- This topic has 386 replies, 69 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 9 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Reading between the PFN lines, he has no idea how Kauto will run. Whatever the horse is showing him at home is far from certain to be produced on track and he’s more aware of that than anyone.
The rumours were that PFN wanted to run only one of the pair and Clive Smith the two – we now know who won the ‘debate’ as he has done with the Sam Thomas one and all the others.
I agree with MarkTT that LR should be fav. However, the odds say he has a 40% chance versus Kauto with just under 20%. I think it should be more like LR 40% Kauto 30% MM 8% CC 8% the rest 14%.
Has anyone got any recent updates on Captain Chris’s fitness? I think if he lines up on the day he could seriously be the one to upset the apple cart. I predict a place at least and if he’s there on the day, with Long Run and Kauto probably being backed to the nines, he could well go off at double figure odds, massive value
Apparently he’s doing a lot better than he was and worked well the other day. I think it’s today he’s due to be scoped today so we should get some news by tomorrow.
Not the ideal preparation for the King George though is it?
Despite the fact he looked likely to win at Exeter he took along time to come to himself last season and needed that run badly.
PH was very keen to give him another run to get him spot on for the King George but he simply wasn’t right so they lost the chance.
Now he’s fighting against time to try and get him 100% at home.
I really fancied his chance but without that second outing ??? hard to be confident.
Which incidentally can be said about the 4 principles.
If Kauto turns up in te same form as Haydock he wins but might not.
If he doesn’t and Long Run jumps like a buck he wins.
If Master Minded gets the trip with the speed he possesses he wins
If Captain Chris can bring his Arkle form to Kempton and improves for the trip he wins.
Think I’ll do a Ginger and back them all.
HGM, Mr Hobbs has already had a rough enough first half of the season with Fingal Bay the only silver lining on an otherwise big black cloud. I can’t see how Captain Chris would have the wasted and potentially harmful run unless in tip top condition. He had a near enough full race in the Haldon, and if he lines up on Boxing Day, I’d imagine he would be fully fit, as he was only suffering from the human equivalent of a cold apparently. I wouldn’t back ante-post, but if he’s there, not only will his price be longer, but he could well be the spanner in the works.
What’s so special about Captain Chris? He is rated 164 against 182 for LR and behind 4 other contenders. He has never run over 3 miles and has been ill lately.
The argument must be he is progressive whereas the others are well-exposed but it’s taking a lot on trust.
What’s so special about Captain Chris? He is rated 164 against 182 for LR and behind 4 other contenders. He has never run over 3 miles and has been ill lately.
The argument must be he is progressive whereas the others are well-exposed but it’s taking a lot on trust.
It means next to nothing what a horse just out of the Novice ranks is rated because they are always lower than successful seasoned campaigners. Long Run himself had an OR of 162 going into the King George last year. You are of course correct we can only guess how good Captain Chris is. Scares the hell out of me though and no way would Long Run even come close to giving him 18 lbs. Class horse for sure
.
My advice ( for what it’s worth
) :Lay Kauto Star … and Master Minded !
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
long run wins by process of elimination.
very much doubt that kauto can back up his haydock win at his age, in such a short space of time. was handed a soft lead there pretty much and long run will surely strip fitter this time. don’t buy into nicholls arguments that henderson would have got long run as fit as he could have got him as the betfair chase is such a prestigious race anyhow.
the aim has always been the king george and the gold cup. besides, henderson is carrying everything before him this year.
the others fall into the dubious stayers category. master minded i’m not convinced will stay. early on in his career, they didn’t even seem to think he stays 2 and half, now they are certain he’ll stay three? I don’t get it.
somersby ditto. he always seems to travel well over 2 and a half and then seem to find very little, which doesnt bode well for his hopes over three.
and captain chris has the same questions to answer as concerns his stamina, long run doesnt have those doubts, is 2/2 at the course and is probably the best horse full stop anyway.
That last post by ‘anonymous’ (sigh) is highly frustrating, and makes this renewal seem Mickey Mouse. If you highly unfancy Kauto and Master Minded this greatly, how will they place in a good race such as this?
I don’t personally think Kauto Star will win, and whether he’ll run a good race is debatable. It has been mentioned several times that Nicholls said the Betfair was his Gold Cup, and as a 12 year old that was trained especially for the race, how well will he be on Boxing Day?
I’m not having Master Minded at all for this race. HGM has raised a brilliant issue with him in that he doesn’t find anything under pressure, and anyone whom believes he’ll cruise round 3 miles on the bridle is quite frankly pissing into the wind.
Long Run was always going to need the Haydock run to gain some sort of fitness, and the fact he ran in a strong field, not at his best by some way and finished 2nd was a credit to him. He absolutely adores Kempton as we’ve already seen and we will see him back to his best here.
The only problem fly in the ointment for me is Captain Chris, who also loves Kempton, and despite what some have stated before on the topic of this race, DOES possess plenty of class and more than enough to win this. He made light work of 2 and a half miles round here(granted it was an egg and spoon race), but from what I’ve seen I see no reason why he can’t stay the trip.
Somersby is one many have mentioned but is a horse who unfortunately seems to be on a downward curve as Henrietta Knight just can’t seem to decide what to do with the horse. It just seems she’s sent him here a year too late.
I truly can’t make my mind up between Long Run and Captain Chris, but as a value seeker it has to be Captain Chris e/w. Sorry if I’ve over-posted about about this but I cannot stress how strongly I feel about this. Captain Chris e/w is the banker of the National Hunt season so far!not being funny but how can it be a "banker" when he’s never run over this trip before
not being funny but how can it be a "banker" when he’s never run over this trip before
Granted, the logistics aren’t all there, but would you like to exchange bank details over a wager?
Sorry, just re-read that and realised how much of a conman it made me seem
shall we agree to a gentleman’s agreement?- Total Posts 17716
I don’t buy into the theory that Long Run’s poor jumps in the Betfair were down to lack of fitness, else why did they feel the need to give him intensive schooling in the run-up to the race. It hardly suggests lack of intent, now does it, and smacks more of lack of confidence in what he had shown to that date?
There are. imo, very good reasons to believe Captain Chris will stay, but I wouldn’t write Somersby off just yet either. Both their lto runs strongly suggested warm-ups, and the latter has been crying out for 3m since his early days. With little between them on the ratings, and CC’s reported recent problems, I’d venture that 12/1 e.w. Somersby represents the safest bet in the race, at the moment.If Captain Chris doesn’t place I will parade around Kempton’s twilight sandpit in a Borat mankini!!
i’m not saying that captain chris won’t stay, but I just find it hard to believe that a horse that is unproven over the distance can be described as a banker. but good luck anyway.
as for exchanging bank details, thanks but no thanks.
as for somersby, are people really sure that he’ll stay 3 miles? its an interesting question, because while he often stays on at the end of races, equally theres been races over 2 and a half where he’s travelled very well and then found nothing.
surely it must be disconcerting in the context of this race that he couldnt even win last time at huntingdon. I see him described as a paceless tripless beast on another forum, seems a bit harsh but does have some logic behind it.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.