- This topic has 386 replies, 69 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
Ahh, but Boz, do YOU think Long Run was beaten because of his jumping or because he was too slow? Maybe the horse just wasnt good enough?
Zip
Reet, I appreciate you taking the time to write the data to your hypothesis. Not my cup of tea, but then who am I to argue against such a venerable guru as yourself?
Zip
That’s not how you spell vulnerable
- Total Posts 17716
It’s absolutely ridiculous that anyone’s still commenting on this. It’s over now gents, time to get on the Gold Cup forum……..
It matters a great deal to those who might be backing Long Run in the Gold Cup on the premise that it’s further, therefore the horse will perform better.
He’s reported to have grown and strengthened since last season, but that improvement didn’t manifest in his respective KG performances – for reasons I’ll leave others to ponder.More likely he has grown, but not quite filled out his frame as he did last year. If one is prepared to accept that Kauto Star was not at his best last year, even allowing for a natural decline due to age, then Long Run could equally not be at his best this season. It is not horses that make fools out of punters but their own flawed logic.
Reet,
Take a look at last year’s Gold Cup if you think Long Run has as much pace as Kauto Star. Coming down the hill both Kauto Star and Denman were going better than Long Run. It wasn’t until the straight that Long Run came in to his own, as superior stamina took over.Value Is EverythingWe could argue this till the cows come home……..moooooooooo!!……..sh*t…..too late.
(case closed methinks)
More likely he has grown, but not quite filled out his frame as he did last year. If one is prepared to accept that Kauto Star was not at his best last year, even allowing for a natural decline due to age, then Long Run could equally not be at his best this season. It is not horses that make fools out of punters but their own flawed logic.
That’s a fair point, Eclipse. Do you think Long Run is not at his best this season? I don’t!
Zip
More likely he has grown, but not quite filled out his frame as he did last year. If one is prepared to accept that Kauto Star was not at his best last year, even allowing for a natural decline due to age, then Long Run could equally not be at his best this season. It is not horses that make fools out of punters but their own flawed logic.
That’s a fair point, Eclipse. Do you think Long Run is not at his best this season? I don’t!
Zip
I think he is at least 7lbs below his efforts last season, what people seem to forget that if Kauto Star from the December King George had met the Long Run from the January renewal, the younger horse would have won. Kauto Star did not improve for his first run of the season and he looked to be all out at the end of the King George, hence my reasoning that the Ryanair should be the race for him at Cheltenham, if they think he has retained his enthusiasm. Heaven forbid that greed should see some mishap befall him at the festival.
Everyone’s entiteld to there opinion: NH said "I’d be shocked if we haven’t actually improved" we just came up against Kauto at his best.
I think he’s half right. I think Long Run has improved quite a bit and proved he can run well against something rather than the bunch of invalids he beat last year.
Where I don’t agree is on Kauto Star being at his best. I think he’s trying to boost his own horses rep there as Kauto’s nothing like as good as he once was, due to the fact he has lost his ability to quicken on a sixpence.
He increased the pace in the King George ok but 3 years ago he’d have quickened up and left Long Run looking like a tree and put 10 lengths between him and the rest before you could blink an eye.
I really liked the way Long Run fought back in that race and at Haydock till he weakend. He’s more of a man now and I wasn’t his biggest fan by any stretch of the imagination.
I don’t think Kauto has a cat in hells chance of beating him at Cheltenham his armoury is half empty and you cant go there without all guns blazing.
- Total Posts 17716
I think it’s beyond question that Long Run has improved since last term, it’s just that his jumping has probably got worse.
RPR have his seasonal debut 6lb better than last year, and his KG run equal to last season’s, even though he didn’t jump nearly as well.
