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I didn’t mean to sound critical of connections. Unless owners feel the need to prove something by coming to Cheltenham to take on the British and Irish horses, you can’t blame them for staying at home.
It’s actually good news for me that he probably won’t contest the Triumph.
I didn’t think you were sounding critical
Chatez was a good winner today but Alan King has stated that the owners aren’t keen on the Triumph Hurdle, perhaps explaining why Ladbrokes were 25/1, while others were as low as 14/1 in the aftermath.
It was suggested they might skip Cheltenham and wait for Aintree with Chatez, who could run at Kempton the day after Boxing Day.
Chatez was a different class yesterday but frustratingly, I don’t feel much was learned about his stamina. Similar to the Bangor run, there was next to no gallop for half of the race and the Warwick event was over a furlong shorter. He almost certainly stays two miles and the likes of Aintree and Kempton should prove no problem but one can understand why connections would be reticent about sending him to Cheltenham. At least for this season.
But yeah, the entries you posted earlier this week have been fulfilled to a spectacular degree. Nyanza, Old Guard, El Beau and Golden Doyen are missing but with the exception of the latter, the rest are represented by exciting stablemates. Between quarter past twelve and twenty past two, the Triumph market will endure a seismic shift.
The first of the two cracking juveniles kicks off Cheltenham’s card and looks the stronger of the two at this stage. David Pipe and John Quinn are represented by undefeated animals in Stars Over The Sea and Mr Gallivanter whilst Hargam tests the course and distance from from last month against his conqueror’s conqueror Karezak.
The Triumph lists are currently headed by Willie Mullins’ Kalkir. After a bit of a power gap is the UK’s strongest hopeful in the shape of Nicky Henderson’s grey.
Hargam
went into last month’s Grade Two Triumph Hurdle Trial with a massive reputation and emerged from the race with the reputation intact rather than it being significantly enhanced. Throughout the race, he travelled like an absolute dream and it was difficult to find fault in his jumping. Turning for home, he was caught for pace but after working his way through the gears and clearing the last, he took the lead and had the race at his mercy. However, he idled and it was this that cost him the race as he was headed shortly before the line. This wouldn’t be the first time this kind of thing happened with Hargam as this trait almost cost him his only race to date at Longchamp where he only just clung on. On the plus side, no hurdling debutant had ever won that particular event so it is most encouraging that he came so close to breaking that trend. The firmer ground forecast for tomorrow may also be to suit as Hargam’s win came on good to soft. Three horses from that Cheltenham race have since ran – the third, Baraka De Thaix, was hugely disappointing at Sandown although it wasn’t without excuses, fourth placed Unanimite ran with credit on the flat off 94 and the tailed off Haleo led until the penultimate flight at Warwick yesterday. The form of the winner, Golden Doyen, is holding up though as the second and third from his Warwick race have since improved and Karezak ran an honourable race in defeat at Newbury. Whilst Golden Doyen outbattled Hargam at Cheltenham,
Karezak
outbattled Golden Doyen at Chepstow. What’s more, he will only be giving three pounds to Hargam whilst Golden Doyen gave four, so in the strictest of terms, Karezak trumps Hargam. Of course, racing isn’t that simple and whilst Hargam’s second start over hurdles might bring improvement, Karezak’s second run wasn’t a successful one. Fifteen days ago at Newbury, Karezak was beaten into second – a position he had filled on six consecutive occasions on the flat before his change in career. Nevertheless, it was a most creditable performance as he was beaten by the only Nicholls juvenile to have performed this term in Old Guard – a horse who had been schooling with Fighting Fifth winner Irving – and in the end, they were separated by only a neck despite Karezak giving away six pounds. Indeed, the Alan King charge was arguably unlucky not to win that day as he was rather crowded approaching the last, unable to be booted into the flight by Richard Johnson and as he drifted on the run in, Johnson momentarily lost his balance and was unable to fully drive his mount who whilst not a bottle job as shown by his Chepstow run, most probably needs as much encouragement thrown at him as possible in order to hit top gear. The standard he brings is as high as anything shown this season and his profile was given a further boost when the horse who beat him on his last flat start made a winning hurdles debut last Thursday.
Stars Over The Sea
would have to be the most exciting juvenile seen this season so far. Not necessarily because of his blatant abundance of talent, but largely because he’s the type who could either win this race by ten lengths in a hack canter or crash his way through every flight and have nothing left for the finish. Thought good enough to contest the Chester Vase on the flat, he was sent off as favourite for his hurdles debut at Kempton. There he looked completely unnatural taking an absolutely fierce grip very very nearly getting rid of Tom Scudamore at the first and although he put in a few very good jumps in the middle part of the race, he landed on all fours in the straight but he won with anything in hand so it didn’t really matter. He put in a much more polished performance next time out at Ludlow and put in some impressively fast jumps along the way as well as a couple of blunders and a repeat of his landing on all fours. The manner in which he dismissed his rivals was awesome as he cruised effortlessly into the lead and needed nothing more than a single nudge to storm twenty-two lengths clear of the remainder. Completely unexposed over hurdles, he still sits in the could be anything bracket although his idiosyncratic style of jumping may well expose him in this company.
