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Kauto Star stays the Gold Cup trip when the pace is slow but has not proven that he stays the trip in a strongly run race Borsanic. That is not opinion it is a fact. I am not saying he won’t stay, just he might not.
I am a great fan of Kauto Star and rate him the best since Dessie, possibly even better. But sentiment does not come in to it, facts are facts.
Speed should not come in to it if Thomas does his job correctly, and goes a level pace.
If you were to give me Evens both horses in a match race (Gold cup course and distance on good / good-soft going) I would go for Kauto Star (only just). But he is not the same price. At current prices, I would keep my money in my pocket, but if you forced me to back one it would have to be Denman.Seems like I’m taking on all comers in this thread.
Paragraphs 3 and 9 of my post on page six. It won’t be a problem for him, trust me. Like I said, this horse is a freak.
It’s my opinion that he could probably win a Whitbread given the chance.
James a Q if i may
Your well taken by Denman, so why is your firm not best price Kauto???
…because the race is going to cut up badly and if Denman doesn’t win (unlikely I know) then Kauto Star will. The two combined should be taking out more of the book than they currently are imo.
On the day when the final field is known it may well be different and that will be the time to lay Kauto Star.
James a Q if i may
Your well taken by Denman, so why is your firm not best price Kauto???
…because the race is going to cut up badly and if Denman doesn’t win (unlikely I know) then Kauto Star will. The two combined should be taking out more of the book than they currently are imo.
On the day when the final field is known it may well be different and that will be the time to lay Kauto Star.
Thanks for the explanation James
- Total Posts 17716
Harry Findlay’s correct, Denman would have been more impressive had more use made of him, that doesn’t mean he is capable of stretching a Gold Cup field though.
What he, and many others, don’t seem to appreciate is that the horse is going to be asked to run faster, and jump quicker, than he ever has before.
That is the real test, and despite what HF says about him ‘bulldozing’ his fences, if he makes the errors – against mediocre/out of form horses in a small field, and on soft ground – that he did on Saturday, what is he going to do in the Gold Cup against the most talent-packed field he has ever met – and by some way?
Despite all the hyperbole, Denman has yet to show he is capable of winning a Gold Cup, others have, and don’t have to be backed on wishful thinking.Denman is in a similar scenario to what Kauto Star was last year, KS passed that particular test and there is nothing to say Denman won’t do the same
despite what HF says about him ‘bulldozing’ his fences
On this subject, does anyone else think that there must be something wrong with the fences at Newbury if a horse can make as serious a mistake as Denman did on Saturday – and the footage of it on C4 was incredible – and simply brush right through the fence to emerge unscathed on the other side having lost hardly any impetus? It’s all very well talking about his strength and physique but this was ridiculous, for me.
Denman is in a similar scenario to what Kauto Star was last year, KS passed that particular test and there is nothing to say Denman won’t do the same
The big difference is Kauto Star was beating horses he already had the measure of, Denman hasn’t faced a horse like Kauto, true you could say the same thing in reverse, but Denman hasn’t even faced a horse as good as Exotic Dancer yet either. Its all very mouth watering.
Round we go in circles saying the same things over and over again in a slightly different way.
Surely this subject has been done to death and we should just hope that all the main players turn up fit and well and then enjoy the day.
All this build up and hype, it’s all going to end in tears, I tell you!!!
Colin
Round we go in circles saying the same things over and over again in a slightly different way.
Surely this subject has been done to death and we should just hope that all the main players turn up fit and well and then enjoy the day.
All this build up and hype, it’s all going to end in tears, I tell you!!!
Colin
Are we not allowed to get excited by what some of us are seeing as the clash of a lifetime (or at least of many years)?
If you don’t like it why post and pour water on it for the rest of us?
Surely this deserves all the hype its getting. We don’t often get two great horses, going for the Gold Cup and they have both really caught the public’s imagination in a way we haven’t seen for years. You either have an open race with no stars or one star who is head and shoulders above the rest, and the fact they are both from ther same yard just adds to it all.
but Denman hasn’t even faced a horse as good as Exotic Dancer yet either
You are correct and that was the same scenario KS faced in KG and GC, where ED the Paddy Power, Boylesport winner was thought Kauto’s Star inferior by a decent margin
It took ED’s performance in the GC for him to be recognized as the decent horse he is now and ED’s Betfair Chase performance shows him to still be on the upward curve imo. Just like Denmans Hennesey, Lexus and Aon performances show him to be on the upward curve
Kauto imo could be be beaten by one or both of these progressing horses, he could put them both in their place
Fascinating race coming up at Chelters imo
You’ll have to excuse me, I am a miserable old ******* and I just find the constant repeating of the same things just a little boring.