As I’ve said all along, he must have a massive engine – to keep coming back at Kauto the way he did, after making a horlicks of 5 of the last 6 fences. Sadly that improvement isn’t likely to be reflected in results, until something is done about his technique. Whether a change of jockey would help, I don’t pretend to know, just can’t see it as a disadvantage to try BG, and find out.Reet,
Take a look at last year’s Gold Cup if you think Long Run has as much pace as Kauto Star. Coming down the hill both Kauto Star and Denman were going better than Long Run. It wasn’t until the straight that Long Run came in to his own, as superior stamina took over.That’s a good point Ginger and much as I would choose Long Run if forced to have a bet on the race right now, one thing bothers me greatly.
He was outpaced coming down the hill last year and it was his stamina which won him the race but that stamina was able to come into play as he gathered momentum, forging away up the hill.
That momentum is a huge factor at Cheltenham – with the unforgiving run in – but just as importantly how many times do you see a horse hit a hurdle or fence up the hill, lose their momentum and subsequently the race ?.
To the people who think he can hit a fence or two and still win due to his engine (and I’m one of them) you have to ask yourself, what if one of those fences happen to be any of the last three ?
It takes a special ability to quicken again at that point, one I don’t think Long Run has and IMO that would quite simply cost him the race.
Lee
I find it strange that, until Best Mate won three Gold Cups it was [almost] unheard of for horses to win the Gold Cup twice, let alone three times, and yet now we expect all horses to come back and win the following year. What has changed all this? Is it the ‘cotton wool’ approach used by Miss knight, which was ridiculed at the time, improved training techniques, or the fact that we seem to be in a golden age of steeplechasers?
- Total Posts 17716
Long Run may have received a couple of liveners in the Gold Cup, but nowhere in the final mile was ever more than a couple of lengths off Kauto Star.
You guys are confusing speed with instant acceleration, and while he may not have much of the latter, there’s any amount of evidence, in any amount of races, that he is not short of the former.Eclipse said: "I think he is at least 7lbs below his efforts last season, what people seem to forget that if Kauto Star from the December King George had met the Long Run from the January renewal, the younger horse would have won. Kauto Star did not improve for his first run of the season and he looked to be all out at the end of the King George, hence my reasoning that the Ryanair should be the race for him at Cheltenham, if they think he has retained his enthusiasm. Heaven forbid that greed should see some mishap befall him at the festival."
I wholeheartedly disagree that any version of Long Run would beat a 100% Kauto in the King George. Kauto is the only one to have been below form (when beaten by the Henderson beast), not Long Run. As HurdyGurdyBurdy stated, the Trainer of LR thinks his horse has improved. Whilst that is debatable I don’t think he has underperformed at all.
The Kauto team are fully entitled to run their champ in the Blue Riband of jump racing. I understand he probably will not enjoy the hill as much as before but can anyone honestly say he definitely won’t win? On CURRENT form he is the best horse in the race.
Reet – most of us agree that LR is not slow, just slower than KS and surely the difference in their ages emphasises that.
Zip
I always look for obvious bookmaker errors immediately after Cheltenham and I am convinced that Grands Crus @ 8/1 with William Hill is too big. The other bookies are offering between 7/2 and 5/1
Looking at the best odds available for the opposition:
Long Run 3/1 In view of his performances this season he seems short of pace
Synchronised 5/1 Don’t even think he will run in KG but would not give much chance as it’s not his track
Bobs Worth 6/1 I fancy him to run a big race in next years Gold Cup, he is better going left handed
Kauto Star 7/1 If he hasn’t retired and wins this rising 13 I will be amazed.
Riverside Theatre 8/1 Don’t think he truly stays 3 miles
Sprinter Sacre 8/1 Unlikely to run
The Giant Bolster 10/1 Cannot fancy this one at all
Sizing Europe 14/1 Does not stay 3 miles
Al Ferof 16/1 Don’t think he has the turn of speed needed to win a KG
Captain Chris 16/1 Not Good Enough
Sir Des Champs 16/1 A massive price if he were to runAnybody agree with me that Grands Crus is fantastic value @ 8/1
That’s one of those ‘gotta have some of that!’ prices.
A bad race doesn’t make a bad horse, and you’d have to say he’d end up going off at least half that price, so, yeah, it’s well worth it.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.