Mr Gallivanter
is two from two over hurdles after wins at Stratford and Kelso. He made a significant blunder en route to victory at Stratford but it was impressive how he was able to maintain composure and in the end he won with a bit of authority from two subsequent winners in Gimme Five and Relentless Pursuit. After a run on the flat, he won again at Kelso where nothing was really learned although he did it by twenty-one lengths despite taking a bit of a hold. He’s done nothing wrong so far and clearly has a future in this discipline but it is natural to be a bit concerned about his absence that stretched back to the beginning of October and the fact that he skipped a possible run in the Wensleydale hurdle that month.
Boss Des Mottes
ran into third on his only start in a Maisons Laffitte bumper which had a purse of €45,000 making it a valuable enough affair, although the form hasn’t really worked out for better or for worse with the winner losing at Saint Cloud and the fifth winning at Argentan. Sent off as favourite for his UK/hurdles debut at Doncaster, his jumping ranged from proficient to deliberate and though he had every chance, he could only finish third behind 50/1 shot Two B’s and perennial non-winner Witch From Rome. He can win races and will probably improve for a step up in trip but he’s unlikely to get too involved here.
Beatabout The Bush
began his flat career with Charlie Hills before being sold to run in Ireland for just 1,200 guineas and in four runs for Aidan Anthony Howard, that price tag looked justified. However, whilst he finished last on his first hurdles run at Ballinrobe, he wasn’t totally disgraced and he built on that promise next time when less than five lengths third at Gowran. The winner and runner up were both well beaten next time behind Scooping although the fifth, Lone Star, was a subsequent winner so the form is at least fair. Nevertheless, he has since moved back to England to join Henry Oliver and whilst there could be races in him, this is a huge ask.
Dolce N Karama
is the only hurdling newcomer in the field although he does have the strongest individual bit of flat form of all of these in the shape of his fourth in last year’s Racing Post Trophy where he beat, among others, the great The Grey Gatsby. This year started with a couple of fruitless runs at Meydan and after getting stuffed in the Irish 2000 Guineas, he failed to win in any of six maidens including at the likes of Hamilton and Ffos Las. He did finally get off the mark just over a fortnight ago at Dundalk in a five runner rated race and this versatile type is said to have schooled well ahead of his new excursion. It wouldn’t be a the shock of the century if he ran with credit but it wouldn’t be far off were he able to win this thing.
Arbitrary 1-2-3
1. Karezak
2. Hargam
3. Stars Over The SeaStars Over The Sea 5/4
Behrajan
1st Long Distance Hurdle (G2), Haydock 2000
Karezak 3/2Kalann
10th Champion Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2012 (3/1 Kasthari 140 3/2 Karasenir 136 4/1 Mohayer 140)
Dolce N Karamana 4/1Top Spin
3rd Long Walk Hurdle (G1), Ascot 1995 (4/3 Loch Long, 5/1 Roark)
Boss Des Mottes 4/3Elie Des Mottes
1st Prix Finot (Listed), Auteuil 1991
Beatabout The Bust 3/3Deepsand
1st Handicap Hurdle (121), Perth 2013 (3/3 You Need Luck)
Mr Gallivanter 3/2Mohanad
Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (Listed), Wetherby 2009 (.5 Kissing Clara)
Hargam 3/2Vocative
1st Juvenile Hurdle, Haydock 2005
Sires
Boss Des Mottes – Califet (5)
Hargam – Sinndar (5)
Karezak – Azamour (4)
Stars Over The Sea – Sea The Stars
Dolce N Karamana – The Carbon Unit
Beatabout The Bust – Bushranger
Mr Gallivanter – Heliostatic***Marracudja is also declared for this race. However, his preference is for the Doncaster for the race so I will write about him in the preview for that race. If he does run at Cheltenham, I wouldn’t put him in the arbitrary 1-2-3.
Early market movement on the Triumph Hurdle Trial seems to indicate confidence in Hargam. The first price I saw showed him coming in to 13/8 and all of that price has dried up currently. Ladbrokes and Hills only go 5/4 at the moment.
He’s short enough at those odds and I would see the value as being one of either Stars Over The Sea, or Karezak, who are both 7/2. I make it really tight between the two but normally I will side in favour of the unbeaten horse.
Looking at them closer, I would give Stars Over The Sea the chance to put up a sharper hurdling performance and perhaps favour him over Karezak, who sports a first time visor, for whatever reason.
