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They’re the first 3 in the betting (best prices, RP table), and effectively a 1/3 shot, so it’s hardly a bold shout.
Personally, I would favour both Captain Chris and Somersby to finish ahead of Kauto and Master Minded.Yes, the combined price of one of the three favourites is around 1/3 Reet (you’re learning
) I’d have their combined win chance at even shorter than 1/3 (ie more than 75% chance).When assessing the chance of possible non-stayers (eg Master Minded) they often do not have as good a place chance as win odds indicate. When a horse who has good enough form over
shorter trips
,- then
IF
he
stays
the longer trip (ie capable of running to that form) it has a good chance of winning
and/or being placed
. Where as
if
this horse (with good enough form over shorter trips) does
not
stay, not only is it highly unlikely to win… It is also unlikely to be placed. Because once a horse hits that non-staying wall, it goes backwards at a rate of knots.
In contrast, with a horse
highly likely to stay
… if it is
not
good enough to win, it has a good chance of being placed/run to form.
In my opinion neither Kauto Star or Master Minded are good each way or place bets (value-wise).
With Master Minded, if he stays he has a good chance of winning. In probability terms, I think he has a good ahance of staying, but if he doesn’t it would not surprise me if Master Minded finished last.
Reason for backing Kauto Star is not because I think he’s a great price, he isn’t (though a fair one). It’s because I believe he’ll be backed by the public. Allowing me to lay him later at a profit.
Kauto Star had a hard race at Haydock, for which at first I believed he would not recover in time for Kempton. However, Nicholls seems adamant the old boy is fine. If my first thought is right, then once more, I would not be surprised if Kauto Star did not finish in the first half of the field.
So there is a good chance Somersby and/or Captain Chris finishing ahead of Master Minded and/or Kauto Star. However, I have not backed them to finish in front of those two. If one and/or the other run to form, they have a good chance of winning. Where as both Somersby and Captain Chris need to reach another level in their form to actually win it (providing of course any of the top three run to form). Even though both Somersby and Captain Chris have a fair chance of beating one or more of the top three home (without winning the race themselves).
Incidentally Reet, although neither Captain Chris or Somersby is proven at the trip, I agree, both are likely to get it, or even improve for it.
Value Is Everythingbig anomaly on Captain Chris with paddy power 8-1 and 1/4 odds place e/w ANTEPOST Rules so will be three places even if NRs . So place odds 3.0 v 2.4 on exchange. Get on quick.
It seems with Somersby you either love or hate him. He’s a good-looker and admirably consistent but probably 7 to 10 lbs overrated IMO. I believe the reason for this is that much of his form revolves round Master Minded who was also overrated for a long time and, arguably still is.
After what might well have been his best performance, to my mind, runner-up to Sizing Europe in the Arkle, he was raised just 3lbs. He kept that rating of 156 for his next two defeats and then ran 3rd, beaten almost 10L to MM for which he was raised 6 lbs then 8 more for his short head defeat by MM at Ascot.
He might also be a shade quirky, beaten in both close finishes he’s been involved in, and sometimes giving me the impression, in a few of his races, that he’s not putting it all in, though that could be something physical.
In his favour is a 100% record at Kempton but I’d always rather be a layer.
"kasparov" wrote: big anomaly on Captain Chris with paddy power 8-1 and 1/4 odds place e/w ANTEPOST Rules so will be three places even if NRs . So place odds 3.0 v 2.4 on exchange. Get on quick.
Not really 3.0 either though is it. If you have €100 e/w on Captain Chris and he places, you’ll get back €300, a profit of €100, and therefore 1/2, not 2/1. On the exchanges you can back him to place without the win part of the bet so if you don’t think he’ll win the 2.4 is a much better bet.
I think Master Minded could be well up to winning this race as he is the best jumper in the race and this will be very important over 3 miles in Kempton and he could also have too much speed for the likes of Kauto Star at this stage of his career and Long Run.
Not really 3.0 either though is it. If you have €100 e/w on Captain Chris and he places, you’ll get back €300, a profit of €100, and therefore 1/2, not 2/1. On the exchanges you can back him to place without the win part of the bet so if you don’t think he’ll win the 2.4 is a much better bet.
Well I think it is 3.0 because you can hedge back the win part at 9.0 (8/1) by laying on an exchange leaving you with a net 3.0 rather than a measly 2.4 for the place. You could also hedge back the 3.0 with the 2.4 for a guaranteed profit whatever happens.
