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For me Notable Speech is the obvious bet. So impressive in the Guineas. Would’ve been a lot closer in the Queen Anne with a clear run. Loves firm ground. But – and this is imo a big part of his chance – like many Appleby runners seems to be best at Newmarket. Just over the road from his stable. Trainer also in magnificent form this week. Yet to run at 6f but the way he’s run this season – taken a strong hold at a mile – may even be better at 6f. imo has a 32% fair 85/40 chance.
Many of the best sprinters have (if anything) even bigger question marks.
I’ve been a fan of Inisherin in the past. Ran well to win first time out. But didn’t look to be putting it all in at Ascot. Is he now best fresh? Once losing his form last year didn’t get it back (incl. in this race). For me he now has half a squiggle. Will first time cheek pieces work? Started ok at Ascot, just didn’t seem to like it once a rival came alongside. Is he best making the running / in the clear when not fresh? Jockey a negative too. Moore, then Buick, now Eaves. That said, has the best sprint form here and if getting any bigger I might have a saver on him.
Andrew Balding is still in good form. Flora Of Bermuda’s form might look consistent. But was 3 1/2 lengths behind the winner in the Jubilee… Only just beating the likes of Nighteyes and Iberian. ie Below her best on firmish ground. Today’s going might not be quite as hard, but it will be good-firm. She hasn’t run many times on the surface so it might just be a coincidence. But it might not. To date her very best has been on Good ground or softer.
Believing is one I’ve been following but missed her victory in UAE. Now she does go on a firm surface and the win in Dubai suggests is now fully effective at 6f. But what went wrong at Ascot? Possibly purely the draw. Or did she lead too soon? If running to form has a good chance.
Whistlejacket’s Commonwealth Cup run can be forgiven / ignored. Couldn’t get a run through. Reportedly banged his head on the gate when well beaten by Babouche penultimate start too. Won a sub-standard Group 1 Prix Morny by 3/4 length from Rashabar at two. But what price would Rashabar be here? Ended 2024 being 4 lengths adrift of Shadow Of Light in the Middle Park. What has Whistlejacket done to deserve being so short in the betting? To back him at the current price you’re effectively relying on the fact AOB has a habit of improving horses who (on form) look short in the betting for Group 1 races… But even that has seldom been the case with his 3yo+ sprinters.
The fact Godolphin have supplemented Notable Speech must be a negative for their Symbol Of Honour. However, a double figure price is surely an over-reaction? who’d looked an exciting prospect himself at Newbury on a firmish surface. Having quite a bit more in hand than the 1 3/4 length verdict over Ides Of March. Only scraped home last time out in the Group 2 Sandy Lane. But that came just a week after Newbury. Very possible he’s better than that and seems very genuine.
Trouble is my two main bets, the Appleby pair Notable Speech and Symbol Of Honour are both hold up horses. Unless Ides Of March acts as pacemaker for AOB’s Whistlejacket and Coolmore’s Believing; the two pace horses are drawn on opposite sides. Night Raider in 1 and Spy Chief 14. Might seem Night Raider is better on the All Weather. But it maybe he’s just found those races easier to dominate from the front. The way he looked to have the likes of Inisherin and Flora Of Bermuda in trouble in the Duke Of York… Going off far too fast for his own good – suggests there is a chance he can be effective here. Particularly with having the rail and no other prominent racers around him. Possible might get a fairly easy lead and if conserving enough energy… The current 39/1 is surely worth taking a chance.
The others seem outclassed. Although the other prominent racer Spy Chief is interesting. The Godolphin third string from the Gosden yard. His career is only 9 weeks old. Needs another big progression but is improving fast. Good second last time out in the Jersey, showing good speed so this drop back in trip should suit. One of the best bred horses in this field. By kingman out of Oaks second Shirrocco Star.
