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RP tweet: "Sir Des Champs will miss the King George and run in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown on Friday."
Very disappointed. I was on NRNB with Boyles fortunately but I think connections have made the wrong decision here.
With the ground likely to be very testing I think TAPK has found a cracking EW bet in Junior at 40s, front runner in that ground could take some pegging back
Grand Crus will line up by all accounts.
McCoy to ride The Giant Bolster.
Gearing up to be a good race, especially now that Grand Crus will take his chance.
Betvictor offer 33 Cue Card for the Gold Cup, stake refunded as a free bet if he doesn’t run (free bet must be used the same day).
If he wins the King George in the likely conditions, as I believe he will, his GC price will be in single figures. If he wins convincingly on Wednesday he might well be fav for the Gold Cup.
If he loses he’d be a very doubtful runner in the GC and the free bet kicks in.
Incidentally, the same firm offer 6/1 Oscar Whisky for the World Hurdle – NR free bet (singles only). If he goes there he’s highly likely to start fav.
Good luck
JoeThis looks a 2 horse race, Long Run V Grands Crus, Cue Card top class over 2.5 miles wont get home will win Ryanair, the rest just not good enough
That Cuecard offer Steeplechasing refers to sounds like a bet to nothing, so good spot.
As for not so lil’ ol’ me…if you told me a week ago that I was going to back Long Run I would have seriously baulked.
However, lying in bed last night (rather coquettishly I may add), I started to think…"what could beat Long Run?"…and you know what, I could not come up with a half-decent riposte?
Like many on here, I don’t think Cue Card will stay. Giant Bolster wants better ground and Grand Crus is a risk….but the only danger IMHO if back to form.
I’ve never been a big fan of Long Run, but he’s obviously a useful tool, and though his form has plateaued, he really is the most eye-catching option. We know he goes on the ground and track and his last run, though not spectacular, should have him ripe for this. He’s also a safe jumper, if a little scratchy.
There is always the chance something, like Kauto Star last year, takes him off his feet and he cannot cope, but on the forecast heavy going (and there is more rain coming to Kempton), this really should be his 4th big prize. That was in retrospect a tremendous run behind Kauto, no shame in being beaten by the best chaser ever fair and square.
It’s there for the taking.
So I took £60 at 2-1, which is a big bet for Zippy
I reckon the money will come for him on the day and he may end up nearer 5/4.
Zip
This appears to be a very good renewal of the King George, with former winners of the Cheltenham Bumper, Arkle and Gold Cup doing battle. Last seasons Ryanair Chase winner, Gold Cup and Jewson runner-ups, plus an impressive Feltham winner also add interest and intrigue to the field.
What more do you expect for the purist race in the National Hunt calendar?
The best trip for
Captain Chris
is still something of a mystery. His two Grade One victories have come over the minimum distance as a novice, but respective wins in the Pendil Novices’ and, more recently, Amlin Chase are proof that he is just as effective over further. Staying on efforts in the Scilly Isles and last seasons Ryanair Chase over two miles-five have always suggested that three miles could well be within his grasp.
One could argue that last seasons renewal of this contest produced more questions than answers on this topic. He struggled for pace around the sharp configurations that day, yet was staying on well enough to suggest that he could challenge Kauto Star in the straight. That effort petered out and he was eventually a well beaten third.
The ground will hold no fears for this handsome individual, but a combination of the testing conditions and three miles could prove too much. A more galloping track would also appear to be more beneficial and he will do well to improve on his placed effort last term.
The giant
Champion Court
showed plenty of potential as a novice hurdler, but his size always suggested that chasing would be his game. A fine success in the Dipper at the start of the year only furthered that impression, and he would later fill the runner-up spot at both Cheltenham and Aintree to Sir Des Champs and Silviniaco Conti, respectively.
No shame in that and he definitely has a bright future, but has stamina to prove and his best efforts have come on better ground. He would have been of greater interest under less testing conditions and his day in the sun will surely have to wait.
One of three King’s Theatre geldings in the race,
Cue Card
has always shown immense potential and his seasonal debut strongly suggested that he could finally fulfil it over the bigger obstacles. Success in Exeter’s Haldon Gold Cup was the perfect start after a novice campaign that saw him come up short against future Arkle and RSA winners, Sprinter Sacre and Bobs Worth – both of whom are now favourites for the Champion Chase and Cheltenham Gold Cup, respectively. These were highly creditable efforts and victories over For Non Stop and Michael Flips also offered hope for the future.
