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Hello all.
Its over the next couple of weeks the 2009-10 jumps season really does gain significant momentum so much so, we will be seeing horses which will undoubtedly be featuring in many leading key Saturday races and the favourite festival races at Cheltenham and Aintree.
So often at the start of a new season, many punters steam into old favourite horses and systems from pervious seasons. For example, Nigel Twiston-Davis normally has an excellent start to the season – well has the last three, however the horses he is running maintained there form last year and not many have dropped in the weights. His bumper horses have been limited and fresh horses are looking to need the run. Why an earth did these horses go off favourite? It was based on previous statistics.
The point I am trying to make is punters need to access every race on its merits.
Today is a good card at Cheltenham.
Race1: IS STARLUCK really Value at 8/11 – Should Silk Fair be second Fav? I would leave this race a lone – remember, Starluck has always failed to get up the hill.
Race2: I think this is a really difficult race and quite a weak novice hurlde. Added to this, there are many horses from lesser profile stables. Let’s go through the key players:
BADDAM – Not for me, does not always travel and has an interesting attitude. Take On.
BILLIE MAGERN – Will get the trip, but seriously, is that form good enough to win a novice race like this at Cheltenham, also – are the Twiston-Davis horses running that well. At the prices – Not for me
PICTURE THIS: I do think this is interesting however will be short and Paul Nicholls runners normally need the run.
RISK: Not for me, overrated – this will finish 5th.
BENBANE HEAD – Forgot the run at Cartmel – was very ‘Novicy’ and never looks comfortable negotiating the bends. This horse has the best bumper form and receives weight to the leading players. [b:3kexeryk]At 12/1 – Maximum Each Way Bet for me.[/b:3kexeryk]I can’t see the others getting a look in.
Race3: COSSACK DANCER Each Way in a tough handicap Chase.
Race4: Just Amazing – would not want to take too short a price, but I think could be one to follow.I forgot to mention – let me know your thoughts to the Cheltenham races – do you agree with my selections?
On the whole looks pretty trappy.
Even if Cheltenham is not his ideal course Starluck should be too good in the first.
Interesting novice chase – have taken a chance on Martys Mission outstaying Kangaroo Court.
Will be watching out for Sleep Over (see Bloodstock) in the last – does not look a particularly strong Cheltenham bumper.
Agree with regards to Martys Mission. Might at least test Kangaroo Court. I took it earlier at 8s’.
Seemingly ludicrous ride on Martys Mission although the jockey looked as if he had no confidence in the horses jumping which begs the question as to why he was running at Cheltenham.
Strange run by Sleep Over in the last. Made a nice bit of headway on the bridle but appeared clueless under the slightest pressure and the jockey seemingly just gave up with about three furlongs left to travel. Not sure how doing nothing would have helped her education.
I was very taken with Starluck today. He looked to me to have filled out a bit over the summer and he’d be very interesting in races like the Fighting Fifth and the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton.
I was very taken with Starluck today. He looked to me to have filled out a bit over the summer and he’d be very interesting in races like the Fighting Fifth and the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton.
Trainer suggested he would be aimed at Kempton with one run beforehand. He clearly has plenty of talent but I have my doubts whether he would find much coming off the bridle in a Champion Hurdle.
I doubt he’d have the stamina to be in the Champion Hurdle shake up either but he could well land a Grade 1 around an easy two miles like Kempton.
I though yesterday’s racing at Cheltenham was good and from it we can take some pointers.
I think Benbane Head will go on and improve.
Just Amazing, would if have won if the others stayed up? Yes, I think it would have. I stated this yesterday and still maintain that this could be a really fast improving horse. He is still on the smallish size and has some filling out to do, but he has some engine. Just look out for this horse again as I think he may win more races and end up being a good novice this season. Anyone have any ideas about an ideal trip based on breeding?
Sleep Over in the bumper – agree with the previous comments. Lets see this horse when it’s given a little more time and maybe a flat track.
Fivaways – can’t wait to see this horse over hurdles, it think this could be a good novice……
Starluck – surely this is horse MUST have a flat track. Newcastle, Kempton – then put it away for Aintree? Thanks for the insight that the horse still needs to fill out – Arkle Horse for 2011?
Poquilin = just got home under a very good ride by Ruby, I don’t think this is a horse to follow this year. I think the number of races the horse can go after will be limited although did improve for the step up in trip, I don’t think it would want much further.
Cossack Dancer – getting down to a winning mark – look out for this horse maybe at the Paddy Power meeting. Jumped well yesterday.
Anything Else worth talking about?
Ok, so jumping today comes from Kempton Park, Fontwell Park and Ireland.
Kempton
Previously when Hpward Johnston has brough horses down from the North to the M25 tracks, the result has not always been great for the stable.You may recall the runners he took to Ascot last year and Old Raglan Road to Sandown.
However, I do think one of his is worthy of a bet today. Red Moloney – forget his Aintree run, I think at the prices and weights today he is worth a bet. Does anyone agree?
bergo has been ounted of the boards – would you really want to be on at 4/5? Not for me.
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