Value Is EverythingCouldn’t be touching notable speech anyway, horrible price, win or lose i dont see where on his formline/breeding/ run style he’d be suited to a 6f sprint, i wouldnt bet him at any price,
Big mojo e/w at 18/1 is the only play for me here, he ran like a lunatic at ascot for most of the race, got boxed in and look like he should have been tailed off, only to be closest at the line, looks a solid place bet to 4 places
If whistlejacket comes back out to 8/1+ ill back him but i can see him shortening
“i dont see where on his formline/breeding/ run style he’d be suited to a 6f sprint”,
Notable Speech’s 2000 Guineas winning form is head and shoulders above anything put up by any of these sprinters. Beating in second and third the next time out Irish Guineas one-two Rosallion (who went on to win the St James Palace) and Haatem (who went on to win the Jersey). Fourth was Ghostwriter, who was beaten the same distance as City Of Troy managed in (what is thought the 2024 horse of the year’s best performance) the International. Also beat the 2000 Guineas fifth Alyanaabi further than Rosallion managed in the St James’s Palace… And even the 2000 sixth Inisherin won the Commonweath Cup. The form of Notable Speech’s 2000 Guineas worked out very well even amongst milers let alone this (it seems) substandard lot of sprinters.
Even the Sussex Stakes victory or Breeders Cup 3rd is better form than his rivals here.
“Run style”. Last year Notable Speech settled fairly well which enabled him to stay an easy mile. This year he’s been keen on both starts. The horse’s temperament has changed. It’s a well known fact that when horses are keen it often means they’ll be more effective coming back in trip – because they’ll be going faster… It’s also well known that lethargic laid back horses stay further than pedigree suggests and keen horses don’t need as long a trip as their pedigree might suggest. On breeding he’s a miler. By Dubawi out of Swift Rose; who won at 6f as a 2 year old before finishing 2nd in the UAE Oaks over 9f. But she in turn had massive speed influences Invincible Spirit and Pivotal as her sire and dam’s sire. So there is speed on the dam’s side.
Charlie Appleby’s horses often show more speed than their breeding too. Indeed he’s done similar things with at least a couple of Dubawi colts. Naval Crown won the 6f Group 1 Jubilee after racing at a mile (4th in the Guineas)… And Appleby’s Space Blues won the Group 1 6 1/2 furlong Maurice De Gheest after starting out at 8 and even 10f.
Some horses don’t act at Ascot. Take his Ascot form and the Moulin soft ground run out of his formline and he’s also more consistent than many give him credit for.
There is obviously a chance Notable Speech won’t be effective at 6f. But if running to form he’ll win. It’s as simple as that… Don’t get me wrong. Even I believe he’s far more likely not to win than win. But it’s not as if he’s odds-on. imo Around a one in three chance which makes him a 32 or 33%, fair 85/40 or 2/1 chance. Now available @ 3/1.
“i wouldnt bet him at any price”. If that’s the case you’ll also be happy to lay him at any price.
I’ll have 100/1 please, ham.
Value Is EverythingNever said id lay him at any price Ginge, but i wouldnt back him at 100/1 either (win) i mean he could place? But in all likelyhood hes going to run on into 5th,
Of course his form is superior, over a mile… keen horses at a mile transferring to 6f isnt a recipe for success at this level and at the price he currently is, its insanity to be backing it imo
Giving 6lbs to the younger horses also
Its just negative after negative
Im stunned that buick never picked SOH,a costly error
I wouldnt be certain of any one horse winning
For all ive had a decent e/w on big mojo, but id be certain if this fav holds at 2/1-3/1 hes the worst priced fav so far the seasonThey may well be going to group on the Stand side rail now – after today’s results.
Notable Speech is drawn 4, so the right draw. But might be difficult for Buick to find a way through.Value Is EverythingSymbol Of Honour and Whistlejacket look like the best two, but if I had to go for one at a bigger price, it’d be Spy Chief.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
Don’t you love Group 1 sprints may as well be betting on a handicap but great for Richard Hughes and Neil Callan.
The more I know the less I understand.
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