- This topic has 52 replies, 26 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 5 months ago by
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Posts
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my points ratings
137 paco boy
132 alexandros
131 twice over
130 virtual
122 dream eater
122 aqlaam
120 major cadeaux
113 pressing
106 atlantic sport
101 perfect stride
101 tariq
98 winker watsonwill back paco boy win
and alexandros ew- Total Posts 17716
I have a feeling that Dream Eater might just reverse Sandown placings with Paco Boy despite the latter not carrying a penalty, but
Aqlaam
looked a class act in winning the Jersey last season and his stable couldn’t be in better form.
Paco Boy gets the nod from me on this one too, but i think virtual will push him all the way this time.
He had a hat trick on soft ground last year and didnt get beat by much in the Bet 365 Mile last month. PB but not by muchWon loads following Paco Boy last year, but I am not convinced he will get the mile tomorrow at Newbury. I fancy a real upset in this race and will be laying the favorite.
Two horse race I reckon… Paco Boy (on his favourite track and the rain has arrived) and Aqlaam. The race fitness of the favourite should swing it.
The vibes, at the moment at least, don’t look positive for Aqlaam. He is a significant drifter on Betfair.
On this ground, stamina has to be a big concern for Paco Boy and Dream Eater. Twice Over has apparenty suffered a late set back with a corn on his foot.
Virtual has been the soft ground "mover" in the betting, but I think he has a good deal to find to win this, whatever the ground.
My idea of the best value is Pressing at 10-1+. He goes on the ground, stays further and has form good enough to expose any chinks in the favourite’s armour.
Alexandros certainly interests me here but on a mid-2008 piece of form Atlantic Sport is a lot closer to him that the prices suggest. Atlantic Sport finished within a neck of him at Glorious Goodwood and has long been touted by Mick Channon as a very classy prospect.
However, with that aside my selection isnt either of the above it’s John Gosden’s
Virtual
who has halved in price since the rain began to fall.
On the straight mile at Newmarket at the tail end of last year Virtual stormed past the likes of General Elliott, Alexandros and Bankable to win staying on. That was on good to soft and it is highly likely that this will be a similar going tomorrow.
Adding to this, on ground that he hates and at a course he shows a dislike for (0/2), Virtual managed to get within a length of Paco Boy who had virtually everything in his favour that day.
On a straight, soft mile at Newbury tomorrow it seems that it is Virtual this time round who will have everything in his favour.
Realistically this is a weak group 1 race and doesnt have the spark of Creachadoir v Cesare v Haradasun like last year. Paco Boy could go on to win this at a very backable price but the questions will stick around about his ability to stay this trip. With the current 4yo+ miler division in the UK it’s possible that we could be fooled into thinking he may get this trip right up to the date of the Breeders Cup Mile where he will be put in his place I have no doubt.
For me, despite the impressive form of Messers Hannon & Hughes, it’s Virtual all the way at 7/1
I respect Paco boy for being a Group 1 winner, but i think
Virtual
is
a horse on the upgrade, even though he is 6lb worse off with the favourite!
I see Paco hitting the front at the furlong pole and Virtual cutting him down
inside the last 50yds! He did not appeal on Wednesday night at 17 on Betfair because i felt the ground was against him! I took 10 last night after
the rain started and 8 again today! He"s a tough horse this!- Total Posts 17716
As the only genuine gp1 horse in the race, Paco Boy should win this comfortably. His Moulin form suggests he won’t have any problems with the trip, unless it turns to a bog. Of the rest, only Twice Over has any pretensions to being anything more than gp3 class, and I just can’t see them getting PB off the bridle.
Wouldn’t make him a proper miler though, and he’ll still struggle at the trip against proper Gd1 milers.These rumors of
Paco Boy
not staying are nonsence. People must be reading a very different form guide to me thats for sure. He’ll take some serious beating, he has so many of these beaten on various lines of form. The giving of 6lbs last time out to
Dream Eater
and
Virutal
when not fully wound up was mighty impressive. Having watched the video back again I can’t see Virtual reversing the form at all. He deserves to be short here, and I will be sniffing around for a price. Won both his starts in this country on ground with soft in the description, won 8/12 and in his two biggest defeats he enjoyed no sort of run and a big line can be put through them both. Serious Group 1 horse and I would expect him to win by 2/3 lengths+ tomorrow, he has class written all over him and will prove it through out the season.
TB, be very careful with that form of Virtual. He runs extremley poor at Sandown and on firm ground. He’s better than that showing
I think it could be between Twice Over, Virtual and Pressing, however at 10-1 I think I’ll go with pressing. Can see him being pricewised in the morning.
I say avoid Aqlaam like the plague. Would be very surprised if he can win on this ground.
I’m well aware of it Halfway, Virtual has been beaten on soft ground, when he was improving on softer ground he was not beating horses of this calibre. A handicap, a listed race in France beating only Lady Deauville and then his Newmarket win was not in this parish, Bankable had thrown in the towel by then and Alexandros isn’t in the same league as Paco Boy as proven on numerous occasions. I have earnt from Virtual in the past and think him useful but in Paco Boy I believe we have a very classy animal. I follow Pivotals on softer ground very closely, believe me, but in this instance I don’t think Vritual has the ability to turn the form around with Paco Boy. Soft ground, good ground Paco Boy is a better horse.
- Total Posts 17716
William Haggas seems to think he’ll enjoy the easier ground, Bulwark.
I’d like to see a good show from Atlantic Sport, he is one of my dark horses for the season and believe he is capable of a nice prize this season.
The two favourites have done their most successful bidding @ 7 furlong – I’ll approach with caution for both.
With Aqlaam it’s a "wait-and-see" situation. He might excel on good-to-soft and over a mile, but there’s nothing to staunchly prove as such.
I’ll go with
Major Cadeaux
but there’s not much between Virtual and Winker Watson.
I’m pretty sure this was a Group 2 in the late 80’s when i began following the sport and I believe it should be again, take the favourite out and it is a very poor looking group 1.
Lockinge downgraded to Group 2 Newmarket’s 7f Challenge Stakes in Oct upgraded to Group 1, changes I would make.
About the race lay of Aqlaam.
PS Henry wouldn’t run Twice Over in last years guineas because he wasn’t though to be a miler, very interesting that he as a 4 year old is running over mile now.
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