The 8/1 has gone now anyway as it was an obvious rick.
I wonder what tactics the Smith/Nicholls team will employ. If they work on the theory that Long Run doesn’t like being distracted then maybe they will make sure either MM or Kauto jumps upsides him. Unfortunately I suspect MM doesn’t like being distracted either.
My pace analysis is there will be Nacarat (if he runs)and Golan Way leading the way until they run out of steam, then racing prominently will be Kauto, LR and Diamond Harry, with maybe Somersby, MM and CC a bit further back as they will want to conserve energy to get the trip and hopefully take advantage of the others going off too fast.
Trifecta forecast LR,CC,Kauto. LR’s jumping is a bit suspect but Kempton is easier than Cheltenham and I think he will get round.
Nacarat 66s with Sportingbet, am I the only one who thinks that is a cracking EW bet? Somersby, Master Minded, Captain Chris never ran over the trip before.
Surprising Nacarat is such long odds. I think this must be because he is a doubtful runner. Apparently he wants good ground. But 50/1 e/w NRNB with Ladbrokes might be worth a go as he was 4th in this race in Jan. Unfortunately if one of the others drops out e/w would only pay 2 places.
I made a terribly inebriated post the other day, and reading it the next day, I felt awfully ashamed! Beer and a laptop don’t mix!
Captain Chris ain’t no banker, I don’t even necessarily fancy him for the win. If my money was going on the race, it’d either be Long Run for the win, or the Captain e/w. I honestly can’t see any of the others getting involved in the first two.
To conclude, Long Run should win if he jumps every fence okay. Yogi’s been there and schooled him like last year and he is the best horse in the race.
There is the whole Captain Chris thing niggling away though, fly in the ointment and all that…………….
Nacarat 66s with Sportingbet, am I the only one who thinks that is a cracking EW bet? Somersby, Master Minded, Captain Chris never ran over the trip before.
How do you ride a horse who’s best and only chance is to try and gallop them into the ground but won’t see out the trip in this class if he tries to?
He’s 66/1 with good reason to be honest.
I made a terribly inebriated post the other day, and reading it the next day, I felt awfully ashamed! Beer and a laptop don’t mix!
Captain Chris ain’t no banker, I don’t even necessarily fancy him for the win. If my money was going on the race, it’d either be Long Run for the win, or the Captain e/w. I honestly can’t see any of the others getting involved in the first two.
To conclude, Long Run should win if he jumps every fence okay. Yogi’s been there and schooled him like last year and he is the best horse in the race.
There is the whole Captain Chris thing niggling away though, fly in the ointment and all that…………….
There’s a horse called Kauto Star in the race who isn’t so bad on his day. All he needs to do is turn up in the same form as he was in at Haydock and no way on earth will Long Run beat him.
The horse Long Run beat last year wasn’t even a shadow of Kauto. Not unless you think Riverside Thetare a mere novice is so special he to could beat an in form Kauto Star even if he is getting on a wee bit.
I do have very severe doubts about Kauto Star beating Long Run in the Gold Cup if the old fella gets that far, but round Kempton where he is truly in his element he’ll do exactly the same as he did to him at Haydock.
The betting to me is topsy turvy and Kauto Star who showed that he’s in good form should be fav and Long Run who ran like a cow and needs to come back to his best and prove that he didn’t win last years King George just because Kauto was off colour. And of course he’s got to put in a 100% clear round in this company or he’ll finish even further behind round this track than he did at Haydock.
The horse Long Run beat last year wasn’t even a shadow of Kauto. Not unless you think Riverside Thetare a mere novice is so special he to could beat an in form Kauto Star even if he is getting on a wee bit.
It was a cracking race. Good time, good gallop, Riverside Theatre is a top horse. No way in hell are the bookies going to allow Long Run to go off at 4-1 after winning this and the GC last year.
Something for Kauto fans – ran badly both times after going over to Down Royal. Didn’t make the trip this year and was given the better Haydock prep.
My big race analysis:
CAPTAIN CHRIS
Handsome individual who surprised many with his Arkle success. Always looked the type to go far over fences and has been a model of consistency since day one. His jumping improved throughout last season and that particular attribute, coupled with an abundance of stamina, made all the difference in his Grade One triumphs at the Cheltenham and Punchestown Festivals last Spring over two miles.
