August 20, 2007 at 23:29 #4902carvillshillParticipant
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Someone was moaning recently that we seem to have forgotten the art of discussing great races here- they may be right….
This promises to be a fascinating contest between the Derby, Eclipse and King George winners.
Authorised looked one of the better recent Derby winners but failed to match that form dropped back in trip in the Eclipse. I feel he’s a 12 furlong horse and that, along with the awful record of 3 year olds in this race makes him one to oppose.
Notnowcato is an admirable winner of 3 Group Ones, and always runs well. This is his trip, he won this last year and he holds 2 decisions over Dylan Thomas already. He won’t mind any further softening of the ground unlike DT. To my mind he is just short of top class however but he is respected.
My idea of the winner though and a value bet at anything over 2/1 on good ground is Dylan Thomas. Brilliant in the King George he is obviously more vulnerable at this trip but the presence of a pacemaker will help and in my book a repeat of his last 10f run behind Manduro would be good enough. Questioning of his resolution by some is nonsense- with a decent pace on good ground here he’ll be too good.
Asiatic Boy ran a great first race in the Sussex behind Ramonti despite being too keen early on.If he could reproduce his dirt form he’d be right in this, but I’m betting he won’t.August 20, 2007 at 23:40 #111885Jim JTSMember
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In the Juddmonte International I’m sticking with Authorized and Frankie to get it right this time ahead of Dylan Thomas and Notnowcato in that order.
In the Great Voltigeur I can’t believe how big a price Boscobel is at around the 8/1 mark in places, he’s already beaten half of the field and the word is that he’s bouncing at home, at odds like that I’m on whatever the result. He’s more closer to the 3/1 mark in my book. His main threats could be stable companion Hearthstead Maison and Mahler.
Great racing ahead at York, be lucky!August 20, 2007 at 23:46 #111886CavParticipant
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The race of the summer, hope Notnow can do it and finally get the credit he fully deserves.August 21, 2007 at 08:13 #111906davidjohnsonMember
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Does anyone share my reservations about Dylan Thomas’s temperament back against top class opposition. He looked like going past Notnowcato at the Curragh after getting upsides but failed to do so, he threatened to go past Manduro at Ascot but didn’t and then hung in behind that rival and even in the King George ge dived right for the rail when going to the front. That given and the possibility of the ground being just a touch softer than ideal means I’m going to be against him today.
Notnowcato is tempting at around 4/1 but in truth I’m convinced Authorized is a superior horse, and with this race likely to unfold more straightforward fashion I’ll take him to emerge on top.
Septimus looks the banker of the day in the Lonsdale. His Dante/Coronation Cup form is superior to what any of his rivals have achieved. Even Distinction at his best probably hasn’t run to the same level of form. Sergeant Cecil should get back to form back under more suitable conditions but a penalty looks sure to prove his undoing againt a horse which has a pretty similar profile to Yeats and looks an improver at this trip never mind just a stayer.
Regarding the Voltigeur, if Boscobel is 3’s on your tissue Jim, what price Lucarno? He’s weighted to beat him on King Edward form with a turnaround in the weights and also looks a stronger stayer at the trip. Think his form is also more solid with the Derby run as well as the Princess of Wales’s run also working out in adequate fashion. Why Yellowstone is half his price depsite being held the 2 occasions they’ve met is baffling. I’, still of the opinion he’s somewhat flattered by his Eclipse run.
In the handicaps Mull of Dubai looks a good bet to continue his progression. A 5lb rise looks to underestimate what he achieved when pulling miles clear with Group Captain at Ascot last time and he’d probably have done better still if Egan had held on to him a bit longer. Chief danger looks likelu to be Greek Envoy who should be suited by the step up to 12f but I’m a little concerned he might want it a bit softer.
The Acomb looks to hard but I like Oasis Wind and Dubai Dynamo in the nursery.Dubai Dynamo didn;t see 7f out at Salisbury last time but it was still an improvement in his form. Bred for speed by Kyllachy out of a 5f winner I can see him building on that back in trip and he looks well treated off the same mark. Paul Cole’s horse looked pattern class at Leicester and he’s won this race before.
