- This topic has 109 replies, 28 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 3 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Betting certainly suggests Gleneagles will be running. Time test and The Grey Gatsby seem weak on that news. Golden Horn is getting a more attractive price by the minute.
New Bay seems to be out of the picture and I am losing faith with the horse described as the new Frankel by one time expert.
Would make a great clash and I’ll be with Golden Horn all day.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
10 mm of rain at Deauville & thunderstorms predicted to arrive before the Marois so it looks like their hand is being forced into going to York (although any sniff of rain up there & I fully expect the ‘boys’ will withdraw him) – the other names are pretty much confirmed to run (baring accidents), so fingers crossed any and all rain stays away from York, so we can get the race the public want.
http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=10897524&category=0
Having taken a look at Gleneagles collateral form again (even on his preferred fast ground), I am even less taken in by the usual O’Brien rhetoric/spiel about his greatness. Only four horses from the 2000g have won a race since (Territories the only one at G1 level), the Irish 2000g form is even worse with only Convergence winning at G3 level and there have been no winners from the SJP!
He will have to do something rather spectacular at York in order for me to change my mind from seeing him as nothing more than a good horse (when the ground is fast). The problem for him is that fast ground at York will also suit GH, TT & TGG and they are already proven at the trip.
I expect to see GH having to do his own donkey work again but with York’s very long straight (longer even than Sandown’s), Dettori will have plenty of time to wind it up from far enough out so that GH’s stamina kicks in.
With gleneagles likely to run looks like the best race of the year. To me,if gleneagles truly stays the trip I can’t see him being beaten especially if he gets into that beautiful flowing running style. I suspect the grey gatsby will not be far away either and hopefully we could have four horses in with a shout in the last furlong. Declaration of wars win was one of my favs of all time and so hoping this race lives up to its billing.
Paddy Power are massive odds on several runners here. It seems they are taking a view on a good few not lining up next week.
The Grey Gatsby is an incredible 12/1 with them, which looks worrying. Time Test is 6/1, which would be giving palpitations to his fans. Free Eagle and Intillaq are both 20/1, which suggests they are perhaps doubtful to line up.
Hopefully Golden Horn will keep drifting and become a great bet in hindsight. I can’t get away from the impression that the St James Palace stakes wasn’t much of a race with Consort beaten in listed company since and Latharnach now being aimed at Listed company as Godolphin scale down their ambitions for him.
I met former Stranglers member Hugh Cornwell the other day and asked him about the Juddmonte, he said to me:-
Golden Horn, go on my son.
Lays me down, with my mind he runs.
Throughout the night.
No need for fright.
Never a frown, with Golden Horn.I assume he’s confident then.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Funny that Steve how you bumped into the stranglers member.
I met a former Defenestration band member Nick Green and asked him about the Juddmonte.
He said that he backed Gleaneagles for the Sussex and that he had backed Golden Horn for the King George.
He also said if he were to bump into O’Brien or Gosden in a nice quiet bar that he would ask them to pick a window before he throws them out of it.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Juddmonte is looking to get Smullen for Time Test as Free Eagle’s conections say he is likely to go to the Irish Champion as his prep for his main objective, the Arc.
I am getting the distinct impression that he is a very difficult and fragile horse to train and given that he only made it to a racecourse twice in each of the last two seasons they may be tempting fate a bit by trying to get three runs into him this season.
Gleneagles fans also beware, even though York is currently good to firm at the moment, the latest forecast is for them to receive heavy rain from Thursday evening into Friday, although the long range forecast indicates settled weather with sunshine in 17C – 19C range. Wonder if this will prompt O’Brien to make another early call on withdrawing him like he did at Goodwood?
Gosden has supplemented Dick Doughtywylie at a cost of £75k to ensure that GH doesn’t have do make his own running whilst Free Eagle has not been declared as expected.
Next week is looking pretty good, it’s the next 12 hours that could be the problem! Hopefully it will dry up fast over the weekend.
