- This topic has 386 replies, 69 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
"Thisthatandother, I have repeated myself because that is what I believe, and I have not kept repeating it except when it has been in the context of replying to someone who has further commented. You have equally repeated yourself many times making your point clear, albeit you take a different view from me….I don’t have any problem with that.
You say to me that you don’t want to fall out with anyone either. Then can I suggest that you don’t make comments like "BigG, you’re full of it".
It’s not like I have taken that comment out of context, that was the only thing you wrote.
Some people have agreed with my views on Long Run, and some have not. I have not tried to persuade anyone. As I have said, this is my viewpoint, and as I have stated in my posts more than once, my viewpoint is no better or worse than someone else’s. I thought that was what a forum was for."
I repeat that I’m sorry you are offended, but from where I am you sound a bit pompous
Thisthatandother, you wrote…
"I repeat that I’m sorry you are offended, but from where I am you sound a bit pompous"
and previously "BigG, you’re full of it."
Those were the sum total of those two posts, nothing is missing.I simply don’t understand people like you. Not once have I said anything personal or offensive to you. I have merely given my opinion about a horse and yet, you have to make personal demeaning comments.
Why would you go to the effort, in your latter post, of taking the time to say Sorry if you are offended……and then follow it with "you sound a bit pompous?" These are comments which have no other intention but to rile and irritate.
I have had 30 years in the police force, so having sh*t thrown is nothing new to me, I just didn’t expect to find it in a racing forum with like minded people….ie people interested in horse racing.
On horse racing I will be happy to converse and swap opinions with you, but further personal comments I will not respond to.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing and we are all guilty of using the old if only… etc.
I fancied Long Run to win the KG, even with SWC aboard. Beforehand I wasn’t so much concerned about Long Run’s jumping as I was about young Waley-Cohen’s ability to out manoeuvre, out think, and out ride the more capable and more tactically aware Ruby Walsh.
Truth is, Kauto Star’s superior jumping aside, it was the wily professionalism, tactical nous and calmness under pressure of Ruby Walsh that won the day.
Had SWC the sense to repeat the tactics he employed in 2010 – that is, applying the pressure to Kauto Star and his jockey much further from home, the race would have become much more of a stamina test. Had he done so, I am almost certain that the race would have swung considerably in Long Run’s favour.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Accepted thisthatandother. I am happy to put this behind us.
I am off for the weekend now, I hope my small wager on Tanks For That, at Sandown tomorrow, pays for it.
Good luck
GHindsight is a wonderful thing and we are all guilty of using the old if only… etc.
I fancied Long Run to win the KG, even with SWC aboard. Beforehand I wasn’t so much concerned about Long Run’s jumping as I was about young Waley-Cohen’s ability to out manoeuvre, out think, and out ride the more capable and more tactically aware Ruby Walsh.
Truth is, Kauto Star’s superior jumping aside, it was the wily professionalism, tactical nous and calmness under pressure of Ruby Walsh that won the day.
Had SWC the sense to repeat the tactics he employed in 2010 – that is, applying the pressure to Kauto Star and his jockey much further from home, the race would have become much more of a stamina test. Had he done so, I am almost certain that the race would have swung considerably in Long Run’s favour.
How much further out "H"? Xmas Day? he was under pressure to do so from the 7th last fence and couldn’t get Kauto out of cruise control until after the last.
- Total Posts 17716
He also tried that tactic at Haydock, only to be given a jumping lesson by Kauto.
I will repeat – no matter how you dress it up, Long Run’s problem isn’t lack of speed.How much further out "H"? Xmas Day? he was under pressure to do so from the 7th last fence and couldn’t get Kauto out of cruise control until after the last.
I have to disagree with you, Hurdy. I think you’re getting your 2011 KG’s mixed up. In the delayed 2010 running, Long Run most certainly applied pressure to Kauto Star and Nacarat 7 fences ( or if you like, over 1 mile ) from home – and it paid dividends.
However, in this year’s running, Sam Waley Cohen delays his move on Kauto Star and only starts getting serious around about 5 fences from home. Caught napping and out manouevered is my verdict.
Long Run then clouts and brushes through 2 fences, which, of course, didn’t help his momentum one little bit. He was, from then on – if you’ll pardon the expression – making up ground… hand over fist.
So, to answer your question – two fences earlier !
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
He also tried that tactic at Haydock, only to be given a jumping lesson by Kauto.
I will repeat – no matter how you dress it up, Long Run’s problem isn’t lack of speed.For goodness sake – it is EXACTLY his lack of speed as to why he has got beaten twice by KS. Are you seriously going to tell us Kauto is a slower horse than Long Run? When all previous form says otherwise.
Perhaps you need far more esteemed and knowledgeable sages to explain this to you?
Can we put this to a poll on the forum and see how many people think it was speed or jumping that lost LR the Betfair and King George? I’m not sure how to create one but I’ll try now.
