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PS Henry wouldn’t run Twice Over in last years guineas because he wasn’t though to be a miler, very interesting that he as a 4 year old is running over mile now.
There are indications, both in his form and his ratings, that Twice Over could well be slightly better over the shorter distance, but nothing to suggest he’s up to beating Paco Boy.
Imo, he’s clear second best though, so could the be one for the forecast.Paco Boy does look the clear form pick. I think he gets a mile OK, he did at Sandown & in a very good race in France last year. Imo, he’s the most likely winner, but I wouldn’t want to back him at around 6/4.
The other proven G1 horse in the field is Twice Over. He may have done most of his racing over 10f, but he ran a very good time over 8f when beating Raven’s Pass in the Craven last year. He’s been a very consistant horse, & has always finished in the first three, regardless of grade, including G1’s (the one exception was when he got into loads of trouble in France).
Twice Over ran a strange sort of race at Newmarket last time, but I’m prepared to accept that may have been a prep for this. In his favour, he’s going to like this ground, he has inherent class, & "should" travel really well through this race, and also finish it strongly. Against him, he hasn’t got a sharp turn of foot, which may catch him out against a few of these faster horses.
In this one, think I’d much rather back Twice Over at around 9/1-10/1 each-way, to run into a place at least.
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Paco boy just keeps winning albeit mainly over shorter distances.
The ground and distance might be his undoing here but it will still take a very good horse to beat him.and those who ran behind him may not have enough class to do so.
Twice Over is a pet hate of mines and I’d hve him gelded and sent hurdling if I could. If he wins this I’ll be shocked and I might take a long holiday until the jumps start properly
A horse we never seen much of last season is Tariq. I have been waiting patiently for him to run this season and hopefully he could be back to his best.
We all here stories but I am assured Peter Chapple-Hyam reckoned Tariq wasn’t quite right last seaon last season.. He was really well fancied by the stable when he went to France after winning 3 good races in 2007 but things never went to plan. Frankie rode him and blamed the very soft ground but Peter Chapple-Hyam was of a different opinion. I’ve never seen the race so can’t comment on that.
He finished 3rd in this last year only a neck behind Cecil’s Pheonix Tower who ran DOM to 3/4 of a length later that season, which was decent form and he looked like he would soon be back to his winning ways.
As it turned out Tariq only had two more runs last year. He was very disappointing in the Queen Anne when fancied and gone completely by the time he took on Henry and Ravens in his only other run.
Peter Chapple-Hyam has had a couple of winners over the last few days and if he has this horse back to his very best he could go very close. Either way I doubt it will be too long before we see him back in the winners circle.
He’ll no doubt be held up by Jamie Spencer which could be a big plus in this ground if Paco Boy ends up not getting the trip.
I’ve taken a bit of a speculative gamble with him at 18/1 and 16/1 ew but covered my backside all the way with Paco Boy.
I’m pretty sure this was a Group 2 in the late 80’s when i began following the sport and I believe it should be again, take the favourite out and it is a very poor looking group 1.
Lockinge downgraded to Group 2 Newmarket’s 7f Challenge Stakes in Oct upgraded to Group 1, changes I would make.
About the race lay of Aqlaam.
PS Henry wouldn’t run Twice Over in last years guineas because he wasn’t though to be a miler, very interesting that he as a 4 year old is running over mile now.
totally agree spitfire this is a very poor group 1, virtual e/w and paco boy win.
Paco Boy has run three times at Newbury and won them all, albeit none over a mile.
I think the other jockeys will try to take the sting out of his finishing burst, but hopefully Richard Hughes puts him to sleep early on and arrives at the furlong pole with a double handful.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Paco Boy stays a mile and acts on soft. But will he stay a mile on soft? I make him a 7/4 shot.
Aqlaam has yet to run over a mile, is by Oasis Dream but out of a half sister to Persian Punch. Did win Jersey on firm but won despite the ground, injured (had been 3rd on only 2YO start on good-soft). For one to show that sought of form after just three runs suggests he could be Group 1 material. Worth taking a chance with at the price considering the stable’s form. Took 6.8/1 last night so how they can say he’s friendless when he’s shorter now? Strange.