There are question marks surrounding his ability to stay three miles, but his pedigree suggests that it shouldn’t pose a problem (by King’s Theatre, out of a dam who won over three miles) and he looked for all the world like he would appreciate this trip when finishing late and fast in the Scilly Isles at Sandown over two miles-five.
A greater cause for concern would be soft ground. He should stay, regardless, but the form book suggests that his best efforts have come on good ground, including five of his six victories. He has also posted much improved efforts on top of the ground.
He looked in need of the run on his seasonal bow at Exeter over an inadequate trip, conceding 6lb to the classy Medermit. He never travelled or jumped with any fluency, yet still looked most unlucky when unseating Richard Johnson at the last. Medermit has done that form no harm and it was quite an effort from Captain Chris, all things considered.
One should expect the 7YO to improve this season and benefit greatly for the step up in trip. The presence of Golan Way should ensure the strong pace required to see Captain Chris at his best – particularly in the jumping department – and he has all the necessary attributes to run a big race in this type of contest. The only worry would have be the ground. Anything on the soft side of good would be detrimental to his chances, particularly when it would benefit his biggest rivals.
In short, there’s no telling just how good he could be.
DIAMOND HARRY
Another good looking, yet fragile customer. Fast approaching nine years, but has seen the racecourse on just fourteen occasions, including once last season when landing the Hennessy Gold Cup.
A strong traveller and sound jumper with plenty of stamina, those attributes will certainly stand him in good stead in this contest, as Kauto Star has demonstrated on more than one occasion. It’s quite noticeable, however, that all his defeats have coincided with a step up into genuine Grade One company, but he is still pretty much unexposed as a staying chaser, granted the right conditions.
Unlike Time For Rupert and Long Run, Diamond Harry never flinched when matching Kauto Star stride for stride in the Betfair Chase. He jumped every bit as fluently as the winner and was still on the bridle turning for home before tiring in the straight.
Lack of fitness was very much overlooked as the primary reason for his defeat at Haydock, considering his record strongly suggests that he is best when fresh. However, it would be naïve to think that he was at the peak of his powers that day after an eleventh hour injury sustained when declared to return at Wetherby three weeks earlier.
Connections can be forgiven for not focusing entirely on long term targets after the disappointment of last season, post-Hennessy, and they arguably had bigger goals for their talented, yet fragile star this season. There was a lot to like about his seasonal return and it would be no surprise to see him narrow the gap considerably on Boxing Day. The conditions of the race should suit and, granted some give in the ground, he is a major player.
GOLAN WAY
Admirable front-runner who has developed into a decent chaser. Proved that his Aintree third behind dual Grade One winner, Quito De La Roque, was no fluke with an impressive victory in the Future Stars Chase at Sandown. He jumped superbly that day and had RSA Chase winner, Bostons Angel, back in third.
That form still leaves him with plenty to find and he will almost certainly have his work cut out trying to dominate this much classier field. Sure to give his best, but in all likelihood is out of his depth.
KAUTO STAR
Hard to submit a summary on a horse that you could easily write a book about, but I suppose the only way to describe Kauto Star is to consider him the most decorated National Hunt horse in history.
This will be his fortieth visit to the racetrack during a stellar career and his thirtieth start in this country, during which, over trips ranging from two miles to three miles-two, he has never failed to finish outside the first three in completed starts.
He appeared as good as ever at Haydock on his seasonal return. Trained to the second and making most at a decent gallop, Kauto Star simply out jumped, outstayed and outclassed his rivals, breaking his own course record in the process.
Kauto Star was primed to run the race of his life that day, unlike his chief rival and conqueror last season, Long Run, but the fact that Kauto Star broke his own course record that day strongly suggests there was more to his performance than simply stripping fitter than the King George / Gold Cup hero.
He reportedly made a noise on the gallops last year and, as a result, was failing to see out his races. That was clear to see, especially in the Gold Cup when he was travelling as well as anything turning for home, only to weaken after two out. There was no sign of that at Haydock, where he was actually pulling away at the finish.
A more valid debate surrounds his ability to repeat that level of performance just five weeks after such a gruelling race. A few years ago it would not have posed a problem, but Kauto Star is nearly twelve and against some serious, younger rivals he will need to be at the peak of his powers to come out on top.
However, the King George boasts the greatest roll of honour in this sphere and it takes a special type of horse to adapt to this type of contest. It requires a horse capable of travelling and jumping at pace around a sharp, flat track. As a result, there is nowhere to hide and any stamina limitations will be cruelly exposed at the business end of the race.
