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Assessing the opinions of the professional tipsters and the trainers is often a desperately difficult art. Sometimes, you just know he or she is "giving you the good oil" (even when they’re wrong, alas!), and on other occasions you have to check yourself and raise your own doubts.
I feel immense gratitude for trainers who put us onto their winners. For example, Paul Nicholls was adamant, exuberantly adamant, that Kauto was in the form of his life, jumping well and burning up the gallops.
But we humans are not machines, are we. Generally, if I bet on a horse of Nick Henderson, I’m more confident than I am on a bet on a horse of any other trainer. Except, that is, for a few of the small stable arch-shrewdies, who seldom leave their money in the bookies’ satchels, when the money’s down. But their offerings are .. well.. jockey’s rations, in comparison with the conveyor belts of the big stables. But Nicholas let us down a wee bit on Saturday with one or two of his tips. So, it’s never an exact science – for them, any more than it is for us, when we ponder how much weight to put on their words on a particular occasion. Clive Brittain likes to help us out sometimes, but there are a fair few trainers who do. And they don’t have anything really to gain from it.
I’m quite interested in Kauto’s half-brother, Stone (of that ilk), and have a few baubees on him in the KG (as well as in the Tingle Creek), hoping that he or Master Minded win, but Pants pointed out, up-thread, that, despite sketchy jumping and needing a work-out or two, Long Run was only 8 lengths behind Kauto, pretty close to his peak. But, while the form of the big-money races tends to be much, much sounder, but with so many classy horses with untapped potential, as well as other imponderables, the KG is no sort of a race for a short shot from my perspective. Though I may not be able to stop myself trying to put a saver on LR if he should drift to 2s before the day.
KAUTO STONE will win KG next year paddy power gave me a 16/1 quote on him they did to me when i asked them.This year is to soon for him but next year be his year.
So would I be mad backing a long range Star/Stone KG double?
Probably
but it’d be funWhich horse from Ditchat will turns up at Kempton is as clear as mud at the moment. Unless someone knows something?
Clive Smith indicated that the plan was to win the Betfair with Kauto rest him then go for the Gold Cup.
Of course that was before Kauto kicked Long Run into touch so now they have gone back to the drawing board.
Realistically they were shooting at the moon thinking about the Gold Cup. He ran a blinder for 3 miles last season but unable to quiclen away like he used to when put under pressure his stamina gave out completely.
The chances of not being under pressure in any Gold Cup are extremely remote and his chances of one more big win surely must be at Kempton.
3 Horses have regained the King George crown Halloween Mandarin and Wayward Lad but Kauto would go down as the only horse to have won 5 if he were to be successful so the temptation to run him must be immense.
To be perfectly frank they would have to be nuts not to if he shows them he’s recovered from Haydock.
It’s all well and fine saying Master Minded is under the same ownership but the only reason he is being trained for the race is because the alarm bells indicated Kauto was all but finished.
Master Minded imo has very little chance of seeing out 3 miles in this class. He doesn’t react well to pressure and no way is he going to have things his own way with Long Run and Captain Chris in the race.
Kauto showed that the way to beat Long Run is to get him at it from some way out and force him into mistakes. I doubt if the plan would be for Master Minded or Captain Chris for that matter to be anywhere near the leaders until very late on. There must be doubts in PN’s mind that he may not get the trip so they have little choice but hold him up.
If Kauto Doesn’t run and his 2 main rivals are held up that should allow Long Run all the time in the world to get his jumping into a rhythm and the chances either can get to him without taxing their stamina to the full must be pretty slim.
I doubt if Captain Chris lacks the stamina and I’d have him way before before Master Minded. Of the two he looks the most likely to get the trip and there’s no denying his Arkle win stamped him as a high class chaser. Still don’t know where he found the speed to beat Finian’s Rainbow as he’s no more a 2 miler than flying in the air.
My hope is Kauto Star turns up and don’t much care what they do with Master Minded
. If Kauto runs and goes as well as he did at Haydock I’d make Captain Chris the main danger as Long Run is very likely to burst a gasket trying to match strides with the great horse.uess we’ll just have to wait and see but fingers crossed Kauto a makes it.
