- This topic has 496 replies, 78 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 8 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I think Kauto will walk this as the opposition seem pretty ropey. However, more interesting is the market without Kauto. William Hill seem to want to take Long Run on at 7/2. This is a very good price. He is 5/1 to win so should have a roughly 1 in 3 chance of winning without Kauto (assumed evens to win). So his true market consistent price without Kauto should be 2/1. But Hills are giving you 7/2 instead of 4/2.
Maybe Hills think he won’t turn up or is a likely faller but even so I think 7/2 without Kauto is a better bet than 5/1 with him if you like Long Run.
Sizing Europe at the general 7/1 without Kauto is also quite good I think.
Yes, Long Run has time on his side (in theory), but potential needs to be realized at some point. In reality he still really hasnt done an awful lot in the UK yet – except occasionally look good – and now he has to face horses that are in a different league to his previous opponents.
For all his supposed talent (which may or may not be just hype) and potential, given the choice , I’d much rather have any of my cash on his mate Burton Port. He isnt flashy, he often got overlooked or ignored, probably wont ever win a Gold Cup or King George, but who you know will run himself into the ground trying to win, probably while passing Long Run up the home straight.
- Total Posts 17716
Would poppycock be too strong a response to your post Peter?
I’m against Long Run because after a very nice introduction to UK racing he’s been disappointing. Hype doesn’t come into it.
What I am wondering is how he will react to the pace of the King George.
He wouldn’t want to be taking Nacarat on too early that’s for sure. He’s very quick and fluent at his fences whereas Long Run tends to be slightly apprehensive at his.
This is Long Run’s toughest task to date and will be fast and furious. When you look at the field these are not typical King George horses. Lot of speed in there and jumping is going to be of the upmost importance.
If Long Run hit one of these fences early doors like he did the 2nd last in the Feltham and he’ll struggle to get back into the race.
If W-C can get him into a rythm and he puts in a clear round then and only then would he stand a chance.
The last thing I want to see is the horse on the floor but at the speed this lot are likely to be going if he makes a typical Long Run error his chances of staying on his feet will be greatly reduced.
- Total Posts 17716
I suspect Kauto’s got a shade too many Grade 1 miles on the clock. We shall see, (alas….?)
Also, Daytripper, our top trainers seem to get most of their fastest horses, including Kauto, from la belle France.
"Fist I guess you don’t follow French racing very carefully, or you’d have noticed that Long Run only ever ran in top class races and was the first horse to win both the 3-y-o champion hurdle and then the 4-y-o champion chase. The horse he regualrly beat in his chases just won the Grade 1 by 15 lengths. His French form is absolutely top class. Still got to prove he’s as good over here, but at least understand why he has such a big reputation." – Daytripper
"Long Run reminds me of the kind of horse the novice buyer who goes to the sales and picks up because he’s the one with the shiny coat. Looks the part but isn’t." – Fist
How about that for beginner’s luck, Fist? And just because he had a shiny coat! Not meant maliciously. Just routine p*ss-taking.
You know Grimes every year someone says the same thing about Kauto Star and sooner or later someone will get it right.
Last year he was all but beat by Imperial Commander at Haydock and many thought that was a sign he wasn’t the same horse then he urns up at Kempton an wins by nearly a fence in a hack canter.
This year he took on two decent animals at Dowroayal but you could hardly say he was brilliant which has to put some doubt in peoples minds.
The bookies are still offering evens and on all known form he should be 1/2 or even 2/5 for the race so they are obviously thinking could this be the end of the line.
MY idea is he’ll hack up again and that then puts him right back in there with a chance of regaining the Gold Cup for a second time. If he did for me it would be the greatest achievement of all time in NH racing.
As far as french racing goes it’s pretty much crap old son. First Class in France is like a day out at Doncaster races in the UK. Your Rubi Ball would be the same Rubi Ball Long Run kicked into touch a couple of times………….Now Long Run is in the UK he’s kicking everything else into touch. That’s like saying if Denman Kauto Star and Imperial Commander retired tomorrow then Albertas Run is top class. To me what it proves is French racing ain’t worth squat.
If it were they would be raiding Cheltenham year in year out with countesss runners as the Irish do.