That race, like the 5f sprint handicap could suit those drawn middle to high I think as the stalls are being put on the stand side to take advantage of the railed off fresh ground that was saved at the last meeting. Particulalry so in the last race as there seems to be plenty of high pace, particularly Corridor Creeper, Cape Royal and Merlins Dancer.The 2 I can see it being set up for are Tabaret, a listed winner at this meeting as a 2yo that did really well against a strong draw/track bias at Haydock last time and Efistorm, who looks better than ever this year since joining Conor Dore. He looked in really good nick at Beverley last time in just failing to reel in the well-ridden Melalchrist who himself has thrived of late since fitted with blinkers.August 21, 2007 at 09:13 #111916DroneParticipant
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I don’t bet on the Flat nor pretend to be up to speed with Flat form but having had a cursory glance at the International I reckon Dylan Thomas at 2/1 makes the market for Authorized at 2/1. I would price them more like 5/2 and 13/8 respectively.
Dettori gave Authorized a woeful ride at Sandown and imo the horse did very well to finish where he did. 2/1 (33% chance) to forgive that run and frank what appeared to be a fine performance at Epsom would do me.
Is Notnowcato’s 1.5 length beating of Authorized utilising what appeared to be a marked going bias at Sandown likely to be confirmed today? Perhaps Moore will try it again by coming stands’ side on the fresh strip of ground that was dolled off for the last meeting, or perhaps they all will
Should be an interesting spectacle
I would be surprised if Authorized is allowed to go off at 2/1 this aftAugust 21, 2007 at 09:32 #111919clivexMember
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There could be something in DJ’s point about DT’s resolution and if Authorized goes on (as he must) then at this course in particular, it could be difficult to get past him. Dettori must use his usually excellent judge of pace this time (and of course, he rides York so well).
My concern is that Auth really does need 12f. A race to watch
Disagree about Boscobel though. Stable seem to be very upbeat about him and again, the way York is, course will suit. A 4lb penalty is not going to put me off at that price.August 21, 2007 at 09:39 #111921HimselfParticipant
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I’m siding with Authorized. I don’t believe the horse gave his true running in the Eclipse, and as suggested elsewhere, Frankie did not, I believe, give the horse one of his better rides. Dylan Thomas and Notnowcato will both prove tough nuts to crack, but I still have the image of Authorized’s Dante success imprinted on my mind – and hopefully he will show the same brilliance he did that day at York.
Gambling Only Pays When You're WinningAugust 21, 2007 at 10:57 #111925Pegwell BayMember
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Was thinking the same about Dylan Thomas DJ, having just finished studying the race.
I noticed on his last 3 runs that he’s been lugging/hanging in to the right, surely that is going to be even more of a problem on this left-handed track. I can see him hanging right across the track once he comes under pressure against this better class of opposition compared to last time – unless they come stand side of course.
Small win bet on Authorized for me, to avenge his defeat by Notnowcato last time (a race in which everything seemed to go against him, yet he still managed to beat GW in ‘their’ race).August 21, 2007 at 13:04 #111947Gareth FlynnParticipant
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I can see him hanging right across the track once he comes under pressure against this better class of opposition compared to last time – unless they come stand side of course.
Your caveat may come true – the clerk of the course reckons that the stands side will be the place to be as it’s fresh ground that wasn’t used at their last meeting.August 21, 2007 at 13:23 #111952Black Sam BellamyMember
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Was an explanation ever given for Dylan Thomas’ below par run in last season’s Juddmonte ? C&D form is a major factor in my punting so I just can’t fancy him.August 21, 2007 at 14:28 #111960Gareth FlynnParticipant
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Was an explanation ever given for Dylan Thomas’ below par run in last season’s Juddmonte ? C&D form is a major factor in my punting so I just can’t fancy him.
He pulled his chance away; ground wouldn’t have helped him either but the former was the big issue IMO.August 21, 2007 at 14:44 #111963FlashMember
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I’m surprised Authorized is favourite. On ten furlong ratings he’s got half a stone to find with Dylan Thomas.
I would expect Dettori to give Authorized a different ride to what he did at Sandown, if he doesn’t he’s a muppet.
I expect Duke Of Marmalade to run well he’s been waiting for ten furlongs. Notnowcato has to be respected but if Dylan Thomas runs up to "Manduro form" he will win.August 21, 2007 at 15:14 #111966FlashMember
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Well done Authorized how fantastic to see the Derby winner prove himself to be a top class racehorse.
Truely run race and this time Dettori rode him properly according to the pace of the race. Authorized was always travelling well and he still looks like he really needs a mile and a half which we know any way.
The big three were first, second and third which makes the form look solid.
Thats what racing is about the Derby winner taking on the older horses, just a shame he didn’t run in the King George. However, I’m happy that we’ve actually officially got a proper, top class Derby winner.August 21, 2007 at 15:15 #111967carvillshillParticipant
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Great tipping DJ! Respect!August 21, 2007 at 15:22 #111968clivexMember
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Its building up to be an exciting Arc…
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