An easy oversight as Nupsala was not quite the animal The Fellow turned out to be, but very few have been.
On the eternal hunt for value I see William Hill offer 40/1 about Golan Way for the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day, in their betting without Long Run
The big race is now down to 15 runners after today’s declaration stage: Kauto Stone is the only notable absentee. His stablemate (and full brother) Kauto Star is not yet a certain runner with connections reported to be delaying a decision until about a week before the race.
It’s only a hunch but I think Kauto Star’s owner Clive Smith and trainer Paul Nicholls might decide to miss the race and give the great horse his swansong in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. It will be a tough decision for them as KS would be trying to win the King George for a record-breaking 5th time. But he had a hard race when beating Long Run in the Betfair at Haydock, before which he hadn’t run for six months.
Mr Nicholls will not know for sure if Kauto Star is fully recovered and ready for Boxing Day – he’s been misled by the horse before, and by Denman, when their demeanour at home has suggested they’re raring to go only for them to disappoint on raceday. What he now knows for certain is that he can get the horse fit enough after a long break to run to his best form. In winning the Betfair, Kauto Star ran to a Racing Post form Rating (RPR) of 180 – the highest his RPR has been in two years. He won his first Gold Cup with a RPR of 175, his second one with 185. Long Run ran to 183 RPR in winning this year’s Gold Cup and connections will know that reproduction of KS’s Betfair performance next March would see him go very close indeed to ending his career on the ultimate high.
It’s also worth remembering that Kauto Star’s connections have Master Minded in the King George too, a horse who almost certainly wouldn’t have the stamina for a Gold Cup (he might not even get home in the King George, in my opinion)
Anyway, should they choose to miss the KG, Long Run would start odds-on.
Let’s take a look at a few of the others, prominent in the betting, who are left in.
Master Minded
I mentioned that he is not sure to stay 3m. After his first failure over 20f at Aintree when beaten by Voy Por Ustedes (VPU), connections were convinced he was a non-stayer and said he’d be kept to 2 miles. But they had a change of mind after MM met the first decent 2m chaser he’d faced in Big Zeb. Since losing his Champion Chase crown to Big Zeb, he has run just once at 2m.
I think Master Minded’s visually breathtaking Champion Chase win in 2008 was as much a curse as a blessing for him. His official rating shot up from 170 to 186 and he simply was not that good. In VPU he’d beaten a 20f horse. MM was also at the peak of his ascendancy then – everything fell right on that one day and he’s never been able to live up to the hype, or the rating. I think too that he’s possibly a bit quirky – odd to say that about such a consistent horse, but it’s just the impression I get in some of his races.
Captain Chris
The Arkle winner is suffering from what his trainer describes as ‘a minor cold’ which has ruled him out of Thursday’s Peterborough although Mr Hobbs is hopeful he can still get him ready for Kempton. Even if he turns up, he’d need to be in top notch condition and also show a fair bit of improvement. I believe he’ll have no trouble staying the trip.
Somersby
This is another quirky horse and another over-rated one in my opinion. Since his trainer Hen Knight had best Mate, she (and the public) has been waiting for the successor. The odds against that happening are very high but she’s had Calgary Bay, the first impostor, then Somersby. His win in a three horse race against an unfit and over-rated Aiteen ThirtyThree was his first in almost two years. I don’t think he will suddenly come good on this his first attempt at 3 miles.
Riverside Theatre
Runner-up in the last renewal of the KG, he’s reported very unlikely to be ready for the race after a training setback. If he turned up 100% fit, he’d have a chance if Long Run’s jumping failed him.
Weird Al
Anorther who’d be in with a shout but his trainer was quoted last week as saying he would miss Kempton and run either at the Festival or Aintree. I suspect he’s left him in the race in case anything goes wrong with the principals.