His jumping – fast and assured on his return – will be a useful attribute around this track, but he is yet another candidate who has stamina to prove. His pedigree certainly gives hope and the ground will hold no fears, but he appeared to be outstayed by Bobs Worth at Newbury last season over two miles-four, and with some proven three milers in the field he will need to stay every yard to achieve victory.
The quality of this contest can not be questioned when a twenty-three length winner of the Old Roan Chase is the outsider of the field.
For Non Stop
showed plenty of ability as a hurdler, but has truly excelled as a chaser. He has competed against some fine opposition during the embryonic stages of his chasing career, and gave Al Ferof an almighty fright at Sandown last year before creditable efforts in defeat against the likes of Cue Card and Sir Des Champs. He returned term with a breathtaking performance at Aintree and, despite a couple of poor jumps, found only Captain Chris too good at Ascot.
He also has stamina to prove in this top class company, but he won over three miles in a heavy ground point-to-point and his relaxed, patient style of running certainly gives hope that this trip could bring out further improvement. A few question marks and he has bit to find, but he will outrun his price.
The enigma of the race is arguably
Grands Crus
.
A top class staying hurdler, he made a very impressive start to this discipline when thumping Champion Court at Cheltenham, but improved on that when, in a time faster than the King George, shrugged off the challenges of none other than Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth in the Feltham over the same course and distance. Both of those opponents went on to land valuable events that season and returned this year to claim the Betfair Chase and Hennessy, respectively.
David Pipe’s grey machine would disappoint at Cheltenham, but valid excuses were found to dismiss that effort and much better was expected upon his return in the Paddy Power. A poor performance led to a minor breathing operation and connections feel that he has recovered to peak fitness for this event.
Most of his victories have come on better ground and conditions are hardly ideal for a horse returning from such an operation, but it’s hard to forget just how impressive he was at this meeting last year and the subsequent form of that contest strongly suggests that he is more than capable of playing a part if back to his best. That has to be taken on trust, though.
His stablemate,
Junior
, has been supplemented for this contest and will have no problem with either the trip or ground, but on all known form he has to find significant improvement to land a blow.
The legendary Kauto Star will be hoping that his half-brother can carry on the fine family tradition in this contest. A Grade One winning chaser in his home country,
Kauto Stone
made an immediate impact on these shores with victory at Down Royal and followed that success with a good second in the Tingle Creek behind the awesome Sizing Europe. Much was expected after those two creditable efforts, but his form tailed off thereafter and he started this campaign with much to prove.
He returned this season to the scene of his last triumph and beat some high class opposition to land the Grade One Champion Chase. He travelled smoothly throughout and dispelled any worries about the trip with a gutsy success in testing conditions from the stamina-laden duo, First Lieutenant and Quito De La Roque.
A combination of the ground and trip should prove ideal and, only a 6YO, he is open to plenty of improvement and can only get better. He looks set to run a big race.
Long Run
is yet to finish outside the first three in a distinguished career that has seen him complete a King George / Cheltenham Gold Cup double. He has failed to build on that sophomore season success, however, and can boast only a scrambling victory in the Denman Chase in five subsequent outings.
Despite that, he has an obvious liking for Kempton Park and the King George has proven to be a specialist race in the past. The Nicky Henderson-trained horse is clearly suited by the demands of this contest and was denied only by a rejuvenated Kauto Star last season.
His seasonal debut – similar to that of last season – told us that he is at least as good as ever, and the testing conditions can only increase his chances of success in a race where few promise to stay and / or appreciate the ground. He is a worthy favourite and the one they all have to beat.
Riverside Theatre
rattled off a hat-trick of top level victories in a thirteen month period, culminating with success in the Ryanair Chase at The Festival last season. Not seen since a lacklustre effort at Aintree, he has proven to be best when fresh and fitness will not be an issue.
He finished second – albeit well beaten – behind Long Run in this race two years ago but has clearly improved since, and it would have been no surprise to see that deficit reduced this time around if not for the testing conditions. They will certainly suit his conqueror that day, but a fairly light-framed individual like him must surely be at a disadvantage on this occasion.
The Giant Bolster
always threatened to be a good horse, but his progress was consistently blighted by poor jumping. With those issues ironed out he ran out an impressive winner at Cheltenham and finished last term with an excellent second in the Gold Cup.
He proved that to be no fluke with a perfectly acceptable third in the Betfair Chase on his seasonal return. If he can build on that effort he has the ability to run a big race, but it’s quite evident that his best efforts have come on better ground and that could very well prove his downfall on this occasion.
