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Theyve given the Welsh also as Good to Soft yes, theyve got Bristol race -3.80 quicker than Median time and the Welsh 12.60 slower than median time stating both as Good to Soft 0.28 sec per furlong.
Real heavy ground is usually 1.00 or higher per second in Raceform. Emperor Choices wins before are stated 1.00+ per second.
I still think it wasnt the real Heavy rainy soft mud, it might have been testing, but what you do in winter its cold it freezes maybe the ground is stated heavy but the ground is harder due to frost, than an autumn ground with higher temperatures and heavy rain before, thats my kind of interpretation of the race times and i think Bristol De Mai went better on testing frozen ground than today on rainy soft ground.I notice Twiston-Davies had three pulled up today and they weren’t rank outsiders either. Splash Of Ginge was around 9/2 last night but went off 7/1 before being pulled up. Just a little bit disconcerting looking at a trainer’s form and seeing three PU’s on the trot. He did have one winner today though.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I wouldn’t read too much into the run of Splash Of Ginge. The trainer still hasn’t noticed, but his horse is utterly hopeless on right handed tracks.
BHA
Nigel Twiston-Davies, the trainer of SPLASH OF GINGE, which was pulled up, reported that the gelding was unsuited by the right-handed track. The Stewards ordered the gelding to be routine tested.
He knows now
BHA
Nigel Twiston-Davies, the trainer of SPLASH OF GINGE, which was pulled up, reported that the gelding was unsuited by the right-handed track. The Stewards ordered the gelding to be routine tested.
He knows now
To be fair to the trainer, the horse
has
only run 18 times before
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nigel Twiston-Davies was disappointed with the run of
Bristol De Mai
, my comment to that was, he had no chance on the figures.
Garde La Victoire
31Jan15 San 16.5Sft C1HL 14K 1/4 (½L, Jollyallan11-2) 11/4
110
17Jan15 Asc 19.5Sft C1HcHG2 28K 4/8 (7¼L, Baradari10-4) 11/4F
125
20Dec14 Asc 16GS C1HcHG3 84K 5/18 (7L, Bayan11-5) 14/1
136
16Nov14 Chl 16.5Sft C1HcHG3 56K 1/15 (1¼L, Vaniteux11-12) 10/1
127
25Oct14 Ain 17Gd C2HcH 25K 3/9 (2¾L, Hawk High11-10) 5/2F
122
16Apr14 Chl 20.5Gd C2NvH 10K 1/7 (6L, Oscars Den11-4) 13/8F
74
03Apr14 Tau 19.5Gd C4NvH 4K 1/13 (1¼L, Vesperal Dream10-11) 4/9F
100
11Mar14 Chl 16.5GS C1NvHG1 68K 14/18 (18½L, Vautour11-7) 33/1
134
Bristol De Mai
31Jan15 San 16.5Sft C1HL 14K 3/4 (8½L, Garde La Victoire11-4) 11/8F
102
27Dec14 Chp 16.5Hy C13yHG1 19K 1/10 (6L, Karezak11-0) 6/1
118
27Sep14 Aut 18VSft 3yH 19K 1/13 (nk, Brin De Thaix10-3) 41/1
111
Sandown going allowances:
Hurdles
-1.33s/f
(heavy)
Chase-1.10s/f
(heavy)
Mike.
Nigel Twiston-Davies was disappointed with the run of
Bristol De Mai
, my comment to that was, he had no chance on the figures.
Maybe he thought the horse had improved a lot from his first run for the stable. He’s only a youngster, hardly an old, exposed sort. Anyway, he looks out of the picture after that effort.
Hargam had an easy win at Musselburgh on Sunday and it’s an unusual place for a Cheltenham contender to have their final prep race. He didn’t beat much but could hardly have done it more easily. Given good ground he might just have a chance to beat his more fancied stable companion and hot favourite Peace And Co. I am happy enough with 16/1 on him and think Ladbrokes 10/1 is worth an each-way shout
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nicky Henderson had the following to say about Hargam after the race:-
“I wasn’t even sure if we were in front, they were that wide apart. AP said it rode like a good race. He certainly thinks better ground will suit. They went a really good pace and it’s pretty testing ground.
“March is the objective and we’ll work back from there. There’s a race here in January (Trials Day) but if it’s heavy ground he’d miss that. I have a couple more juveniles to come out but he’s up there with the best of them.”
Peace and Co deserves to be at the top of the betting for the Triumph but at as low as 5/1 the value is questionable and is Hargam really almost three times less likely to win it at 14/1?
Kalkir is 5/1 in places as well and a book that was once 16/1 the field is decimated to one where Stan James (no surprises there) and Corals have two horses at 5/1. Rancid value there.
imo P&C is better value @ 6/1 than Hargam @ 14’s, because his form is much better and that after just one appearance for Henderson where he pulled for much of the race. Any horse should improve for their first run since June and particularly one that could well relax more with the freshness out of him. Not that he needs to improve much after winning this Grade 2 barely off the bridle by 19 lengths and 13, giving 3 lbs to the runner-up in a very good time considering the soft ground.
There is always a chance a horse will not run so well given different conditions. But sire Falco although himself by Pivotal won the French Guineas on good-firm (by far best run). Dam didn’t run but dam’s sire Linamix also winner of the same race in course record time (pretty firm). More’s to the point, P&C did not show the exaggerated rounded action so often associated with horses needing very soft conditions to be at their best. So the chance of him needing soft to produce his best is significantly reduced. Indeed, because there’s so much pace in the pedigree there’s a chance an increased test of speed is in his favour, although full brother Piccolino stayed 2m2f.
I can see the arguement of Hargam being better on good ground, by a known good ground sire in Sinndar and seemed to have a top-of-the-ground action. But he’s got to improve significantly to get near his stable companion who’s had less racing. Might be a concern if Henderson fails to find a Supreme Novices horse and (like Binocular) splits his good juveniles. But the shortest horse in the Supreme betting is Lami Serge, from the same owners as P&C’s.
No matter how Henderson currently rates the two horses at the moment, there’s quite a bit between them on form and trainers in the end usually favour the form book. Confident Nicky will know who is best come March, not that he’ll say so, because of who Hargam’s owner is. To do what Peace And Co did with so little experience – this is some juvenile. Provided a slightly high head carriage is not a sign of temperament, think he’s going to prove top class.
Value Is EverythingGiven good ground he might just have a chance to beat his more fancied stable companion and hot favourite Peace And Co. I am happy enough with 16/1 on him and think Ladbrokes 10/1 is worth an each-way shout
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Bonito Du Berlais kicked off the new French jumps season with another emphatic victory at Auteuil yesterday.
Had he run in the Triumph Hurdle , I am in doubt he would have won…Auteuil (FR)
14-Mar-15
01:00 Choeur Du Nord 1m7f 54
01:30 Pinson Du Rheu 2m1½f 20
02:08 Atuvuedenuo 2m3½f 117
02:40 Lachlan Bridge 2m6f 87
03:15 Bonito Du Berlais 2m2f 106
03:45 Yellow Ball 2m2½f 116
04:20 Boheme 2m1½f 23
04:52 Speedy Blue Girl 2m3½f 110Going allowance -0.32s/f (good to soft)
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