Diamond Harry
Lat year’s Hennessy winner has talent although he’s injury prone. He’s big too, and Kempton’s sharp track might not be ideal. If he goes to post, it will be his first run on a right-handed course. Always considered best when fresh, he was beaten a long way first-time out in the Betfair and it’s hard to make a case for him.
Golan Way
This gelding won The Future Stars Chase at Sandown on Saturday by more than 3 lengths having led throughout. This year’s RSA winner Boston’s Angel was in third though it must be said that one seemed to run a lifeless race. Golan Way’s run before that was in a handicap hurdle at Cheltenham – he was unplaced. He ran there after refusing to race the previous time. His trainer, Sheena West, put that down to a ‘mix-up among the jockeys’, and watching the horse run, you’d never think he lacked enthusiasm.
His final outing last year was in The Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree – a Grade 2 where he was beaten 3 lengths into third by Quito De La Roque who has won 6 of his 7 Chases (2nd to Bostons Angel in the other one). If you watch the race you’d find it hard to believe Golan Way could finish so close after two massive blunders. His jumping at Sandown last time was almost flawless and he showed the same guts and will to win as he did at Aintree, having led all the way, he saw off the runner-up before the last and was still galloping strongly passing the line.
Golan Way is only 7 and has won 3 of his 6 Chases. Kempton should suit as he has won 5 from 7 going right-handed. His talented trainer thinks a lot of him and we might learn even more if she lets him take his chance in Huntingdon’s Peterborough Chase on Thursday (he’s won both his races at that track). If he runs and wins on Thursday – 5 of his potential King George opponents are also entered – he will shorten a fair bit for Boxing Day as his penalty for Saturday means him giving weight to everything at Huntingdon.
Assuming Long Run finishes in the first three at Kempton, Hills current offer on Golan Way effectively means he can be 4th and you’ll still get paid the place odds of 8/1. Should he run the race of his life and finish 2nd to Long Run (or, of course, win) you get paid at 40/1 for the win part.
So Golan Way (without Long Run) is my value each way bet for the King George.
Good luck
Think Long Run is a cracking piece, and all sentiment for Clive Smith’s two, should win easy.
Looking at ew value, Nacarat and Planet of Sound are 50s. Are either going to run?
Steeple: I like your thought process
I do this bet at the festival in the week building up to cover various ante post bets and also to enable me to have a bet in races where i believe the favourite is likely to win!The World Hurdle is a perfect example, backed Time For Rupert at 16s w/o Big Bucks and he ran a peach of a race to land the spoils.
I shall row in with you on this one as i like the big priced shots from small yards ala Cross Kennon
Cheers and best of luck
Good write up SteepleC!
The World Hurdle is a perfect example, backed Time For Rupert at 16s w/o Big Bucks and he ran a peach of a race to land the spoils.
You xxxxxx! I had 9’s TFR W/O BB.
Mind you, I did have BB as well at 9/4 ap.
Two wins in one race ain’t bad.
As far as Golan Way goes for the KG:
In my opinion he needs to lead these days, otherwise just might do a Wincers again. True he’s genuine once racing. With Boston’s running poorly and the second putting in an awful round of jumping, Golan Way didn’t have much to beat last time. At this point, I wouldn’t take 1000/1, even on the betting without market, until knowing if there is anything to take him on up front.For sure Long Run is the best horse in the race, but needs to be taken on considering his jumping. Last year had ear plugs and Yogied beforehand. There is no guarantee he’ll jump any better on Boxing Day than at Haydock. Kauto Star had a hard race there and I don’t expect him to turn up. Probably best fresh anyway these days. Not that Long Run had an easy race either. Want to be against both of the King George winners. Master Minded needs to be trusted to stay 3 miles. But definitely gets 2m4f and if he’s ever going to get it, it’s here. It’s difficult to find another alternative.
Diamond Harry would appeal if it were the other way around (LH) and is also fragile. Even his trainer says he’s difficult to train. Anyone who’s ever seen him in the flesh knows why. Fairly big horse but runs up light. There’s nothing of him.
