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First time poster here wanting to say thankyou for a great forum, with some fantastically knowledgeable people adding their opinions which I always take into consideration.
The biggest bet ive had in my life is already on Await The Dawn at 11/10 usually I win 5 or 6 races on the bounce then go for a big bet and get beat (never can discipline myself to place level stakes) but hopefully this time around will pull it off
My concern is not JOB as this young lad has probably ridden since he came out of pampers but the ground for ATD, I know he has won on soft but connections say " hes a daisy cutter " big horse and so forth. Looks like its going to be very wet around York up until the race.AtD is a four year old and needs this Group One over a mile and two for retiring.SYT will win the Irish Champion Stakes.
JP O’Brien rode the winner of the Flat v NH Jockeys race at Roscommon on Monday evening. 20/1 shot, big field, ride of the valkyries kind of race. Nice win.
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This looks one of those archetypal "potential v proven form" races to me.
Await The Dawn is potentially top class, but does beating listed-calibre opposition in his last two runs really entitle him to be odds-on against two proven Group One performers? Judging by the way it took him all day to get past the plucky but limited Harris Tweed in the Hardwicke, the drop to a mile and a quarter won’t be in his favour; he may well win, but surely represents no value at the current odds- and that’s without even considering his inexperienced jockey.
Twice Over has been very hit and miss over the last couple of years- at his best, he’d take all the beating but poor efforts in the Irish Champion, Dubai World Cup and Prince Of Wales’s Stakes temper enthusiasm somewhat. Midday is more reliable but was inexplicably below form two runs ago; she’s also subject to more Queally incompetence, as she was in the Coronation Cup.
Roderic O’Connor looks overpriced- he isn’t being used as a pacemaker (one would assume that Windsor Castle is earmarked for that particular duty) and on his best form he’s not far short of the best of these. It’s a shame that there are only two places on offer but if Twice Over throws in a stinker and either, or both, of O’Brien and Queally get it wrong, then the Ballydoyle second string could well benefit.
First time poster here wanting to say thankyou for a great forum, with some fantastically knowledgeable people adding their opinions which I always take into consideration.
The biggest bet ive had in my life is already on Await The Dawn at 11/10 usually I win 5 or 6 races on the bounce then go for a big bet and get beat (never can discipline myself to place level stakes) but hopefully this time around will pull it off
My concern is not JOB as this young lad has probably ridden since he came out of pampers but the ground for ATD, I know he has won on soft but connections say " hes a daisy cutter " big horse and so forth. Looks like its going to be very wet around York up until the race.Always good to have new members, welcome aboard Paul.
The "daisy cutting" would be an issue if not already proven on the ground. I believe soft is a positive for Await The Dawn. He proved it in the Hardwicke and (being one who stays 12 furlongs well) more of an emphasis on stamina is in his favour. Form of that race boosted by the second and third finishing first two in the Glorious Stakes.
Where as Midday won her first Nassau on good-soft, but ran poorly in Ireland on a soft surface. It’s possible she let Misty For Me go too far in front in a slowly run contest, but she struggled to quicken on it. Her one massive disappointment came on heavy ground in the Yorkshire Oaks.
Twice Over won the Champion Stakes on good-soft, but has only run once on soft. A fair 3rd in the Lockinge at possibly an inadequate trip. So unproven on it. Twice Over has a turn of foot at 10 furlongs and doubtful he’d be suited by an increased test of stamina soft conditions bring.
Roderic O’Connor’s form is best on rain softened ground. Irish 2000 Guineas officially good-firm, other times on the day suggest that is right, but there was heavy rain on the day and it seemed to ride like soft ground. With most horses finding it difficult to quicken. Although argueabley bred to get 10 furlongs is yet to produce his top form at further than a mile. Any more emphasis on stamina may not be to his advantage, although I agree with those who believe 25/1 is value.
So the evidence in my opinion points to Await The Dawn having a greater chance on soft ground than on a firm surface. But that won’t stop Aidan using it as an excuse if he’s beaten.
Value Is EverythingSadly I think bookmakers have got this race just about right.
My 100% book for good-soft soft in places:
52.5% 20/21 Await The Dawn, 26.5% 11/4 Midday, 15% 11/2 Twice Over, 5.75% 16/1 Roderic O’Connor, 0.2% 500/1 Zafisio, 0.05% 2000/1 Windsor Place.On Good ground it would be:
42% 11/8 Await The Dawn, 34.5% 15/8 Midday, 20.5% 4/1 Twice Over, 3% 33/1 Roderic O’connor, 0.2% 500/1 Zafisio, 0.05% 2000/1 Windsor Place.Value Is EverythingCould some one tell me more about the lad riding Twice Over.He is not familiar to me.
Ian Mongan is Henry’s number 2 Andy – a very capable jockey and I am glad he is getting his chance.
I think the fav is way too short for this and took him on last week with the Cecil pair. If you watch the Hardwicke the LAST thing you should be thinking is "this horse could benefit from a shorter trip". He has beaten very little in his last two starts and has it to prove at this level. I DO think he is unexposed and could be very good but he will have to be to win tomorrow against PROVEN Group 1 winners.