It is a race that rewards class like no other, and Kauto Star is just that. He will jump and he will stay – two combined attributes that just about every horse in the race has yet to prove. He clearly retains plenty of enthusiasm and if his ability is retained in a similar manner then he is the one to beat, but after such a punishing race that is a big ‘if’.
LONG RUN
Dual Grade One winner in his native France and arrived on these shores with an almighty reputation. After an impressive start in the Feltham and Kingmaker, respectively, Long Run looked far from the superstar predicted by many with a couple of rather underwhelming efforts in the RSA Chase and Paddy Power Gold Cup.
He put those performances firmly behind him with an impressive performance in the King George, smashing Kauto Star by nineteen lengths in the process, before coming of age to land the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March, where he powered up the hill to beat Denman and the weakening Kauto Star.
He was expected to improve for his seasonal bow, but was perhaps a shade disappointing in the Betfair Chase behind Kauto Star. His old adversary, jumping with renowned accuracy and speed, pressurised his younger rival into several errors before outstaying him from two out.
Long Run proved in defeat that he has the heart for a battle, which compliments his undoubted ability, but his jumping is still the greatest cause for concern. In a race where they will go a breakneck pace from start to finish, he will need to jump better than he ever has to secure a second King George – there is simply no room for error.
We have seen just how lethal a class horse with the necessary attributes can be suited by the demands of this contest, and Long Run has proved in both course and distance victories just how well Kempton suits. He is the reigning champion and will be a tough nut to crack – providing his jumping doesn’t crack under pressure first.
MASTER MINDED
A true superstar over the last four years, winning eight times at the highest level including two Champion Chase triumphs. Has been slightly hit and miss since his unbeaten 2008 / 2009 campaign, but there’s no denying he is a class act on his day and has clearly benefited for the step up in trip.
This will represent the toughest task of his career, over a trip he is not certain to appreciate. He looks a far from certain stayer based on what he has produced on the racecourse, but he will have no problem with the forecast strong pace and his quick fencing will be a serious asset in this contest. The predicted good to soft ground should suit and he is unbeaten in completed starts on right-handed tracks in this country. Kempton will give him every opportunity to see out this trip, and he will need to against the calibre of opposition he faces here.
Paul Nicholls attempted to land this prize in 2004 with another Champion Chase hero, Azertyuiop, who ran a highly respectable third behind Kicking King, but arguably failed to see out the trip. Master Minded has been trained with this race in mind and ticks all the right boxes, but there is one glaring cause for concern.
NACARAT
Has acquitted himself well in the previous two renewals of this contest, but enjoyed his finest hour in the Totesport Bowl at Aintree last season. Is very much at his best on flat tracks, as his fine record around here and Aintree illustrates.
He has been beaten a long way on his last three starts and wouldn’t want too much rain to get into the ground. A Grade One winner in his own right, but it would come as something as a surprise if he can improve on the fourth position he has twice recorded.
SOMERSBY
A typically imposing, good looking type trained by Henrietta Knight. Has failed to make the frame only once in twelve starts over fences, but his Kempton success at the end of October was his first in nearly two years.
Has seen the backside of Master Minded four times in the last twelve months, but there’s every reason to believe that he can reverse the form over this longer trip – his pedigree certainly gives plenty of hope. His sire, Second Empire, was responsible for the 147-rated staying chaser Auroras Encore, and also Strangely Brown, who was placed in a Grade Two hurdle event over three miles.
It should also be noted that Henrietta Knight is more than aware of the type required to compete in this contest. Having landed this race with the likes of Best Mate and Edredon Bleu (high class two miler), she also saddled the 158-rated Racing Demon to finish a creditable third behind Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer in 2006.
The going will pose no problems and he is unbeaten in two starts at this venue. He will need to improve, but there’s every chance the trip can bring about that improvement and he has place credentials, but this is a very hot contest and there is no room for the odd mistake that is prone to make.
CONCLUSION
A truly fascinating and high class renewal of the race, with doubts surrounding every participant in the star-studded line up.
It’s only natural that he is not quite the force of old, but Kauto Star will be hard to beat if he is within touching distance of his very best. He had a hard race against Long Run last time and one has to question whether this sharp test is ideal for him at this stage of his career, particularly against some speedier, younger rivals.
