The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Kerry National 2020

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Kerry National 2020

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 43 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1501565
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17559

    No market yet……

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/190/listowel/2020-09-23/766926

    No absolute standout at this stage, but a few jumping out.

    The Storyteller – I still think he has another big one in him. Another crack here at a Handicap, after his early finish in The Galway Plate, and though his mark is bordering on prohibitive here, I just can’t put a line through him.

    Ben Dundee – Has made the switch from Elliott to Mullins, and last seen when running a big race in The Plate at Cheltenham. He cruised through that race until slightly hampered two out, and I like the way he ran on, suggesting the extra trip here don’t be an issue. I reckon he’s ahead of his mark too.

    Spyglass Hill – Massive flop in The Galway Plate, after making a serious error, though I thought he was getting niggled before that. He looks one to forgive though, and he was going the right way last year. Worth another chance.

    Plan of Attack – Ultra consistent last year, running many a big race, and definitely a horse to keep on side this season. Looks fairly treated.

    Forza Milan – He would have to be considered a disappointment in The National Hunt Chase last year, never really getting into it. I think he’s “potentially” better than that though, and one to watch the market with.

    Shantou Village – In the process of running a huge race here last year, when he unseated, and he was bang there at the time. Hard to rule out on that evidence, and should come here fit.

    Plenty to time to change my mind, but those are the early ones of interest.

    #1501647
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3121

    You know who I’ll be backing!
    Possibly also Whisperinthebreeze

    #1501653
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17559

    I certainly do lol

    Whisperinthebreeze is a horse I really liked, big player if back to his best.

    #1501708
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17559

    Market up……

    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/kerry-national-handicap-chase/winner

    A few of these have double entries, including The Storyteller, Robin Des Foret, Whisperinthebreeze, and Peregrine Run.

    I really want to bet Ben Dundee, but I just wonder if he’s one for the other big Irish Chases in the next few months, once Mullins changes a few things with him. At 10’s I’m happy to hold off.

    The 16’s for the De Bromhead pair, Spyglass Hill & Plan of Attack looks too big, while the 25’s for Forza Milan is crying out to be taken, with a view to laying off.

    The one I didn’t mention was Treaceysenniscorthy, who I’ll be following this season. I’d love to see him get in, but it looks unlikely right now.

    #1501999
    Kendicate
    Participant
    • Total Posts 27

    I’m definitely with you on plan of attack and spyglass hill Venture. Robin Des forever just never seems to finish his race. Mullins has said he struggles to get up the hill at Galway and Cheltenham, bit everytime he comes there travelling and just doesn’t go through with it.

    I like Bay Hill at a price. He may not get in. First crack at 3 miles and he finishes his races really well. This race tends to go to a less exposed type more often than not, usually a horse having its first season out of novice company.

    #1502000
    Kendicate
    Participant
    • Total Posts 27

    I shud say that in 30yrs punting I’ve never had the winner of this I don’t think. So may be better off ignoring my thoughts

    #1502010
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17559

    My record patchy too Ken, but always like a go.

    Still no bet for me, but happy to see shortlist reduced with Ben Dundee missing, and The Storyteller running Sunday.

    Missed the 16’s mind you, on Plan of Attack.

    Shortlist
    Spyglass Hill
    Plan of Attack
    Forza Milan
    Shantou Village
    Treaceysenniscorthy

    #1502320
    waroftheroses
    Participant
    • Total Posts 16

    I was going to wait until the final field is known, but I can’t resist an ew on Cap York at 50-1.

    He ran an ok sort of race at Galway, and I think that from powerful connections he is too big a price.

    #1502427
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17559

    Roses, that’s not the worst shout I’ve seen, 50’s does look a little big to me.

    If I didn’t have as many in mind for this, I’d maybe take that myself, but I’m resigned to no Antepost this year, and a fresh look after Final Decs.

    #1502450
    jackh1092jackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2777

    I get the unexposed nature of Doctor Duffy‘s profile, but off 145 he couldn’t appeal to me as a horse that potentially would be rated like 150+ if he won this. Probably his Gold Cup though so who knows.

    I liked Spyglass Hill was Galway were he was PU. I would very much hope he would be capable of winning something like this. Henry won this last year with Poker Party who US in the Plate.

    There’s a chance he was flattered last year, but if the 40s is actually available on Forza Milan with Coral i’ll be having a bit of that. Nice novice form and i thought he was in with a chance at Cheltenham, which was wrong, but the race has a habit of either suiting horses or the opposite. I doubt it will be though.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1502460
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4585

    I’ve done some figures for this race and my top three are:

    Three Musketeers (14/1) – A bit hit or miss but every chance on form from first run of the season.

    Spyglass Hill (9/1) – Excuse at Galway, possibly hurt himself. Solid enough form from last winter puts him right in this.

    Ask Nile (25/1) – Upped in class but consistent enough and often on the premises.

    I’ve got another half dozen within 3lbs of these, so tight enough.

    #1502473
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17559

    As I said last night, that 50’s for Cap York looked great, and it looks just as good now, even at the 33’s.

    New shortlist of three, hoping to back just two, but whatever one it, I’ll be missing the better Antepost prices.

    Cap York
    Plan of Attack
    Spyglass Hill

    #1502477
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4585

    Price wise I would imagine that Industry SP (with BPG) will be the best way to go. Irish racing has discovered prices they didn’t know existed since ISP was introduced!

    #1502484
    fivelongdays
    Participant
    • Total Posts 612

    I think Doctor Duffy is a worthy favourite and, at 11/2, a decent sort of price right now.

    I’m also very interested in Demi Plie if she runs, while Freewheeling Dylan and Kupatana tickle my fancies, with Freewheeling Dylan just having the edge in my mind.

    Twitter=@PGHenn

    So don't run, just like the others always do

    #1502513
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3121

    Kupatana is a bit of a nutter isn’t she? From memory I think she was like it in England too. If she can be kidded or wrestled (by new jock whose lowest riding weight is 7lbs heavier than Blackmore’s) into settling then she has the talent to be in the mix.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 43 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.