When I worked out my 100% book yesterday, thought Virtual was going to be the bet. Have him at 8/1 and knew he was 14/1. But the price has gone now.
Dream Eater is thought best on a sound surface by connections.
Major Cadeaux is over priced, only that price because he’s stable comp of fav. Have him at 16/1 in my book and taken 28/1. Especially if setting a slow pace as he did in the Greenham.
Pressing could run well if it is a truly run race (not much pace that I can see). Goes well on soft and stays further, saved on him at 11/1.
Twice Over I thought looked a bit of a dog first time out. If over his corn problem has a chance. Wonder if he’ll be brought stand side to negate wandering tendancies.
Also saved on Alexandros, simply over priced at 24/1.
Atlantic Sport goes on the ground, should not be good enough but fairly priced at 66’s.
Tariq does not stay 1m on firm let alone soft, needs a crawl early. Winker won’t stay either.
Mark
Value Is Everythingtrying to work out how Virtual has drifted to 10/1 since 9am this morning
Never let the price worry you! I was at Nottingham a couple of weeks ago
and had taken 9/2 about "Stone of Scone" in the morning! i swear i have never seen a horse take such a walk in the market 5"s out to 12"s in 10mins before the off! The horse went to post fine and had 4 legs and a
jockey, entered the stalls fine and duly won like a horse that will win a
top handicap this year! And he won with 4 legs and the same jockey he started with! Incredible!- Total Posts 17716
The ground is no officially soft which allows the bookies to create total confusion. I think mineswill go on the ground despite what Frankie said in France and I’m backing him again at 25’s.
If it’s still raining by the time of the race it actually helps horses go through it and it shouldn’t be that holding.
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trying to work out how Virtual has drifted to 10/1 since 9am this morning
Never let the price worry you! I was at Nottingham a couple of weeks ago
and had taken 9/2 about "Stone of Scone" in the morning! i swear i have never seen a horse take such a walk in the market 5"s out to 12"s in 10mins before the off! The horse went to post fine and had 4 legs and a
jockey, entered the stalls fine and duly won like a horse that will win a
top handicap this year! And he won with 4 legs and the same jockey he started with! Incredible!I don’t understand Virtual rfiting either. Maybe the majority of punters aren’t backing as much as normal due to the weather. A weak market can have prices all over the place. Not quite as bad as yours was Aleron last night. John Quinn had kept him fit as a flea by running him on the flat. He’s quoted by one bookie at 9/2 after the withdrawels early on. He’s got better form than most in the race over fences. He opens at 7/1 and drifts to 12’s and hacks up.
I wouldn’t be worrying too much until the actual betting on the course pans out. Then your troubles will really start if he’s 16’s
if this is a poor group 1 like a few are suggesting then Twice Over looks a decent price imo, should be in the frame.
Can’t see past Paco Boy, he has a touch of class. Yes, the soft ground over a mile may test his stamina, but i think he will win.
Well done guys, those who backed Virtual.
Paco Boy doesn’t get the mile on soft ground, that is simple.
I respect Paco boy for being a Group 1 winner, but i think
Virtual
is
a horse on the upgrade, even though he is 6lb worse off with the favourite!
I see Paco hitting the front at the furlong pole and Virtual cutting him down
inside the last 50yds! He did not appeal on Wednesday night at 17 on Betfair because i felt the ground was against him! I took 10 last night after
the rain started and 8 again today! He"s a tough horse this!That was closer than i thought! Class will prevail eh Reet!
What a finish guys. Four in there with a chance in the final furlong.
I thought Virtual had been caught coming into the final furlong and Paco Boy looked to be travelling smoothly and just bombed out in the final furlong.
Twice Over set that race up perfectly for Virtual, Alexandros and even Atlantic Sport if he had the class to win a race like this. The one big question is – would Frankie have won if the whip didnt go?
Well done to everyone that had that little niggling doubt over Paco Boy despite massive market support. Every single racing paper had Paco Boy on its front page this morning. Listening to the press, he couldnt get beat.
Virtual did us good!
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