Hargam is open to improvement on his second start and some punters will probably see AP McCoy as a possible galvanising influence at the business end of the race, on a horse who perhaps idled the race from his own grasp last time. As a punting prospect tomorrow he is too short in the market when you consider the good opposition lining up.
Karezak seems largely unconsidered for the Triumph Hurdle itself, at odds of 33/1, while 25/1 on Stars Over The Sea could look big this time tomorrow.
I’m looking forward to the race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The Summit Juvenile used to be run at Lingfield. When it was run, it was sometimes taken by a future champion with Oh So Risky, Anzum and Hors La Loi III all finding their way to the winners enclosure. However, it wasn’t run very often though as Lingfield had an unfortunate record of beating the elements. So now it is run at Doncaster. Recently, the Cheltenham race has become the stronger of the two races but this event has been contested by the likes of Royal Irish Hussar and Sametegal in its new form and this years renewal looks at least strong as any to have taken place in Yorkshire.
Falco 3/1
Princeton
3rd Prix Alain du Briel, Auteuil 1996 (3/1 Pistolet Bleu)
Peace And Co is unbeaten after one start, taking a Clairefontaine contest in late June. Whilst the level of competition isn’t fantastically high during the summer months, it was a reasonably valuable race of its type. Furthermore, the runner up has won a race by 14l at Vittel while the fourth has since finished second in a similar contest over course and distance.
(Blue, pink hoop, yellow cap)Nicky Henderson has sent out three juveniles this season. As well as stable minnow Princess Ombu, Hargam and Bivouac have made strong statement this season and a third potential star is released tomorrow.
Peace And Co
finally makes his UK debut after his sole French start back in June noted above. Since that post, the runner up Ballotin since gave a lot of weight away when narrowly going down against the listed class Achour before finishing third in a Groupe II. The third picked up a contest at Enghien before finishing sixth in at Groupe III and the fifth has since finished third in a listed hurdle at Auteuil. As is evident in the above clip, he beat these rivals very comfortably and his jumping was most proficient so he standard of his form is worthy of great respect. Whilst he ran green on that occasion and is a tall and angular stamp of a horse*, he still features prominently in Triumph lists and the fact that he debuts here suggests that he’s thought capable of making a strong impact this season.
Martaline (5) .5
Molotof
2nd Pendil Novices’ Chase (G2), Kempton 2013
Marracudja made a highly encouraging start to his career with a solid effort at Auteuil, splitting the ill fated Le Baron Noir and dual listed winner Bonito du Berlais. However, in two subsequent starts at the track, he has been able to build on that promise. Beaten 34l behind over an extended 2m2f behind Kobrouk, he ran a little better when beaten 12l by Saint d’Arcole over 1m7f. Another who’ll be under the care of Paul Nicholls, he was purchased by Potensis after his first outing.
(he ran in orange with white sash and noseband on his debut)Marracudja
is another French import and he brings a potential game ending strand of form in the shape of his debut run at Auteuil. Since the above post, Bonito du Berlais has left even those listed wins behind to become champion French juvenile and one of the most exciting horses of any age in Europe. Bonito du Berlais was clearly given way too much to do in that race and if ridden correctly, would have won easily. Nevertheless, a similar excuse doesn’t exist for the fourth placed Kalkir who since dotted up in a Fairyhouse Grade Three and shot to the head of the Triumph market in the process. This form in and of itself would make Marracudja a clear favourite in pretty much any race in the UK. However, his next two starts were so far removed from his debut effort that they were too bad to be true. As it transpired, it’s said that he suffered with ulcers and since joining Paul Nicholls and enjoying a break, has gained a good fifty kilograms. Nevertheless, to say that Paul Nicholls’ juveniles have been disappointing so far this season would be an understatement and though he could be a cut above his stablemates, he still has illness and the stable trend to overcome. Furthermore, he’s being aimed high in any case as the trainer stated that he wouldn’t mind keeping him as a maiden for next season as he’s one for the future. Marracudja has the potential to be very high class but there are enough doubts for the time being.
Starchitect
cost 110,000 guineas in July despite being a maiden on the flat and he made a very dubious start to his hurdling campaign at Bangor. To the relief of his connections, that Bangor race was an anomaly in terms of the collective pace and attitude of the entire field and his follow up effort at Aintree was much more pleasing. His jumping was proficient and whilst it took him a while to reach his stride, his attitude was one of hardy professionalism. It should be noted that the race was probably handed to him by Unanimite and he came out inferior to the David Pipe horse on weights. Furthermore, his lack of acceleration may be an issue against the two French imports but he’s still entitled to put in a bold effort.
