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Couldn’t have him DJ- for one he’s a 5 year old- only 6 horses older than 4 have won this since 1951, and it’s also very hard to win a King George coming off a beating like he took at Ascot. I’d make him place lay material.
Havent had a proper look at the race yet but I wouldnt write off Ask’s place claims either. He’s an out and out 12f grinder, the strong gallop will be there for him, he likes the track and the Canadian race has worked out to be a decent Group 1 through Quijano. Has had the foot problem and probably wouldnt want it to firm but apparently watering at Ascot hasnt been ruled out. I dont think he has the very high class of Duke of Marmalade but a decent Group 1 horse nonetheless imo.
The five year old stat wouldnt bother me at all. Hes only run 11 times and we are all well aware how Stoute can improve horses at this age
How relevant are any historical stats in the context of this race. There was a time when it went to a top-class 3-y-o. He did all that and more I expected of him over 10f in the PofW. Forgive the football analogy, but 10f in the Prince on Wales was his away leg against Duke of Marmalade and he was 7/1, I’m happy to back him at 10’s in the home leg.
Given that Lucarno and Ask will want every inch of this race and there is a risk that DOM may only just get home, i wonder how Ballydoyles pacemaker(s) will be employed??
The same question has occurred to me- I just hope they’re not instructed to mess around with anything else that wants to go on. I’m presuming Red Rock Canyon will be their only pacemaker.
Very true
So why have a pacemaker at all for DOM? And how will Mount nelson and Macarthur be employed?
I suspect Mount Nelson will only run if Duke of Marmalade doesn’t. Macarthur will be there on his own merits and will surely sit handy. Presumably Red Rock Canyon is there to ensure an even pace rather than set an overly strong gallop.
I suppose its more relevant to wonder whether Lucarno will be employed in the same way as at Newmarket. Nothing to lose really. Ask will have the stamina to go with him and can race prominently too (as i think he did against Scorpion)
I think Coolmoore will try and employ pacemakers in the same way as they did in last years Eclipse. When George Washington had mile speed, the two pacemakers tried to slow it right down. If Ryan Moore hadn’t been aware they’d have been successful. It is up to the likes of Fortune not to allow them to, by passing those pacemakers. Not allowing Coolmore to turn the King George in to a comparative speed test. Lucarno and Ask are capable of doing this, Youmzain though will have to rely on others.
Mark
Value Is EverythingI think Coolmoore will try and employ pacemakers in the same way as they did in last years Eclipse. When George Washington had mile speed, the two pacemakers tried to slow it right down. If Ryan Moore hadn’t been aware they’d have been successful.
I understand the point you’re making, Mark, but the above isn’t strictly true as Authorized finished ahead of George Washington.
I prefer Ask as an ew bet rather than Lucarno.
I agree david, Youmzain and Ask are my pair against the field (hoping for good ground).
Ask has been plagued his whole career with foot problems so we havent seen the best of him yet. The horse who beat a bang in form scorpion at chester last year could be up to winning this under a good ride, like youmzain though, a bit of cut wouldnt go amiss.If it comes up gd-fm then DOM obviously has a good chance but I may be tempted to have a go on campanologist if he turns up.
I think Coolmoore will try and employ pacemakers in the same way as they did in last years Eclipse. When George Washington had mile speed, the two pacemakers tried to slow it right down. If Ryan Moore hadn’t been aware they’d have been successful.
I understand the point you’re making, Mark, but the above isn’t strictly true as Authorized finished ahead of George Washington.
Not what I mean Gus,
When the pace slowed, Ryan went on the outside of the pacemakers, forcing them to go faster again. Without that move the pace would’ve been slower than it actually was. Had they been able to go slower, making it greater test of speed, George may well have finished in front of Authorised.
Mark
Value Is EverythingWill Mount Nelson or Macarthur be used as pacemakers ?I believe not. It is my belief that they will race on their merit.Coolmore want to breed from the best and must find out which is the best to do so.Coolmore and the Aga Khan have been use each others studs. See Moonstone and Montmartre. So if Youmzain (Sinndar) proves the best they will use him. Youmzain nearly won the Arc and I have a feeling that in a truly run race on Saturday(like the Arc is) Coolmore are testing their four y.o talent against the best older horses. One pacemaker will make it a truly run race.I take Youmzain to win.
Disagree with you there andy o’d. Coolmore’s main business is breeding so it’s only worth their while if their won horses are the stallions to breed from. The racing is merely a means to that end.
Last year Scorpion won the Coronation Cup on Oaks day at Epsom and then ran as pacemaker (in MY opinion) to Dylan Thomas in the King George just 2 races later over the same conditions (12f on Gd/Sft ground)*.
Duke of Marmalade would be worth far more at stud than any of the other Ballydoyle horses in the race so the it would be better for him to win it.
*: this has already been debated on here so I’m not bringing this up to open that old argument but merely to show that Coolmore’s other horses may not necessarily be running entirely on merit.
Regarding the race, I couldn’t back any horse in a Group 1 with stamina doubts, let alone at odds-on. Duke of Marmalade may well win and if he does then I’m happy to shrug my shoulders and take it on the chin.
However it’s Youmzain for me here. If he had been given a better ride in the Coronation Cup (closer to the pace) he would be going for a Gr1 hat-trick on Saturday so if connections have found the key by racing closer to the pace, then I can’t really see the horse getting beaten.There are two horses in this King George that could remain the key to two others horses in this King George.
Understandably, it’s Red Rock Canyon to manipulate terms but Lucarno and Ask can counter-attack with their own tactics in order to benefit them. If Red Rock Canyon clicks into a high gear then the pair have nothing to lose by responding accordingly.
Is this race tactically out of reach for Duke Of Marmalade and Aidan O’Brien? Probably not, but you wonder how the horse with those 12 furlong doubts is going to hold off the Arc and King George runner-up.
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