I appreciate that to travel is often better than to arrive.
My own view and fear is that we will have a Mill House and Arkle scenario. I was a big Mill House fan and hated Arkle (for a short while) for what he did to MY horse.
I have always been a fan of Denman, he is a grand-looking animal, I saw him for the third time in the flesh at Newbury on Saturday, and he looked better than ever.
I thought Kauto Star was an over-hyped French import to begin with, a view that I have had to revise, not surprisingly. His achievements on the track last year had to win around any doubters.
To my mind he has looked more vulnerable this year but at the back of my mind is that feeling that he will find some pace at the end of the race that will find Denman out. I also think that Exotic Dancer might be capable of beating both of them. I think his run at Kempton can be ignored, connections panicked a bit by trying to change their tactics. He has finished close enough to Kauto Star in a number of races to make you think if things fell right for him he is well capable of winning a Gold Cup. If it turns into a duel between Denman and Kauto it is possible to see a stalking Exotic Dancer taking advantage.
But all this has been said before in many different ways, of course I’m looking forward to the race but let me suggest to you all this discussion beforehand is like the BBC’s build up to the Cup Final, as it used to be some years ago. By the time the game arrived you were nodding off in your chair and the game was rubbish anyway.
Apologies again for being such a miserable bastid, but you lot will be old one day.
Colin
The anticipation/speculation/difference in opinion is one of the best things about the whole Kauto v Denman bubble because when it comes to down to the actual race (and that’s if they both even make it), it might be a huge anti-climax because that’s sport/jump racing.
I’m finding it hard at the moment because I’m bricking it everytime I check the RP site/teletext/this forum because I just know how easy it would be for something to go wrong with either of them. Remember what happened to Best Mate the week before he was going to go for a 4th GC.
If the great showdown does happen, I’ve always been of the opinion that KS is the better horse but since the Hennessy I’ve had a voice in my head saying that he might not be able to peg back Denman if he is storming up the hill as you imagine he will do. Saturday’s demolition job only made that voice get louder!
This is a fascinating thread in my opinion
For me I still think it will be Kauto – I just can’t get his king george win out of my head. He just demolished high class horses
I was dissapointed with Denman in the Lexus but having watched it since I think he was better then what I thought. They didnt go much of a gallop and they really sprinted from the second last. No doubt he is a class act but to beat kauto fair and aquare then willm need to be one fo the greats, a machine. Maybe he is but its a huge ask
Gold Cup will be amazing not least the build up on the day. The good steady pace I think will suit Kauto, for me its when a sudden injection of pace is thrown in to the race that kauto starts to panic. This year he has jumped great expecially in the betfair and King George and see no reason why a nice even gallop should not suit him.I just hope Denman doesn’t burn himself out before they turn for home
Found next to nothing for Ruby after the last in the Lexus will find even less at Cheltenham. He has to kick after jumping the 3rd last and if that doesn’t shake off Kauto then he’s in big big trouble.
You’re not related to Nicky Mackay are you Fist?
I love these "found absolutely zero" (Mackay’s comments) and "found next to nothing" comments about horses who actually pull further clear.
FWIW Fist, Denman jumped the last about 2.5L clear, and won by 4L in the Lexus. After three miles, if that’s ‘finding nothing’ then I’m your uncle
Mike
Mike we are just looking at the race differently. Do me a favour and go back and watch the race again. Have a look at when Denman kicks for home approahcing the 3rd last. Note the distance between him and Beef or Salmon. You will find he’s somewhere between 5 and 7 leagths ahead of the old horse. At the line there is 5 1/2 lengths separating them. To me the 2nd and 3rd were stopping more than Denman was accelerating.
I stick by what I said that after the last Ruby went for the horse and he found next to nothing….He certaily wasn’t stopping but he wasn’t quickening up either, he was just maintaing his top gear gallop…..had Kauto been in that race he would have gone past Denman like he was standing still IMO and at Cheltenham I have no reason to think it will be any different.
I honestly think when Denman hits the Cheltenham hill if he has enough left to get up it he will not have gone fast enough to shake of Kauto or ED and will be done for toe…… if he goes too fast he simply wont get up the hill ……However the worse the ground the more it will suit Denman but then and only then do I think he could win. If it turns out to be a bog with his relentless gallop he could win by a distance if they speed horses get stuck in the mud.
5/4 says this reaches 100 pages
I’ll do you 11/8 without a flame-war breaking out, or 10/11 with.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
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