L’Aigle Royal
is yet another ex-French racehorse in his four French starts, he took a small contest at Nancy in May. That form has actually worked out reasonably well although a more relevant line occurred next time at Clairefontaine where he finished fourth, but roughly equal on weights, to Achour. Through that line with Ballotin, L’Aigle Royal would find himself behind Peace And co. All the same, the John Quinn inmate has shown promise in both of his UK starts. His debut at Sedgefield was defined by flawless jumping and a promise to stay further. His latest effort came in the Triumph Trial at Cheltenham where he jumped well again and whilst he was predictably outpaced, he finished only a short head behind Unanimite. In all, his form entitles him to to run creditably although his lack of pace will probably prevent him from winning.
Officer Drivel
was consistent albeit limited on the flat and he’s continued this trend over hurdles. Winless in his first four starts in runs blighted by an excitable disposition and questionable stamina, he was fortunate enough to find a race of his own in the form of a Wetherby maiden. Whilst not a terrible maiden, it wasn’t too strong either and whilst his next win is likely to come in a handicap at some point, his current mark 116 seems harsh for what he’s achieved.
Very Intense
is the sole hurdling debutant in the field and as well as trainer Tom Lacey’s first ever juvenile, he bids to become only his third ever winner. Nevertheless, a price tag of 50,000 guineas paid at the Tattersalls Horses-in-Training sale is a statement of ambition for the fledgling yard. Very Intense ran on the flat for Jim Bolger and twice finished placed in eighteen runner Navan maidens on his last two starts. Whilst finished ahead of two subsequent winners in those races, there is only a limited amount of form to have come out of that race but Very Intense did demonstrate that he stays and handles soft ground perfectly well. Nevertheless, it would be a gargantuan achievement if Tom Lacey is able to win this contest.
Arbitrary 1-2-3
1. Peace And Co
2. L’Aigle Royal
3. MarracudjaPeace And Co 3/1
Princeton
3rd Prix Alain du Briel, Auteuil 1996 (3/1 Pistolet Bleu)
Marracudja .5Molotof
2nd Pendil Novices’ Chase (G2), Kempton 2013
Starchitect 4/2Vandas Choice
2nd Handicap Chase (Listed,135), Wetherby 2005
L’Aigle Royal 1/0Laren
1st Stall Jenny-Cup Finale Hurdle (Listed), München 2005
Officer Drivel 2/1King Of Oriel
1st Handical Hurdle (95), Punchestown 2013
Very Intense no jumps relativesSires
Marracudja – Martaline (5)
Officer Drivel – Captain Rio (2)
Peace And Co – Falco
Starchitect – Sea The Stars
L’Aigle Royal – Sholokhov
Very Intense – Intense Focus*(I do apologise for describing him as an "archetypical hurdler" in the Bivouac post. This was an oversight on my part)
I have just watched Peace And Co’s win and it is not difficult to be taken by the way he travelled and jumped. However, he ended up hanging quite significantly across the track despite having the race won. Sometimes that is immaturity but sometimes that sort of thing is a kink. I see he is already a best priced 25/1 for the Triumph but personally I would want to see a more straightforward attitude before thinking of backing him for any race.
I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw Hargam was 8/11F and there must have been some fluttering of wallets, not to mentions sphincters, as the two leaders raced wide apart on the run-in.
Hargam prevailed from Kazerak but it was all a bit desperate and certainly didn’t reflect the confidence behind him in the betting.
Sea The Stars was a long way back in third after pulling hard and making one mistake. On this evidence he’s quite a way behind the first two and I had to shake my head when Steve Mellish’s co-commentator asked him if the seven pounds and four pounds weight concessions to Hargam and Kazerak had made the difference.
Let’s see Pal, he was beaten 29 lengths and 30 and 1/4 lengths by the first two, so forgive me if I don’t bother reaching for the slide rule!
Steve Mellish seemed much more interested in talking about the runner up, rather than the winner, who barely got a mention, other than that he was cautious at some of his flights and proved he gets the trip. We were told his price was unchanged for the Triumph Hurdle but there seemed little enthusiasm for the horse and perhaps there wasn’t much to get excited about here.
As a race to impact on the Triumph Hurdle betting it didn’t deliver anything other than probably ruling Stars Over The Sea out as a realistic contender. Peace and Co, whose race I haven’t seen yet is generally 16/1 now and third favourite for the race. I’ll check him out later and consider how he sits compared to today’s 1-2 that hasn’t inspired the ante-post community.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think I was more perturbed by Karezak being called Karezan by Richard Hoiles and Kazerak by Steve Mellish.
I’m not quite sure what to make of that race. Whilst the first two clearly put in the best performances of the UK season, there is the niggling impression that there will be better UK representatives come the 13th of March. Nicky Henderson did say that McCoy remarked how he’d be better on quicker ground which bodes well for the race whereas Karezak already looks like he needs further.
