer) still have an inordinate amount to find to topple him, so all are up against it.
Fwiw, I think Kauto will run below his best, though not enough for these to trouble him, and – if the race is on, and it’s not run in a bog – then I’ll be in there, and perfectly happy to take anything approaching 11/10, though whether it’s value – I’ll tell you after.
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