Captain Chris, Master Minded and Somersby are high class two mile chasers attempting this trip for the first time. This type of contest will play right to their strengths if able to see out the trip, but here has to be serious doubts surrounding Master Minded more than any other.
Long Run will encounter a far different test to the one he did twelve months ago. This is a better renewal, in my opinion, and with the presence of Golan Way, Nacarat and a host of high class two mile challengers he will be asked to go a shade quicker then he ever has before. That will place greater emphasis on his jumping and you can be sure Team Ditcheat will have identified a few chinks at Haydock and will look to exploit them.
Diamond Harry is yet to conclusively prove that he is capable of mixing it at the highest level, but there was a lot to like about his overall effort at Haydock and this strong traveller will be ideally suited to the demands of this contest.
It’s hard to be certain of any horse in this type of contest. Of the two market principles, Kauto Star could be an attractive place lay taking into consideration the level of opposition and his age, but those younger legs have plenty to prove themselves. Long Run looked something special last season, but his jumping will be tested like never before.
I think Diamond Harry is the each-way bet of the race, and Captain Chris could easily come of age and stamp himself as the new staying superstar taking us into the new era.
A fine preview Bosranic, thanks.
Mr Nicholls. Is a master trainer but also a master of excuses. If KS was making a noise last season, it suggests he had breathing problems. As wizard of the wind op, PFN, knows that such problems do not resolve themselves. I thought he’d resist running KS here and save him for a Gold Cup curtain call. But I understand C Smith was strongly in favour of a KG run. I think they will regret their actions come Monday eve.
I was more impressed by LR at Haydock than in either of his championship wins. He missed every fence bar the last one going down the back on circuit two. To do that and still be in contention is astonishing IMO. He made 4 errors winning his Gold Cup and must be very brave as well as powerful. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win this after a handful of mistakes.
Diamond Harry is too big and gangly to be suited by Kempton IMO. It will be his first run right handed. Also, his jock has deserted him to ride at Wetherby
MM is about 10lbs overrated, I think, and always has been. Same applies to Somersby due to his frequent runs against MM. Cap Chris could be anything and I will be having a small bet on him just in case.
Golan Way EW without LR was recommended at 40s a while back and though that price has gone, I’d still choose that as the best bet. Normally a reliable jumper, he is very gutsy, built for Kempton, improving and will hopefully battle on for place money.
Not really much to add to that fantastic preview by Bosranic.
Just to say I strongly fancy Long Run here, 5/4 at the moment is a tad short will be looking for something better than that the morning of the race.
The main danger for me will be CC, think the 3 miles will really suit, just waiting to see how the ground comes up before deciding whether to back him.
Many thanks, steeplechasing and pants.
On the topic of Kauto’s breathing problem last year, Paul Nicholls did say that had he been younger they would certainly have operated on him.
There is every reason to believe that he was right on the evidence of what we saw last season. He was travelling better than anything coming round the final bend in the Gold Cup – to the extent that Ruby was actually holding on to him a bit – but the second they hit the hill he was running on empty.
There was a marked contrast between that effort and the one we saw at Haydock, where he ran right to the line after setting a decent pace. As I said in my previous post, the fact that he broke the course record speaks volumes about his retention of ability and wellbeing.
I can understand why people are slightly anxious about his impending effort and at current prices I couldn’t touch him because there’s no telling just how much Haydock took out of him.
Long Run is probabaly the best horse in the race at this very moment, but with Golan Way and Nacarat both in attendance and so many talented speed horses, he can not afford to make too many errors – one big mistake and it’s curtains. They simply won’t come back to him in this race, around this track.
Long Run was ridden prominently last year and Master Minded is never far away in his races and will reportedly be ridden with confidence in his ability to see out the trip. It wouldn’t surprise me if Team Ditcheat take advantage of this and ride Master Minded – the quickest fencer in the game – alongside Long Run, hoping to pressurise him into a mistake.
I’m not saying this will be the 1992 Gold Cup all over again and Master Minded is certainly not in there to benefit Kauto, but Master Minded and Long Run could arguably hold similar positions in the race, and wouldn’t you want to take advantage of the situation?
I’m not worried about the track regarding Diamond Harry. This will be his first attempt going right-handed, but Nick Williams has stated that it wasn’t by design they kept him to left-handed tracks.
He’s a fine athlete and the fact that he travels so well in his races suggests the track won’t be an issue.
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