I think it would only take a hugely impressive performance from Peace And Co or maybe Marracudja to make a wave in the Triumph market.
I think I was more perturbed by Karezak being called Karezan by Richard Hoiles and Kazerak by Steve Mellish.
I’m not quite sure what to make of that race. Whilst the first two clearly put in the best performances of the UK season, there is the niggling impression that there will be better UK representatives come the 13th of March. Nicky Henderson did say that McCoy remarked how he’d be better on quicker ground which bodes well for the race whereas Karezak already looks like he needs further.
I think it would only take a hugely impressive performance from Peace And Co or maybe Marracudja to make a wave in the Triumph market.
That Kazerak thing is catching! I had the horse fine yesterday and Mellish put me away with his version of Karezak’s name.
Peace and Co put in a mighty performance and surely deserves to be the clear favourite for the Triumph Hurdle after that showing today. The 25/1 for the Triumph Hurdle is a distant memory and shows that you need to take a leap of faith with any concerns you have, in order to be on at a value price.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Peace and Co put in a mighty performance and surely deserves to be the clear favourite for the Triumph Hurdle after that showing today. The 25/1 for the Triumph Hurdle is a distant memory and shows that you need to take a leap of faith with any concerns you have, in order to be on at a value price.
Taken the 8/1 for the Triumph.
Value Is EverythingI think I was more perturbed by Karezak being called Karezan by Richard Hoiles and Kazerak by Steve Mellish.
I’m not quite sure what to make of that race. Whilst the first two clearly put in the best performances of the UK season, there is the niggling impression that there will be better UK representatives come the 13th of March. Nicky Henderson did say that McCoy remarked how he’d be better on quicker ground which bodes well for the race whereas Karezak already looks like he needs further.
I think it would only take a hugely impressive performance from Peace And Co or maybe Marracudja to make a wave in the Triumph market.
That Kazerak thing is catching! I had the horse fine yesterday and Mellish put me away with his version of Karezak’s name.
Peace and Co put in a mighty performance and surely deserves to be the clear favourite for the Triumph Hurdle after that showing today. The 25/1 for the Triumph Hurdle is a distant memory and shows that you need to take a leap of faith with any concerns you have, in order to be on at a value price.
Apparently, Karezak is Basque for calcareous (I have no idea) and to be honest, the former seems much easier to pronounce…
That really was a powerhouse of a performance. Visually, it was flawless and through a Starchitect line, he is clear of anything else seen in the UK so far. I’m not a betting man these days but going by what you’re saying about faith in the face of uncertainty then Top Notch may be massive at 33/1. It is a concern that he’s yet to emerge and Nicky Henderson didn’t even mention him before but he could easily be the type to pick up a small race in February and go off at single figures in the Triumph.
As a side note, Bishop Wulstan put in a good effort in the closing Doncaster handicap and would have won if he had a stronger jockey. Running off 120, it was easily the best handicap performance from a juvenile so far and the fact he narrowly beat Aristocracy Ludlow adds another dimension to the Golden Doyen/Hargam/Karezak bracket of form.
After watching
Peace and Co
hack up at Doncaster, the speed figure he achieved today is right up there with
Bonito Du Belais
@
116
.
Going allowances:
Doncaster-0.35s/f
(good to soft)
Cheltenham-0.39s/f
(good to soft)
Doncaster
13-Dec-14
11:55 Robbie 2m3f
105
12:30 Zeroeshadesofgrey 3m½f
114
01:05 Kashmir Peak 2m½f
72
01:40 Grandads Horse 3m
97
02:15 Peace And Co 2m½f
116
02:50 Virak 3m
138
03:25 Knight In Purple 2m½f
71
Cheltenham
13-Dec-14
12:15 Hargam 2m1f
103
12:50 Champagne West 2m5f
117
01:25 Sew On Target 2m½f
125
02:00 Niceonefrankie 2m5f
126
02:35 Blaklion 3m
102
03:10 The New One 2m1f
113
03:45 Rock On Ruby 2m4½f
78
Mike.
Very taking performance from a handsome individual, but I’d just hold fire to see him on faster ground. His trainer hinted afterwards that the ground might have been the reason he surprised even Henderson.
Nicky Henderson had the following to say about Hargam after the race:-
"I wasn’t even sure if we were in front, they were that wide apart. AP said it rode like a good race. He certainly thinks better ground will suit. They went a really good pace and it’s pretty testing ground.
"March is the objective and we’ll work back from there. There’s a race here in January (Trials Day) but if it’s heavy ground he’d miss that. I have a couple more juveniles to come out but he’s up there with the best of them."
Peace and Co deserves to be at the top of the betting for the Triumph but at as low as 5/1 the value is questionable and is Hargam really almost three times less likely to win it at 14/1?
