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One of my favourite races of the week, and certainly one of the best betting races of the week.
I hope that this isn’t the last renewal, but I fear that this will make way for The Mares Novice Chase.
Hopefully I’m wrong, but I can see it happening.
Pressure on then, as if it is to be the last renewal, then I’d love to dig out the winner, and Hills have it priced up……
https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/kim-muir-handicap-chase/winner
I’ve only had one horse on my mind for this all season, and though I’ll spend the next three months adding to it, way at the top of the list is the JP owned No Comment.
He really caught the eye at Hereford, before a really strong finish over an inadequate trip at Newbury.
I’d love to see Derek O’Connor get the call, but he’ll obviously not be shy of offers.
No Comment has made the last three Festivals, so no reason why he won’t go again, and with him lurking on a very nice looking mark, this looks the right race for him again, having finished fifth in it last time.
Definitely a race where I’ll add to the shortlist, but of those quoted, Impulsive Star at 50’s, looks far too big. He can call on Sam Waley-Cohen, he has Festival Form, and was a nice winner of The Classic Chase.
For now though, all about No Comment for me, and though I’ve cut way back on Cheltenham Antepost Bets, I might consider him soon.
No Comment 25’s
Big decision for me today.
I’m certain No Comment is a big race winner waiting to happen, but I really didn’t want him to make the trip. But he did. 8’s could be a gift, but ideally I’d like him to be third or fourth.
Posted this on TFJ last week
Kim Muir – Fitzhenry @ 36/1 EW (Boosted with Hills)
Trainer: Paul Nolan
Owner: JP McManusGlenloe has opened at 12/1 for this and is already being tipped up for the Kim Muir by Gavin Lynch. Glenloe will no doubt continue to shorten as the murmurings of an infamous ‘JP Plot’ grow. Favourites have a terrible record in this race and I have no interest of taking 12/1 now, so I’ll be looking elsewhere.
I am drawn to one of JP’s other horses in Fitzhenry at a big price. Fitzhenry is a mark of consistency over fences with form figures of 532112334523 over the last 3 seasons. He seems to save his best for big field handicaps and came 3rd to beat subsequent Kim Muir winner in Any Second Now at the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown last year. He goes for the same race this year as a stepping-stone to the Kim Muir (hopefully). His 2nd in the Troytown to a very good Chris’s Dream was more than just eye-catching, and he jumped, travelled and cruised into the race before making a mistake at the last that took the wind out his sails.
Pre-Troytown Nolan (James) comments – ‘last year he was 3rd in the Paddy Power and the season before he won that big novice handicap at Naas, and he was 2nd in the novice final in Navan, so he’s already won some nice pots, hopefully along the way he can be very competitive in those handicaps, like again Paddypowers and the Troytown on Sunday’.
The handicapper raised him to 137 from 134, so providing he doesn’t piss up over Xmas then I’d say he’d be nailed on to be given a rating < 145 and be aimed here. I am sure whoever is riding him in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown will know the plan .
Post-Troytown (26th) Nolan (Paul) comments – “I’ll have a chat to Frank Berry and see what he wants to do, but I’d imagine he’ll be entered in all those staying handicap chases and we’ll see where we go. Ground doesn’t seem to make a lot of difference to him. He was third in the Paddy Power Chase in Leopardstown last year on good ground and ran well on soft ground the other day – and I’d say he wouldn’t mind it even softer.”
I think connections know they’ve got an improving chaser on their hands here. He was well supported before the Troytown which I like for any JP ‘outsider’ and connections were rewarded with a good 2nd, and his form figures when favourite read 12112 . It was only last year the Irish Field were suggesting a Grade 1 success could be well deserved and whilst I there’s no chance that happens, I wouldn’t put the Kim Muir beyond the reach of this very well-bred and improving 7-year-old. The stats folk will like him for the Kim Muir too:
10/12 achieve their best RPR in their two runs before Cheltenham. (He seems on an upward curve 134,137…..)
17 from last 20 ran over at least 3 miles last time. (He is entered over 3m at Xmas & done well over 3m4f).
Other than a beginners or an ordinary novice, 9 of the last 10 hadn’t won a chase that season. (2nd so far and I don’t think he’ll be in it to win it over Xmas).
10 from the last 13 no more than 11 runs over fences. (Fitzhenry has run more, so did Cause of Causes for JP)
8 of the last 19 had never raced at Cheltenham before. (Neither has Fitzhenry).I can only see the price of Fitzhenry for this going one way, with or without Glenloe heading the market. He’s a JP horse that’s shown loads of stamina, has excellent breeding, jumps well, not ground dependent, steadily improving, consistent over fences, loves big field handicaps and is part of a Nolan team that will no doubt secure the services of a top amateur, and he’s nearly 40/1. Even at this relatively early stage I think that’s a terrific each way bet, and I hope all roads lead to the Kim Muir in March.
Can’t argue with any of that Charlie, he’s a smashing horse, and deserves a big prize.
I’m adding What A Moment from the Pipe yard to the shortlist.
Loves it round here, but after a long layoff, he looked “gone”.
Not so, and last run was very encouraging. I’d be amazed if this isn’t the plan, and no surprise to see Unibet adding him to the market. I’d expect him to be ridden by Richard Harding, who’s won on him round here.
What A Moment 33’s
Against all my best intentions I have just backed glenloe for this at 7/1 NRNB
He will surely go off half that and that will at worst put me in a good position to back one or two at bigger prices on the day
I’d been hovering over him for a while at slightly bigger prices but with him 7/1 nrnb and best priced 8/1 without that offer it seemed a good time to have a small go
Still can’t see past No Comment, ticks loads of boxes, and he’s easily one of my biggest fancies of the week, along with Champagne Classic.
I’ve got a few quid at the 25’s, just for the sake of getting 25’s, but as this is likely to be one of my biggest bets, NRNB is vital, and I’ve had a fair swing at the 16’s.
No Comment 16’s NRNB
No Comment 25’sPleased to see that No Comment gets an entry, but he also holds an entry for The Ultima.
Early Doors at 25’s had to be taken as well. I can’t have a massive go at that price without NRNB, and I have to stick to my guns with No Comment, but a few quid at 25’s won’t hurt.
I’m still interested in What A Moment, and others on the radar include…..
Go Another One
Dallas Des Pictons
Forza MilanHad a bet on Ravenhill for this. Neighbours own the horse, i was told the main plan is here and they hoped Codd would ride. Nothing certain but NRNB 25/1 was attractive.
I see he’s shortened now, so a bit of price after-timing here
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!If Early Doors gets into this off 145 I can’t see him being any bigger than 4/1. Albeit I highly doubt the handicapper will let him into the race.
Hoping they consider the Irish National for Early Doors, been a weird campaign thus far
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!110% Jack, If (which is likely) he doesn’t get into this then it’s all systems go for the Irish National.
Ravenhill 142, and Codd confirmed….now all he needs to do is jump and win…….the hard part
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I think LE BREUIL and BOB MAHLER are two strong contenders for this race.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.RR, i wonder whether LB will even run here if Codd isn’t to ride? Given they were in partnership last year!?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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