—————————————————————-
It goes without saying that Long Run is a worthy favourite after his two previous efforts in this contest. The testing ground will increase his chances at the expense of others, making his stamina an even greater weapon against a group of horses where few can claim to both appreciate and excel in it.
Kauto Stone could prove his biggest danger. He travelled well and jumped fluently around Sandown in the Tingle Creek over two miles last year, and transferred those attributes over the testing three miles at Down Royal this season. Those two efforts certainly suggest that the conditions of this race will suit and he is open to plenty of improvement.
The form of his Feltham success is exceptional, so Grands Crus will give them both something to think about if back to his best, but that has to be taken on trust.
1 LONG RUN
2 KAUTO STONE
3 GRANDS CRUSThat Cuecard offer Steeplechasing refers to sounds like a bet to nothing, so good spot.
As for not so lil’ ol’ me…if you told me a week ago that I was going to back Long Run I would have seriously baulked.
However, lying in bed last night (rather coquettishly I may add), I started to think…"what could beat Long Run?"…and you know what, I could not come up with a half-decent riposte?
Like many on here, I don’t think Cue Card will stay. Giant Bolster wants better ground and Grand Crus is a risk….but the only danger IMHO if back to form.
I’ve never been a big fan of Long Run, but he’s obviously a useful tool, and though his form has plateaued, he really is the most eye-catching option. We know he goes on the ground and track and his last run, though not spectacular, should have him ripe for this. He’s also a safe jumper, if a little scratchy.
There is always the chance something, like Kauto Star last year, takes him off his feet and he cannot cope, but on the forecast heavy going (and there is more rain coming to Kempton), this really should be his 4th big prize. That was in retrospect a tremendous run behind Kauto, no shame in being beaten by the best chaser ever fair and square.
It’s there for the taking.
So I took £60 at 2-1, which is a big bet for Zippy
I reckon the money will come for him on the day and he may end up nearer 5/4.
Zip
Agree with much of the analysis but i think Riverside Theatre is the each way bet. A slicker jumper than Long Run, with a better jockey, and is often overlooked in these races yet is a consistent top class performer. Beaten by Long Run in January 2011 but that horse hasn’t shown the same form in the last year, whereas RT has improved a touch.
There’s a chance Junior and The Giant Bolster will take each other on and make it a test, in which case i think the best stamina horse in the race is Long Run
With the ground seemingly deteriorating by the minute at Kempton, this e/w plunge on Junior put forward by TAPK, VTC and GDC may not seem like the worst idea in the world…….
C’mon Boz
Get of that fence, lets pretend you have a free bet of £10,000 to bet on King George Chase (win only), who are you putting it on? Anyone else please tell us who you’d put it on?
Nice analysis Bos. It’s strange how experienced punters see things so differently.
Long Run is and always has been seriously over-rated imo, due to winning a KG where there were valid excuses for a number of his rivals, and a Gold Cup against the burnt-out Denman and KS who his trainer claims was never right that season (both 11 at the time). The 2nd fav Imp Commander was pulled up lame/bled.
Since his Gold Cup he’s lost all four Grade Ones he’s contested. He also, imo, has a problem which causes him to drag his hind legs through fences at times, most noticeable under pressure.
I think Cue Card is head and shoulders above this field. He skated up on his chase debut beating Silv Conti, would, I believe have beaten Grands Crus had he not unseated at Cheltenham, should most definitely have beaten Bobs Worth when conceding half a stone at Newbury (jockey steadied him going to the last losing vital momentum then unbalanced him when looking round on landing).
His sole run at the minimum trip was against Sprinter Sacre (he beat the remainder 22L +.
The farther he went at Exeter the more he pulled clear and I think this three mile trip could suit him very well. He always tries to put a race to bed some way from home (he had very decent horses being vigorously ridden 4 out last time) and Kempton’s the perfect place to do that. His high cruising speed is not matched by a turn of foot at the business end, but if JT lets him stride out and doesn’t try to ride him to get the trip (he resents restraint) he could have this won two out.
He’s not a natural jumper but (touch wood) is safe when allowed to get on with it, and can be very good when asked up. He fiddles very well, though I’d always rather see JT take a cut at the fences.
I’d much prefer to have seen this run on good ground and doubtless he will drift because of stamina concerns, but I have no doubt whatever he is the best horse in this race by some considerable distance.
Roll on tomorrow!
Joe
C’mon Boz
Get of that fence, lets pretend you have a free bet of £10,000 to bet on King George Chase (win only), who are you putting it on? Anyone else please tell us who you’d put it on?