Kalkir is 5/1 in places as well and a book that was once 16/1 the field is decimated to one where Stan James (no surprises there) and Corals have two horses at 5/1. Rancid value there.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nicky Henderson had the following to say about Hargam after the race:-
"I wasn’t even sure if we were in front, they were that wide apart. AP said it rode like a good race. He certainly thinks better ground will suit. They went a really good pace and it’s pretty testing ground.
"March is the objective and we’ll work back from there. There’s a race here in January (Trials Day) but if it’s heavy ground he’d miss that. I have a couple more juveniles to come out but he’s up there with the best of them."
Peace and Co deserves to be at the top of the betting for the Triumph but at as low as 5/1 the value is questionable and is Hargam really almost three times less likely to win it at 14/1?
Kalkir is 5/1 in places as well and a book that was once 16/1 the field is decimated to one where Stan James (no surprises there) and Corals have two horses at 5/1. Rancid value there.
I don’t really see why you quote Peace And Co at that price Dave. Nobody is going to take 5/1 when 6’s is freely available. The only prices that matter are best prices available. 6/1 = 14.3% and 14/1 = 6.7%. So P&C is not "almost three times", it’s only just over two. imo P&C is better value @ 6/1 than Hargam @ 14’s, because his form is much better and that after just one appearance for Henderson where he pulled for much of the race. Any horse should improve for their first run since June and particularly one that could well relax more with the freshness out of him. Not that he needs to improve much after winning this Grade 2 barely off the bridle by 19 lengths and 13, giving 3 lbs to the runner-up in a very good time considering the soft ground.
There is always a chance a horse will not run so well given different conditions. But sire Falco although himself by Pivotal won the French Guineas on good-firm (by far best run). Dam didn’t run but dam’s sire Linamix also winner of the same race in course record time (pretty firm). More’s to the point, P&C did not show the exaggerated rounded action so often associated with horses needing very soft conditions to be at their best. So the chance of him needing soft to produce his best is significantly reduced. Indeed, because there’s so much pace in the pedigree there’s a chance an increased test of speed is in his favour, although full brother Piccolino stayed 2m2f.
I can see the arguement of Hargam being better on good ground, by a known good ground sire in Sinndar and seemed to have a top-of-the-ground action. But he’s got to improve significantly to get near his stable companion who’s had less racing. Might be a concern if Henderson fails to find a Supreme Novices horse and (like Binocular) splits his good juveniles. But the shortest horse in the Supreme betting is Lami Serge, from the same owners as P&C’s.
No matter how Henderson currently rates the two horses at the moment, there’s quite a bit between them on form and trainers in the end usually favour the form book. Confident Nicky will know who is best come March, not that he’ll say so, because of who Hargam’s owner is. To do what Peace And Co did with so little experience – this is some juvenile. Provided a slightly high head carriage is not a sign of temperament, think he’s going to prove top class.
Value Is EverythingVery taking performance from a handsome individual, but I’d just hold fire to see him on faster ground. His trainer hinted afterwards that the ground might have been the reason he surprised even Henderson.
You must have seen a diferent interview to me, because the one I saw there was more of a glint in his eye when talking about P&C. Said something like "You asked me if Hargam was our best juvenile and I told you to wait until later in the afternoon and then I’ll tell you".
Value Is EverythingAfter watching
Peace and Co
hack up at Doncaster, the speed figure he achieved today is right up there with
Bonito Du Belais
@
116
.
Going allowances:
Doncaster-0.35s/f
(good to soft)
Cheltenham-0.39s/f
(good to soft)
Doncaster
13-Dec-14
11:55 Robbie 2m3f
105
12:30 Zeroeshadesofgrey 3m½f
114
01:05 Kashmir Peak 2m½f
72
01:40 Grandads Horse 3m
97
02:15 Peace And Co 2m½f
116
02:50 Virak 3m
138
03:25 Knight In Purple 2m½f
71
Cheltenham
13-Dec-14
12:15 Hargam 2m1f
103
12:50 Champagne West 2m5f
117
01:25 Sew On Target 2m½f
125
02:00 Niceonefrankie 2m5f
126
02:35 Blaklion 3m
102
03:10 The New One 2m1f
113
03:45 Rock On Ruby 2m4½f
78
Mike.
Cheers for this. All the more reason to get excited over Peace And Co. What did Kalkir record at Fairyhouse for comparison’s sake?
There is always a chance a horse will not run so well given different conditions. But sire Falco although himself by Pivotal won the French Guineas on good-firm (by far best run). Dam didn’t run but dam’s sire Linamix also winner of the same race in course record time (pretty firm). More’s to the point, P&C did not show the exaggerated rounded action so often associated with horses needing very soft conditions to be at their best. So the chance of him needing soft to produce his best is significantly reduced. Indeed, because there’s so much pace in the pedigree there’s a chance an increased test of speed is in his favour, although full brother Piccolino stayed 2m2f.