Get back in yor box Grimes and don’t come back out till I tell you
To be fair Long Run is no doubt a very good horse he’s just not as good as our top chasers or at least hasn’t shown anything so far to say he is.
The French have had a few that held their own like Kasbah Bliss, The Fellow and Nupsala but overall they are a league behind.
Admitedly my interst in French jump racing goes from limited to zero but that’s because they have very few horses worth talking about. All the good ones are in the UK with Nicky Henderson or Paul Nichols
Its last chance saloon for Long Run.If he was half the horse he"s supposed to be,he had to win the Paddy Power under the conditions he encountered.Public support suggested he was ready for it and his trainer is quite capable of readying one for a big race so i for one was dissapointed,as was his RSA run! Long run will have to run the race of his life and show us all something he has failed to do so far to win the King George! I have watched his jumping and to me he looks stiff jointed,those who argue he has time on his side are clutching at straws as this fellow has had plenty of opportunities to show he is a natural jumper! A normal run from Kauto Star in this will gauge exactly where Long Run fits into the pecking order and to be seen as a realistic Gold cup horse he must get within 5 lengths of the champ,of course i am adamant Kauto star wont be back to Cheltenham anyway!
Burton Port
now there is a proper Gold Cup horse and what encourages that opinion more is the fact that his trainer even contemplated running him in the Welsh National,tells you the stamina required for Gold is there in abundance,his form tells you the class and scope is there and he is a far more athletic sort than Long run too! Punchestowns! another potential Henderson star,he"s got a yard full of talent!
The French have had a few that held their own like Kasbah Bliss, The Fellow and Nupsala but overall they are a league behind.
And potentially the best of the lot.
Jair du Cochet
!
- Total Posts 17716
Embarrased to say I never saw him run Gord and had to look him up on the web. Was a busy year for me and never saw too much of anything of the festival build up as I was immersed in bare boobies
Geez hope Corm don’t this post.I was immersed in bare boobies
How many had Manginas? I bet you had to learn the hard way out there mate! Do you ever get confused for a ladyboy yourself?
At Huntingdon, late November 2003, Jair Du Cochet was the first horse to beat a rusty Best Mate ( in his seasonal comeback ) in two years, where he won by eight lengths. The French trained horse, it should be added, failed miserably when odds on favourite to land the King George.
I still think Long Run has improvement in him. After all, he is only five.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
According to the BHA the third highest rated horse in this contest is The Nightingale. His recent form is good. Nicholls says he likes soft ground. Should be 25/1 or lower surely?
At Huntingdon, late November 2003, Jair Du Cochet was the first horse to beat a rusty Best Mate ( in his seasonal comeback ) in two years, where he won by eight lengths. The French trained horse, it should be added, failed miserably when odds on favourite to land the King George.
I still think Long Run has improvement in him. After all, he is only five.
Jair du Cochet
was beaten in that years King George Himself, he was never an odds on shot to do so mind,5/2fav i think! He made a huge blunder at the 4th,or should i say his Jockey made a huge blunder,bit like he did in the RSA actually,Jacques Ricou was his name,he rode like Steve smith eccles in one of those fat suits!He then went on to blunder his chances away,he was only 6yo at the time and had the world at his feet,he did go on to win a recognised Gold Cup trial in the Pillar chase! Best Mate was also a 6yo when he got beat in the King George i believe he was also 5/2,so, so long as Long Run gets placed ideally 2nd and running on then all is not lost,i dont think he will mind!
- Total Posts 17716
According to the BHA the third highest rated horse in this contest is The Nightingale. His recent form is good. Nicholls says he likes soft ground. Should be 25/1 or lower surely?
Never in a month of Sundays is he rated 3rd highest Kasp. Would be 3rd Highest in the Peterburgh either. Think you messed up somewhere mate.
BHA website today has Kauto at 190, Albertas Run 168, The Nightingale 167, Burton Port 166 etc .Am I missing something?
The Nightingale is rated 167, a mere pound behind the legendary Albertas Run,168 and Kauto star a whopping 190!
BHA website today has Kauto at 190, Albertas Run 168, The Nightingale 167, Burton Port 166 etc .Am I missing something?
Only the fact that both Forpady (167) and Sizing Europe (160) haven"t got there ratings marked up!
So The Nightingale is third equal – surely still seems worth a punt at the right price then?
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.