Well my cash(albeit not £10,000
) is already down. Grands Crus for me, although the extremities of the conditions underfoot will certainly be a test of his stamina so I’m just praying that the breathing op has really done the business for him.Many thanks for the kind words, Joe. Nothing more enjoyable on these pages then writing / reading a big race review and I’m glad you enjoyed it.
Cue Card is quite possibly the most talented horse in the field, but I have three concerns regarding his chances tomorrow:
1) Stamina – his ability to stay is further compromised by the testing conditions.
2) Course Configuration – I know he won well in good company at Exeter on a right-handed track, but that was his first attempt going clockwise and the chase course is situated on the outer at that venue. How will he cope with a sharp, right-handed track?
3) Riding Preference – All his best efforts over obstacles have come when able to dictate small fields and his desire for a battle has often come under scrutiny. He will face stern competition for the lead in this top class field.
I have seen some good two milers / two mile-five horses compete in the King George during recent years – Voy Por Ustedes, Somersby, Captain Chris – and all have been in with a chance turning for home, only to find those last couple of furlongs beyond them.
The King George is the most demanding park race in the calendar. You must be able to travel, jump fluently, possess plenty of speed and stay every yard. It’s not an easy three miles despite what many think because you are going that yard faster the whole way and there is nowhere to hide – one serious mistake and you need to be a very good horse to recover.
Cue Card will be taken on by Junior, The Giant Bolster and possibly Champion Court, and I’m not yet convinced he’ll enjoy that and his jumping could suffer as a result. Long Run won’t be far away, either, given that his stamina is assured.
Long Run is a dual course winner and has shown a liking for this ‘specialist’ event. He is arguably better than his fellow stamina-laden rivals and you need only look what he did to the doubtful stayers last year in the shape of Captain Chris and Somersby.
Overrated? I’m almost certain, but Long Run doesn’t need to be a 180-horse to win this under the current conditions.
Only three horses have proven themselves (under rules) in heavy ground: Captain Chris, Junior, Kauto Stone and Long Run. With the exception of Captain Chris the other three have proven stamina. Junior is punching slightly above his weight, whereas Kauto Stone and Long Run have Grade One form over three miles on testing ground.
Kauto Stone is so interesting. Travelled well and jumped soundly in a Tingle Creek over two miles to finish second, yet defeated a pair of dour stayers over the gruelling three miles of Down Royal in testing ground. Only a 6YO and open to plenty of improvement, although he would perhaps prefer a more galloping track, which is why I favour Long Run.
And I agree – Roll on tomorrow! Many questions will be answered…
King George VI
I backed
Captain Chris
last time out in the Amlin on heavy ground. Won well by 3 ¾ lengths but getting 6lbs from the second For Non Stop. That being 2m3f, Captain Chris is an Arkle winner at 2m; third in this race last season on good. Isn’t absolutely certain to stay on the ground, but does look likely. Right handed courses suits best; no doubt Johnson will want to go around the inner to stop his mount jumping on an angle. With 17 lengths to make up on Long Run from 2011, Captain Chris needs to improve again. After a short poor spell Philip Hobbs is back in really good form.
Champion Court
looks outclassed, come up short each time taking on top class opposition. Races as if this will be too much of a stamina test anyway. Beaten 6 lengths off a mark of 155 in a 2m1f heavy ground handicap on reappearance.
I’d have fancied
Cue Card
quite strongly on good ground. Races prominently at shorter distances. Unless they all let the strong staying front-runner Junior go off on his own – Cue Card may not be able to go as slow as Tizzard would like. Undeniably impressive on reappearance (stable in cracking nick at time) but rivals Edgardo Sol and Menorah jumped poorly. Form looks suspect but did it so easily and has obvious potential. Nothing wrong with 7 length Second in Champion Chase (2m Good), giving the outstanding Sprinter Sacre his hardest race so far over fences. If Cue Card stays (big if for me on this going) has a chance.
As already said,
For Non Stop
was giving 6 lbs to Captain Chris when 3 ¾ length second in the Amlin on heavy. Not at all a bad run. However, if memory serves Nick Williams wasn’t in such good form there as when scooting home by 23 lengths on reappearance. Stable now once again in good form. For Non Stop looked an improved performer at Aintree and wasn’t stopping. Well below form only start at 3 miles, but that may be misleading. At 40something/1 looks worth taking a chance on.