I can see the arguement of Hargam being better on good ground, by a known good ground sire in Sinndar and seemed to have a top-of-the-ground action.
You make a solid point about Peace And Co’s potential to handle firmer ground. I’ve padded out the case looking at the winning offspring of his dam (1/1), his granddam (2/1) and his granddam’s dams (2/2) – his cousins if you will.
léger : fast / hard
bon : good / firm
souple : dead
collant : slow
lourd : heavy / soft1/1
Piccolino (dual purpose)
Wins – (2) tres souple (1) bon
Form figures on bon – 17
Form figures on souple – 32/1
Peace Burg (3rd Falmouth – bon)
Wins – (2) bon (2) souple
Form figures on bon – 11575
Form figures on souple – 141603Peace Touch (dual purpose)
Wins – (2) très souple
Form figures on bon – 54
Form figures on souple – 7Silver Mountain (flat)
Wins – (2) bon (1) souple (1) lourd (1) unknown
Form figures on bon – 6-22-057349 – 0016701 – 07470
Form figures on souple -12-33-99Peace Dream (5th French 1000gns – bon)
Wins – (1) bon,souple (1) lourd (2) unknown
Form figures on bon – 5
Form figures on souple – 3Peace Fonic (dual purpose)
Wins – (1) souple
Form figures on bon – 673
Form figures on souple – 3-1362/2
Peace Of Oasis (flat)
Wins – (2) bon (1) souple
Form figures on bon – 116-5
Form figures on souple – 56-1Peace Mine (dual purpose)
Wins – (2) souple (1) bon
Form figures on bon – 12
Form figures on souple – 701F108Overall, this would indicate a preference for good to soft but a clear ability to handle good nonetheless.
But he’s got to improve significantly to get near his stable companion who’s had less racing. Might be a concern if Henderson fails to find a Supreme Novices horse and (like Binocular) splits his good juveniles. But the shortest horse in the Supreme betting is Lami Serge, from the same owners as P&C’s. No matter how Henderson currently rates the two horses at the moment, there’s quite a bit between them on form and trainers in the end usually favour the form book. Confident Nicky will know who is best come March, not that he’ll say so, because of who Hargam’s owner is. To do what Peace And Co did with so little experience – this is some juvenile. Provided a slightly high head carriage is not a sign of temperament, think he’s going to prove top class.
In 2008, Henderson didn’t have a runner in the Triumph whereas JP was running Franchoek. In that year’s Supreme, Henderson had three – Sentry Duty, Khyber Kim and Binocular. Also, I can’t see Baraka de Thaix or Unanimite occupying Munir’s Triumph dreams.
Top Notch on the other hand represents both Munir and Henderson and though he hasn’t drifted at all in the Triumph markets (which would bode well for his well being), he does seem to have been completely forgotten. Granted, he will do well to be as impressive as Peace And Co was yesterday but he’s also undefeated and did nothing wrong in his two wins.
Cheers for this. All the more reason to get excited over Peace And Co. What did Kalkir record at Fairyhouse for comparison’s sake?
Kalkir:
30Nov14 Fai 16Y 3yHG3 16K 1/15 (8L, Dai Bando10-9) 9/10F
91
04Apr14 Aut 15VSft 3yH 22K 4/15 (3L, Le Baron Noir10-3) 63/10
58
National Hunt Ratings:
https://web.cloud.virginmedia.com/?shar … a4db803fc9
Mike.
Cheers for this. All the more reason to get excited over Peace And Co. What did Kalkir record at Fairyhouse for comparison’s sake?
Kalkir:
30Nov14 Fai 16Y 3yHG3 16K 1/15 (8L, Dai Bando10-9) 9/10F
91
04Apr14 Aut 15VSft 3yH 22K 4/15 (3L, Le Baron Noir10-3) 63/10
58
National Hunt Ratings:
https://web.cloud.virginmedia.com/?shar … a4db803fc9
Mike.
This is so cool. Cheers Mike.
After the heady delights of yesterday’s double header, juvenile hurdling resumes to a more sedate pace tomorrow at Ffos Las with a maiden hurdle. It’s not the worst race we’ve seen this season as the field consists of two runners up and two winning newcomers from the flat.