Racing UK quote Gosden as saying he will run GH on soft if that’s what it ends up as, I suppose he doesn’t want to waste the pacemaker’s entry fee.
Gosden is deploying a pacemaker here, I mooted the idea for the Eclispe.
A tactic perhaps to stretch Gleaneagles as O’Brien see’s him as a pure miler, a bit of rain softened ground thrown in and Gleaneagles will need wings.Blackbeard to conquer the World
If the official going report doesn’t mention the word firm in it, I don’t think Gleneagles will run. This is a much tougher race than the Sussex in which they withdrew him before it dried out back to proper good ground (based on race times), which they then still deemed not to be suitable.
However, as of 8:35am York Racecourse website now lists the going as good/good to firm in places (the racecourse map indicates the good to firm places are from 7F to 5F before the home straight and the relatively new section of the course after the winning post that runs round to join up to the main course). Heavy localised rain is also forecast for the area today but dry after that.
Depending on what happens today weather wise, will O’Brien and the boys make an early decision a la Goodwood or (if the predicted rain arrives) wait to see if the ground then dries out and decide on the morning of the race?
Gleneagles will run I’m sure. It looks like a very hot race but it’s hard to see past the favourite. Sometimes you just have to do the obvious.
Although he might get into trouble at some point in-running I would expect Golden Horn to grind down Gleneagles in the final furlong. And he has already won over course and distance this season.
This is a tough race though so I’d be wary of risking too many coppers. I recall Sea the stars probably got the fright of his season when Mastercraftsman briefly had him in trouble down the home straight a few years back. I can see history repeating itself with Gleneagles looking the superior horse in running but Golden Horn ultimately prevailing. Or perhaps Gleneagles will just win, who knows, it’s hard to be that confident.
Time Test is interesting as well, brilliant at Royal Ascot and did a very good speed figure there. Whether he’ll have the battle hardiness of Gleneagles/Golden Horn is the big question mark. Strikes me as being slightly more fragile type than the front two in the betting.
I can’t go against GH here, I don’t believe in the Gleneagles hype machine as his collateral form is having big holes knocked in it at almost every turn. O’Brien has continually said that he is an out and out miler and I believe had ‘the boys’ not stepped in, O’Brien wouldn’t have had any part of this race.
As admirably tough and consistant as TGG is, he was simply outstayed at Sandown even when all the cards were stacked in his favour – I can’t see him reversing the places as this time the race will be run to suit GH instead, a place is the best he can hope for.
For me Gosden has covered his bases by including a high class pacemaker who not only leads GH at home but was also good enough to lead the likes of Kingman & The Fugue. He will ensure a good strong pace and I think GH will kick early up the straight to ensure there is no hiding place for the others – don’t forget that the race is run over 10.5F.
If GH is to be beaten, the most likely candidate for me is Time Test – he is the unknown variable that has to make the big jump up in grade but being an unexposed 3 yr old he may well still have that improvement in him to do so, I also think the race conditions will suit him as well.
I just hope that they all run their race and there is no hard luck stories.
The ground is now Good at York, so perhaps the clash is off the agenda now?
Although forecast for dry tomorrow there may be further showers tonight and that will surely play to Golden Horn and his stamina.
I was looking at the weights and wondering if Joseph O’Brien can actually do 8st 12lb?
It may be a moot point if the rain gets in a bit more, they will surely pull Gleneagles.
It’s still Golden Horn from The Grey Gatsby here in my mind. I think the Grey is being dismissed out of hand because Golden Horn beat him last time. 12/1 each-way looked solid for Kevin Ryan’s horse.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
At 4pm the assistant clerk of the course said it was still raining and a look at the weather satellite over York racecourse just now confirms that – I expect it will be genuinely good racing ground for tomorrow.
Unfortunately, we all know that good ground will not guick enough for Gleneagles so don’t be too surprised when he gets withdrawn at some point tomorrow…no doubt much to Aiden’s relief.
In my mind, I have GH beating Time Test with the weight for age concession relegating TGG to 3rd place.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.