Somersby is a possibility. Has a bit of a high head carriage, but it could be his poor strike rate is more to do with Henrietta running him over the wrong trip. To me he’s always run as though needing at least 2 1/2 miles. It is a little worrying he runs at Huntingdon. Can’t make my mind up whether to go in now or afterwards or not at all.
I’ve taken the 5/1 Master Minded.Value Is EverythingI have to agree. Good post steeple or ot would be if you missed out Golan Way
I would have thought the last type you would want to be backing is a front runner like him.
For one he has 24lbs to find with Kauto Star and that’s if you accept Kauto lowest rating since 2006.
The problem is he’ll want to be making the running and he’ll most likley be taken off his feet completely by the 5th last when the tempo more often than not increases dramatically. Once passed and all chance is gone he’ll stop to nothing and most likely be pulled up.
All said and done Golan Way’s best chance of being placed is if only 4 turn up
Thanks for the kind comments gentlemen.HGM, I’m kind of hoping K Star won’t run. There are doubts over quite a few others and I’m confident we will see a single-figure field and perhaps only 7 or 8 lining up.
Golan Way will certainly have it all to do trying to front run at championship pace but his young jock judged things to a T at Sandown and I think he will ride a sensible enough race to give the horse a chance of being in the first 4 – I’m confident that given the likely number of runners he is value though, as many say, you can’t eat value!
Good spot Steeplechasing. I see Golan is now 33-1 w/o LR. However some value in Master Minded at 7/2 w/o LR given he is only 5/1 with LR. Also Kauto at 3/1 w/o LR is tempting (unless he is a non-runner).
:D Thanks for the kind comments gentlemen.
HGM, I’m kind of hoping K Star won’t run. There are doubts over quite a few others and I’m confident we will see a single-figure field and perhaps only 7 or 8 lining up.
Golan Way will certainly have it all to do trying to front run at championship pace but his young jock judged things to a T at Sandown and I think he will ride a sensible enough race to give the horse a chance of being in the first 4 – I’m confident that given the likely number of runners he is value though, as many say, you can’t eat value!
Golan Way won’t be anywhere else other than up front early Steeple. Otherwise he just won’t go anywhere.
Value Is Everything:D Thanks for the kind comments gentlemen.
HGM, I’m kind of hoping K Star won’t run. There are doubts over quite a few others and I’m confident we will see a single-figure field and perhaps only 7 or 8 lining up.
Golan Way will certainly have it all to do trying to front run at championship pace but his young jock judged things to a T at Sandown and I think he will ride a sensible enough race to give the horse a chance of being in the first 4 – I’m confident that given the likely number of runners he is value though, as many say, you can’t eat value!
Golan Way won’t be anywhere else other than up front early Steeple. Otherwise he just won’t go anywhere.
Indeed Ginger, what I meant was I don’t think he’ll do a ‘Wishfull Thinking’ – he’ll try and go a sensible pace up front though I don’t think he’d mind too much sitting just behind the likes of Nacarat for a circuit.
I was sold on Golan Way and he made me a quid or two. He looked a class act when he won a Pertempts qualifier beating Bouglar very easily and well hancied by the yard he looked a certainty to be at least placed in the Cleeve Hurdle.
He travelled like a dream in the lead for most of the way until the top of the hill when Time For Rupert range up beside him and headed him.
There was absolutely no fight in him the minute he was headed.
They held him up in his early days and he never raised a gallop until they gave him his head and he won 4 on the trot.
He doesn’t always make all. Sometimes they just let him do his own thing but within a few hurdles/fences he just travels to the front and off he goes.
If they hold him up there’s a good chance he wont raise a gallop and if they don’t he’ll be run off his feet once the race starts in earnest.
You have to admire the Janis Joplin lookalike for having a go but I reckon she’s been in at the candy jar and should straighten herself out and look for a decent prize for Golan Way in his own class. These adventures 99/100 end up a complete waste of time and money when the horse could be picking up 15-30k elsewhere.
Sorry Steeple but I really can’t think of a less suitable race to run him in than the King George
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