Mercoeur
cost €35,000 at Arqana after reasonable, albeit far from top class form in France including when fifteen lengths behind Kalkir at Auteuil. Well backed when odds on favourite for his UK debut at Fontwell, and whilst he was probably the strongest horse in the race, his attitude and jumping cost him first place. The form of that run received a boost though as the winner, The Wallace Line, ran a brave race in defeat under a penalty at Sandown behind Baron Alco. Mercouer’s next run came in a handicap at Huntingdon and although it was another error strewn round and he finished with little conviction, he ran with credit to finish a close third off 111. That race hasn’t worked out particularly well though as it has produced zero placed horses from nine attempt. His latest start came in another handicap over two mile three at Market Rasen where he did too much in the lead and faded to finish fifth. The form of that run has been more encouraging as it has produced two winners and three placed horses, albeit at roughly the same level. He does have issues with jumping that need ironing out and his fighting spirit is practically non existent but he does have the best form of those with experience, he handles soft ground and the Greatrex yard is still in fantastic form with an across the card double on Saturday.
Zephyr
makes his first start since the beginning of October when he was last seen finishing a distance behind Mercoeur at Fontwell. He is a little better than that as he was placed twice beforehand including back at Fontwell where he had a real chance of winning until his hanging compromised his effort. Like Mercoeur, he does have some issues with his attitude and is probably less straightforward than the Greatrex charge but they are closely matched on his best form.
Koliakhova
was no superstar on the flat but she did take a fair claimer in July and after she was claimed by current connections for £12,000, she improved in her next two starts in handicap company and earned a rating of 78. She was completely overfaced in a listed race at Ascot on her last start and finished tailed off after sweating profusely. Her debut over hurdles at Warwick was no less discouraging as she was on her toes and although she jumped well, she went out like a light after racing prominently in the back straight. If there is something amiss then there is something amiss but she isn’t short on talent or jumping ability and if she return to her best then she’d have a chance of running well here.
Evan Williams has a solid history with juvenile hurdlers with Barizan being his strongest. He has sent out only the one runner so far and that was an outsider at Newton Abbot in August.
Cape Caster
, however, looks like a much stronger preposition and in terms of RPRs achieved on the flat in the UK, only All Set To Go, Dolce N Karama, Chatez and Stars Over The Sea can boast higher ratings. Fantastically consistent in all eleven starts and improving with almost every run on the flat for Ralph Beckett, he picked up a maiden at Windsor and a handicap at Salisbury along the way. After his Salisbury success in August, a career over hurdles was already being mooted and his subsequent placed efforts at Newmarket over a mile and a half and at Doncaster on soft ground did his jumping credentials no harm whatsoever. His sire, Cape Cross, has a strong record with Juvenile hurdlers (Cross Appeal, Ruacana), the high class chaser Jack The Giant features in his pedigree and the Evan Williams yard is coming back into form so on paper, Cape Caster has a lot going for him.
Eddiemaurice
is a stablemate to Koliakhova and just like the filly, he cost connections £12,000 after winning a claimer. He is the winning-most horse in the field with four victories under his belt though by that token, he’s also the most exposed having already seen the racecourse twenty three times. For all his runs though, he managed to maintain a fairly consistent profile on the flat for Richard Guest and even owns a victory in a maiden over John Quinn’s dual winner El Beau as a two year old. Eddiemaurice’s best form was at around a mile though and he did have a preference for firmer ground so he would have questions to answer as well as a bit of a class void to fill.
Southern Cross
was unraced as a two year old before running nine times as a three year old in low grade races for Hughie Morrison. Her best effort came when second in a poor seller at Leicester and whilst not disgraced at Wolverhampton on her first start for Andy Turnell, she will need to leave her form well behind to feature here.
Dream And Search
is a German bred colt who ran with promise as a two year old in northern maidens. However, he has been regressive as a three year old as his official rating plummeted from 75 to 55.
Arbitrary 1-2-3
1. Cape Caster
2. Mercoeur
3. KoliakhovaCape Caster 3/2
Jack The Giant
3rd Arkle Chase (G1), Cheltenham 2007 (5/3 Silver Groom)
Eddiemourice 3/2Sadlers Wings
4th Champion Hurdle (G1), Lepardstown 2006 (3/1 Atlaal, 4/5 Saint Lucy)
Dream And Search 4/1Danseur Etoile
1st Prix Finot (Listed), Auteuil 1989 (6/5 Blue Atlantic)
Mercouer 3/1Pashto
12th Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 1991
Southern Cross 5/2Nijmegen
1st Lanzarote Hurdle (122), Kempton 1994 (2/1 Creekside)
Koliakhova 5/2Reggae
2nd Prix Wild Monarch (Listed), Auteuil 1983
Zephyr 2/1Rapier
1st Novices’ Hurdle, Ayr 1998
Sires
Cape Caster – Cape Cross (7)
Zephyr – Shirocco (3)
Eddiemourice – Captain Rio (2)
Dream And Search – Raven’s Pass (2)
Mercouer – Archange d’Or
Southern Cross – Mount Nelson
Koliakhova – Literato
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