Long Run did not jump that badly in his last two runs he was just outpaced and could not keep up!!! Maybe you think LR could reverse from with Kauto at Chelters as Long Run will be the quicker horse there?
Zip
How much further out "H"? Xmas Day? he was under pressure to do so from the 7th last fence and couldn’t get Kauto out of cruise control until after the last.
I have to disagree with you, Hurdy. I think you’re getting your 2011 KG’s mixed up. In the delayed 2010 running, Long Run most certainly applied pressure to Kauto Star and Nacarat 7 fences ( or if you like, over 1 mile ) from home – and it paid dividends.
However, in this year’s running, Sam Waley Cohen delays his move on Kauto Star and only starts getting serious around about 5 fences from home. Caught napping and out manouevered is my verdict.
Long Run then clouts and brushes through 2 fences, which, of course, didn’t help his momentum one little bit. He was, from then on – if you’ll pardon the expression – making up ground… hand over fist.
So, to answer your question – two fences earlier !
Surely you can see there is a sound argument for saying Kauto was not 100% last season as he has now beaten LR twice fair and square? Nicky Henderson seems to think so, but then what does he know?
Zip
Long Run lost more ground round the home turn when Kauto kicked for home than at any other point in the race. He was outpaced at that point and that’s that.
In his youth and prime, Kauto had Grade 1 2-mile pace and he was able to inject at least some of that in longer races to put daylight between him and the rest of the field He hasn’t lost all of that and it’s something that Long Run hasn’t got – he is a staying chaser through and through. He’ll most likely beat Kauto in the Gold Cup but it won’t be because he’s the quicker horse, or even as quick. It’ll be the stamina that does it.
Very trenchant, Tete Rouge. This is exactly how I, and other august forumites, feel.
Reet, you talk a lot of sense a lot of the time, but on this matter, sir, you talk tosh!
Zip
- Total Posts 17716
Zip
Sometimes, I wonder why I bother you ‘august forumites’ with my blether.
Here’s a pleb’s view of what actually happened during the last 6 jumps of the race.
A/ being the estimated distance between Kauto and Long Run at the fence.
B/ the distance 10 strides later, and
C/ the distance on take-off at the next fence.……A….B…C
13/…1 – 3 – 1.5
14/…2 – 3 – 2
15/…2 – 4 – 2
16/…3 – 3 – 3
17/…3 – 5 – 2
18/…2 – 3 – 1.25 (WP)At all, bar the 16th fence (Where Long Run fell behind on the bend, as he had at Haydock) LR lost ground at, or soon after, jumping the obstacle, and at all, he had made up that ground before jumping the next.
Long Run also made jumping errors, again, at all 6 bar the 16th, which cost him momentum – either in the air or coming away from the fence – yet still had the speed to make up the deficit.
I can see why people would think he was outpaced, but there’s evidence enough (for me, anyway) that his problems weren’t caused by speed, but entirely due to sloppy technique.
The rest of you ‘sages’ can continue to argue amongst your august selves, I know where stupid’s money will be – sharp 3m or not – should the Henderson horse ever learn to jump.I’d say Long Run doesn’t need to jump any better than he did to beat Kauto Star at Cheltenham.
His jumping was ok considering the immense pressure he came under.
Remember the errors as minor as they were, were forced errors caused by Ruby suddenly increasing the pace. Watch Ruby change hands in the replay and it’s then that Long Run’s jumping becomes immediately questionableHe’s never whacked any the fences he’s just been a bit akward at a few but no dust clouds that you see when a horse drags his hind legs through one. Play it back in slow motion and watch his jumps rthen watch Somersby and you’ll see what I mean.
Also play back the run to the last and see how much Kauto slows and actually markedly side steps that allowed Long Run to close right up.
Long Run wasn’t so much finishing as Kauto was slowing down IMO.
That of course is the norm’ Horses don’t quicken off that sort of pace the leaders slow down which is a known fact.
It’s also proof to my mind that 3 miles is as far as Kauto wants to go these days if he is to keep winning.
The only way Kauto will win the Gold Cup is if they go at a crawl. If they go that sort of pace or he tries those tactics at Cheltenham he simply will not get home.
Long Run can afford a blunder or to at Cheltenham and he’ll still outstay the Kauto of today. So I wouldn’t be too concerned about his jumping which is perfectly adequate with the engine and staying power he has.
Being a Realist,it has to be said that in a match at Cheltenham
Long Run
would be 4/7 and
Kauto Star
5/4 but those of us who have no loyalties to either would cheer home the old boy everytime.If everything turns up and Kauto somehow gets his old head in front again it will go down as the greatest feat since Arkle humping tons around.It cant happen….Can it?
Reet, I appreciate you taking the time to write the data to your hypothesis. Not my cup of tea, but then who am I to argue against such a venerable guru as yourself?
Zip
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.