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Not really had much of a look at the race but Duke of Marmalade should have the field nicely SPREADED and aslong as he does not get in a JAM should win with plenty of ZEST.
You’re Fired!
I have not sensed any poster on her overwhelmingly declaring Duke Of Marmalade to hack up.
Willoughby was pumping his tyres on the video forum. I guess a bit of propaganda was thrown in to add intrigue to the discussion but interesting to note that the pedigree influence includes two Belmont Stakes winners and Shuailaan.
This article should prove any concerns you have over the pedigree.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/NOW/Breeding/ … id=BH46059
Still torn? Well, I am. I keep looking at the Ganay for a reference.
Duke – High class (proximity to Dylan Thomas and Ramonti last year for the doubters), watch his 3 races this season one after the other and look at the improvement with each run. He’s not a speed horse, he lengthens more than quickens and finished like a train at Ascot last time so trip will not be a problem imo.
Youmzain – High class but 1 major problem today, the track. The uphill finish blunts his finish badly. Was swinging along at 2f in this last year and couldnt accelerate up the hill, all his best work late is on flat or downhill tracks. Add in his trainers couldnt give a **** attitude towards tactics and I think he has a major task to win today.
Lucarno – Group 2 horse at the trip for me. His 122 last time factors in a 5lb penalty in a race where weight was never a factor. Horse has no finish and only chance today is a repeat of the tactics at Newmarket which is unlikely to be allowed. If you want to see what happens to Lucarno at an even pace over 12f at Ascot look no further than the King Edward last year.
Macarthur – Group1 class. Tough horse, would have won the Coronation Cup with a more conservative ride imo. Stable priority probably eleswhere but big place claims.
Ask – Group 1 class. Out and out grinder at this trip. Will probably not get the out and out test of stamina he needs and would probably like slower ground and a longer run in. Conditions not really in favour to find 4/5 lbs improvement to win this but certainly has place claims.
Papal Bull – Not good enough, needs a trip in excess of 12f.
Red Rock Canyon – Cant see him having the stamina to last the 12f if he’s made use of early which he probably will be.
I would want evens about Duke of Marmalade which is unlikely so my bet is a place lay of Lucarno at 11/8 on BF.
Back to reality.
Have had a £10 win which is rare for me on Duke of Marmalade.
Extra 2f will not be a problem and having 2 pacemakers will ensure a good gallop.
Why all this talk on Ask not acting on a firm surface when his best run is on it?
The race in Canada was on firm!
I can see he may not want too much racing on it, being round actioned but that is all.
Mark
Value Is EverythingAre there any Papal Bull fans left that think he’s not a hound of the highest order?
Hes a nightmare isnt he?
But what was Jim McGrath on about? "greatest upset" and all that
Youmzain had a dreadful run but not sure that a clearer passage would have made any difference
Very good race and what a ride by Johnny Murtagh
Horse is a lot better over 1m2f but the way he battled back was unbelievable.
Harsh in the extreme DJ- his best ever performance I would suggest, and the suspicion that he’d have won if coming just a fraction later. Fantastic race to watch.
Definitely a career best effort, but he’s pulled out defeat from the jaws of victory by pulling himself up on hitting the front. Wouldn’t you say that for a horse capable of pulling 9 lengths clear of the third in a King George, his CV is a little bit thin of big race wins.
Thats how i saw it too DJ. Reminded me a bit of Newbury last year when he just wouldnt go through with it (if memory is correct)
But overall, this was yet another example of Stoute improving them with age
Papal Bull has always had tonnes of ability, have a look at his King Edward VII where he laughed at the Leger and Breeders Cup Turf winner, the problem has always been harnessing it correctly. For so long it looked like they had today, but as TDK implies (I think), Peslier has got him there too early.
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For the first time this season Papal Bull gets his ideal circumstances (Strong pace on fast ground) and runs the race of his life – probably 7lbs better than anything he’s done before – and he’s getting crabbed?
Have Timeform taken over your brains?
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