Am already on
Grands Crus
@ 8/1 from some time ago. Ran disappointingly in RSA and similar on reappearance in Paddy Power. Travelling well for a long way before finding nothing under pressure. Looked a top class chaser in the making early in novice chase career and we know he stays 3 miles. Impressive Feltham victory at this meeting last term, form that’s been franked several times by those finishing in behind including second Silviniaco Conti. Grands Crus has had a breathing op since Cheltenham and this ground may not be ideal. However, is once again apparently pleasing connections at home. Stable in good form. Right back down around 8/1 again.
Junior
is one of only a few certain to both stay and act on the ground. However, doesn’t have much in the way of speed. Will need it bottomless to stop others from giving their best. Made all to win on reappearance, but Rehearsal Chase is not what it was. Three of just five runners “out of the handicap”, practically with only one to beat. Leading all the way may be important to him these days, seemed to enjoy himself more than normal. May well get his own way again here, there’s even a chance of being allowed a long lead. But unless that is the case all we know about him suggests won’t be good enough.
Kauto Stone
is no Star, but improved to win the JNWine on reappearance by a length from First Lieutenant. If progression continues could well emulate his half brother. However, there are some negatives. No doubt trainer had him spot on, so how much further up the tree he’ll go remains to be seen. Failed to go on after an impressive first start at the same Down Royal meeting last season. Often free and will need to settle equally as well, truly run race on heavy may be more of a stamina test than faced so far. Had Nicholls been able to run either Al Ferof or Silviniaco Conti then this Kauto would be third string.
We know how good
Long Run
was, but how good is he now? Won “2010” King George and 2011 Gold Cup while wearing ear plugs; but hasn’t had them in on recent starts. Why change such a winning formula? He’s surely not showing the same speed at home. Connections trying to rekindle enthusiasm by doing something different. Not until ear plugs are reintroduced for the race itself (has worn them in preliminaries since but not in race) can I believe Long Run will be back to his best. Not that he’d probably need to be to win this. Sam Waley-Cohen doesn’t seem as good a jockey these days either, confidence seems to have gone. Long Run is not the easiest ride, doesn’t leave much air at his fences though never fallen. Bit free early on but settles ok once getting in to the race. However, Long Run is proven on course, distance, going and has the best form in the race. Needed reappearance last two seasons so this year’s second in the Betfair may not be so disappointing as it looked at first.
Henderson’s second string
Riverside Theatre
has an exceptional record fresh, travels much better early on in his season. Pushed along from the start when winning Ryanair and no sort of race at Aintree afterwards. Won last two runnings of Ascot Chase on last two reappearance runs. Successful four from five at Kempton. Only defeat splitting Long Run and Kauto Star in the “2010” renewal. Suppose there’s a slight doubt about whether he’ll stay in these conditions, but I think a test of stamina may suit him well if acting on the surface (goes well on soft but still unraced on heavy). Might take advantage if stable companion isn’t at his best.
The Giant Bolster
was second in a sub-standard Gold Cup, 2 ¼ lengths behind Synchronised. Had a below form Long Run ¾ length behind there. 4 ½ behind that rival on similar ground to this at Haydock on reappearance. May come on for the run, but so should Long Run and nowhere near sure to be suited by Kempton. Not raced right-handed for 19 starts since November 2009. Tom Scudamore is on Grands Crus so AP takes the ride.
My 100% book
Long Run
15/8,
Riverside Theatre
9/2, Cue Card 17/2, Grands Crus 17/2, Kauto Stone 10/1, Captain Chris 18/1, The Giant Bolster 20/1,
For Non Stop
20/1, Junior 66/1, Champion Court 200/1
Verdict
Unfortunately for my ante-post bet I no longer believe Grands Crus is value in that ground; hope I am wrong. Might pay to take a chance on
Riverside Theatre
acting on it. Course and first time out form make him hard to dismiss.
For Non Stop
ran well enough against Captain Chris to suggest the ground won’t be too much of a worry for him and with stable in fine form again may surprise a few. Worth a speculative wager at massive odds. Long Run has the best form and worth a saver.
Advice
Back
Riverside Theatre
as the main bet @ around 11/2 with a smaller main bet on
For Non Stop
@ around 50/1 on the machine; with a saver on
Long Run
@ 2/1.
Value Is EverythingBos, well done again, fine call and your summary of CC’s weaknesses look spot on. I hope you made a few quid.
Long Run a very talented out and out grinding stayer. If he could jump he’d be a fine National prospect.
Congrats to all who bet the winner.
Gold Cup and Champ Hurdle markets now look more open than I can ever recall at this stage of season.
Joe
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