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Any thoughts on this, lads? I’m up for my punters club and I have Kempton on 26th. Buveur Dair unbackabke at 1/4; on Bristol De Mai for the KG. Any other thoughts for the day would be helpful. Not very knowledgeable on UK Novice Chasers or Hurdlers
Mias stom will walk this on goodish
If it turns up too soft ill probably back black cortonI was having a quick scan through the form on ATR. Black Corton looks like he has decent form which makes 5/1 appealing. You reckon he’s ground dependent?
No i dont think hes too dependant, anything around good to soft -soft is fine, the weight swing with elegant escape should reverse the form from last time, hes ultra consistent, but although the form from mias storm win does not look special, she absolutely bolted up and shes getting 7lbs from This lot, if the ground is good to soft or better she will win, ballyoptic, west approach, elegant escape are all nearly horses, i dont like any of them, fountains windfall was in with a chance when falling so could be thereabouts, off his hurdles mark should be capable of better but not a handicap so..
but i really like this mias storm, she needs to jump better though
I think ballyoptic will be hard to beat here, will get into a nice rhythm up front. Cheltenham just doesn’t suit the horse.
I think Ballyoptic will be outpaced, make a mistake.
He runs like a thorough stayer but is a bit high in the weights for one of the Nationals / 3m5f staying handicaps.
He reminds me of Don’t Push It.
I think Ballyoptic will be outpaced, make a mistake.
Absolutely. Best horse in the race for me but this isn’t for him.
I must be watching a different horse then
In any case I think this race takes some getting for novices- they were strung out like washing last year and I can recall quite a few renewals where the complexion of the race has changed after the final fence with horses getting very tired
From my blog:
A very hot novices chase as it usually is with the likes of Coneygree, Long Run and Strong Flow as past winners. I think Antony Honeyball is a good trainer whom the betting public has not yet cottoned on to. His Fountains Windfall is my choice here. He won easily on his chasing debut and despite being quite keen throughout at Newbury last time he was still in the front line and with every chance when knuckling over on landing three out.
Some of his early jumps were a bit sketchy that day but he seems the type to learn from mistakes (touch wood).
Fountains Windfall 7/1
Quite a decent race on paper, but there are a few horses in it worth opposing.
Ballyoptic would easily win it, if it would be a Flat race, however he makes just too many mistakes for me to think him being a G1 winner over fences. At least not for the moment.
West Approach has a terrible record in competitive races, jumps too much to his left and simply doesn’t have the class for it. I’m not quite sure that he is suited by the track.
Fountains Windfall beat nothing at Southwell and fell when running over “proper” fences at Newbury. He also is better suited when going left-handed and this track might be a bit against him as well.
Mia’s Storm won a pretty decent chase at Chepstow when beating Elegant Escape, but her Listed Race win at Market Rasen in a Mares’ only event doesn’t impress me much. She is also about two stones inferior to Ballyoptic over hurdles and would have to improve again to win a G1 chase against the “boys”.
Black Corton is more of a summer horse to me and would need to improve again, if he is to win this race. His form is pretty solid though, so is his jumping.
In the end I will stick with Elegant Escape, just hoping that his 2nd to Samcro in a PTP was no fluke and also because Colin Tizzard decided to run him in the 3m Chase at Newbury. A race which the stable has won for the third year in a row, I think. He still has to improve a few pounds to win this, but he appears a reasonable bet @ 11/2.
From my blog:
A very hot novices chase as it usually is with the likes of Coneygree, Long Run and Strong Flow as past winners. I think Antony Honeyball is a good trainer whom the betting public has not yet cottoned on to. His Fountains Windfall is my choice here. He won easily on his chasing debut and despite being quite keen throughout at Newbury last time he was still in the front line and with every chance when knuckling over on landing three out.
Some of his early jumps were a bit sketchy that day but he seems the type to learn from mistakes (touch wood).
Fountains Windfall 7/1
Shushshshshshshshshshshshshshshshshs. Don’t tell everyone about Honeyball, Joe.
Totally agree with you, Fountains Windfall 7/1 a good bet. Jumped pretty well on debut but not so good at Newbury. So did pretty well to be still bang there with a chance when falling two out. Takes on the first and second again, Elegant Escape and Black Corton. Elegant Escape pressed Fountains Windfall for the lead and Ballyoptic another who likes to be up there. I’m still hoping Coleman takes at least a share of the lead this time. Black Corton is weighted to take revenge on Elegant Escape but to my line of thinking the Nicholls horse doesn’t have the scope for further improvement of his old rivals. However, tbh this doesn’t look a great Kauto Star, the two at the head of the market most likely to go on to more Grade 1 success. Ballyoptic will be suited by significant rain – more of a test of stamina the better for him. Good staying hurdler who should eventualy make an equally good chaser. Two reasons I haven’t made him a main bet are his jumping and form of the yard; although not bad it’s not as good as it was when Ballyoptic was last seen. The mare Mia’s Storm already has an easy victory over Elegant Escape, although both have probably improved since. 13 lengths winner of what looked on paper a competitive Listed mares race last time and gets the handy (too handy) 7 lbs allowance. May not want the ground too testing at this 3 miles, but other than that looks the one they all have to beat. Tizzard second string West Approach had Modus beaten last time out at Exeter, good form but hasn’t impressed me in the way he races, risky at fences. Some Invitation has scope for improvement, but needs to progress as if not will be outclassed here.I’ve backed Fountains Windfall @ 7/1 and Mia’s Storm 5/2 with a saver on Ballyoptic 4/1. Although if turning really testing will think about swapping Ballyoptic and Mia’s Storm over.
Value Is EverythingHeavy rain last night has surely turned the ground against Mia’s Storm- if she were mine, she’d be withdrawn. In what is likely to turn into quite a stiff test, I fancy Ballyoptic to outstay the rest of them.
The going is still the same.
Yeah- just saw that. I’m quite surprised, seeing that it was absolutely bucketing down last night. Kempton must’ve missed the worst of it.
The going is still the same.
Yeah- just saw that. I’m quite surprised, seeing that it was absolutely bucketing down last night. Kempton must’ve missed the worst of it.
Only 6mm hit the track
Fancy Ballyoptic in this!
There’s a few formlines which tie in most at the head of the market…just feel last time behind Black Corton he was beaten for jumping experience…
With that race behind him too I expect him to jump a bit better today and think he’ll prove today he’s a fair bit better than these..
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