As far as I can see the ground is still Good, Good to Soft in places which will be no problem for either Midday or TO. Midday is ultra consistent and never finishes out of the first 2. What would concern me is if the ground were sticky rather than soft. I believe those were the conditions that twice found her out in Ireland (it was the Irish Oaks not the Yorkshire in which she disappointed Ginge).
Twice Over bounced back last time and was too big at 8’s last week. He still works like a good horse and I have always been fascinated to see who would win out of a clash with him and Midday – we’ll get our answer tomorrow. I am hoping for 1-2.
I wouldnt back ROC. I have seen no evidence that he has improved from 2 to 3. The Irish Guineas was a very poor race and he had the run of it from the front beating Dubawi Gold who was extremely flattered to finish so close to the wonderhorse in the English version. The close up 3rd in the Irish was Oracle FFS! ROC’s other races this season have been hugely disappointing and I cant have him finishing in the first 3.
So Midday or Twice Over for me and I honestly don’t mind which one it is.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Good summary Jon, pretty much agree with what you said, ATD is odds on based on potential in the main, beat a good solid horse in Harris Tweed at Ascot but Midday and TO are obviously of much higher calibre.
Struggling to pick which of Henry’s pair to back (like you say a 1-2 would be nice) so at the odds i’ll be laying ATD.
Twice Over – proven class, tough, going to be hard to keep him out of the first two.
Anyone else up for a bit of each-way thievery?
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
"Jonibake" wrote: I think the fav is way too short for this and took him on last week with the Cecil pair. If you watch the Hardwicke the LAST thing you should be thinking is "this horse could benefit from a shorter trip".
Incidentally, it was one of the first things I thought!
That run reminded me a lot of Cape Blanco in the Irish Derby, needed a lot of pushing to get the job done and looked like stamina won the day but the reality was that his class got him through over a trip that stretched him. The same could well be the case with Await The Dawn. Perhaps also he was unable to quicken as well as he has in the past due to the ground. That’s not saying soft ground won’t benefit him tomorrow, because even though he may be better on a sounder surface, he should handle it better than some of his rivals.
I’m holding out for evens
Twice Over – proven class, tough, going to be hard to keep him out of the first two.
Anyone else up for a bit of each-way thievery?
Completely agree.
GingerTipster…..I like your posts and agree with most of what you’ve said on this thread! But…
….There’s no way Await The Dawn has a better chance on soft ground as indicated by your last post on page 2 of this thread. This is a horse by Giant’s Causeway with a high and straight knee action and who has run up some very decent times in Group 2s and Group 3s. At Royal Ascot, he won in spite of the ground – the faster the ground, the better for Await The Dawn. No doubt about that.
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Andyod – you really make me laugh! If anyone wants to go back to page 7 of the King George thread, they will see that after the jockey had been announced, Andyod acknowledges that SNA is drifting. Why then, if you had such a problem with the jockey did you not go and lay off on your SNA bet (placed before riding arrangements were made public) for a tidy little profit?
Blaming everything but your own punting inadequacies is the lowest form of gambler.
You waited until SNA was defeated and instead of admitting you got it wrong, blamed the jockey, the trainer, the race, everyone but yourself!!
Already on this thread, you have put yourself in a position to the exact same thing post-Juddmonte.
What exactly would you like to know about Ian Mongan? Like Joseph O’Brien, he is a very capable horseman but I suspect you are more interested in knowing if you can blame him for your losing Twice Over bet!!!
For what it’s worth, I am quite confident Await The Dawn will win today (well as confident as you can be in any event where there are so many variables, i.e. a horse race).
Apologies Ginger Tipster…maybe your post was implying that ATD would handle the surface better than his rivals? If so, quite possibly true.
Midday likes to hear her feet and Twice Over? I’m not sure if he’s that strong on soft ground. Anyway, my point about ATD still stands – he is far better the harder the ground.
SYT,
It is indeed the case that Await The Dawn is "proven" on soft ground where as Midday and Twice Over aren’t. (That’s soft as in soft or heavy).
Await The Dawn may have the daisy-cutting action usually associated with a liking for firm ground. But I’ve known many horses who’s actual going requirements go against their action. If Await The Dawn had not run on the surface, then I’d pay particular attention to the action, but he’s already proven on the surface.
You could say both of Sir Henry’s horses are proven on good-soft, but no softer. Therefore on soft or heavy Await The Dawn’s percentage chance goes up and the other two go down. Last time out on soft ground was (to this point) Await The Dawn’s best performance, ie his best so far is on soft. That is not to say it was anything to do with the ground and is probably equally effective on a sound surface.
As said soft also puts a greater emphasis on stamina which again is in favour of Await The Dawn when racing at 10f (best so far at 12f on soft). There’d be a slight doubt against him having enough pace if today’s race were on a firm surface. Midday stays 12f too, but has proven speed at the top level at 10f on a firm surface and has a turn of foot. Twice Over has (although slightly inferior) form at a mile and probably does not have enough stamina for a mile and a half. So a severe test of stamina (which soft/heavy would bring) at 10f would disadvantage his chance too. So not only is it a matter of proven soft ground form, it’s also about stamina and speed concerns which alter percentage chances of all horses here.
However, judging by the going report it is not going to be soft/heavy.
I’m probably going to wait until the first race times are known and how the Knavesmire is riding to bet. Going has a massive say on who is the value bet here.
Value Is Everything
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