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Time of the first race suggests it’s genuinely good ground.
On Good ground it would be:
42% 11/8 Await The Dawn, 34.5% 15/8 Midday, 20.5% 4/1 Twice Over, 3% 33/1 Roderic O’connor, 0.2% 500/1 Zafisio, 0.05% 2000/1 Windsor Place.Backed Midday 2.45/1 with a saver on Twice Over 5.4/1
Value Is EverythingI have backed Midday in her previous three races, but I am opposing her today.
She has yet to defeat the colts and I take the view that this trend will continue, especially as she is up against two very able male adversaries in her stablemate, Twice Over, and the one I fancy; Aidan O’Brien’s still improving colt, Await The Dawn.
Confident selection: Await The Dawn.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Dear So You Think,I am not a gambler.In fact the bet was my one and only this year.However what happened was that I had a double with Fame and Glory for the Gold Cup and St. N. Abbey in the King George. Both were sevens at the time of the bet.I had $350 at sevens going on S.N.A. I understood that Aidan would use "the best available" as he said he would be doing.He lied about that.I don’t bet enough to lay off as you said since I have not had a bet in many many years.I still believe that using an apprentice without the benefit of the allowance is bad racing behavior for anyone;when he is the trainer’s son it is doubly bad decision making.However no one seems to agree on that point on the forum so I will drop it.If I caused you to laugh good for you.
I do agree that it is foolish to put up an apprentice unable to claim in such an important race. Master O’Brien in this race did not keep close enough to his pacemaker, did not go quick enough to draw the sting out of Sir Henry’s runners. Poor judgement of pace. Not that Heffernen did any better on Seville. The one poor run of his life before today when crowded/held up in the Derby. Not that it made much difference, with an impressive winner. Queally also not at his best, Midday (known to idle) should’ve been kept close to the others. Had his whip in the wrong hand to do that; hanging left away from the others and idling.
Andyod,
If your bet was struck before the Irish 2000 Guineas, then fine, believe what AOB says. After Master OB rode Roderic in that race, the "using the best jockey available" ought to be taken with a pinch of salt.Nobody likes to see another punter lose his money mate, keep an open mind, learn from it and try to forget the hurt.
I believe Queally has cost me "twice over" this season (Coronation Cup and International). Will do my best to forgive and forget. Everyone makes mistakes.
Value Is EverythingNot because Joseph O’Brien rode Await The Dawn ( and lost me money
) but I happen to agree with andyod about using inexperienced jockeys when contesting Group races.There is immediately an in built extra risk factor involved and why such a trainer as Aidan O’Brien would use his young son instead of experienced and better qualified jockeys in such contests is lost on me. Surely the lad has to earn his spurs, as it were.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Not sure Tom Queally would have been given the choice what to ride, MV,
and as Twice Over isn’t seen as a stud prospect
, may just be in to ensure an honest pace for Midday.
Can’t see Coolmore hanging about either, as it took all day for Await The Dawn to get on top at Ascot, all of which points to the Abdullah mare being the one to benefit.Good point about who chose the jockeys for each horse.
In relation to Twice Over not being much of a stud prospect. Twice Over has beaten 32 horses who had previously won at Group 1 level. Nine of those 32 had won Group 1 races in the USA. Juddmonte have eight stallions at their UK stud but only two (First Defence and Mizzen Mast) in the USA. Twice Over is a big, strong, healthy, ten furlong horse who was fast enough to beat Raven’s Pass over a mile. With Raven’s Pass being a Breeders Cup Classic winner, and Twice Over finishing third to Zenyatta in the 2009 race, Juddmonte will not lack for marketing material if they wanted to stand him in the USA, or sell him to another stud in the USA. His size, toughness, running style and talent would make him a good possibility for lots of USA breeders. I know he has never run on dirt, but nor did lots of other UK stallions who were a success in the states in the past. Plus there are quite a few races in the USA now on turf and synthetic surfaces, with the likelihood of more in the future.
As I said in my previous post on this thread, I like the horse so did not bet on him. I am pleased for the horse, his owner, trainer, jockey and stable staff. They all did a great job today.
To others posting about the ride on the favourite: I did not see anything in the way that Joseph O’Brien rode Await The Dawn that caused him to lose the race. A top class jockey would have made no difference, just like a top class jockey would have made no difference to Twice Over winning.
To others posting about the ride on the favourite: I did not see anything in the way that Joseph O’Brien rode Await The Dawn that caused him to lose the race. A top class jockey would have made no difference, just like a top class jockey would have made no difference to Twice Over winning.
MV,
It may well be Await The Dawn would not have won whatever Josaph did today. But he did notmaximise
his chance. Await The Dawn stays 12 furlongs on soft ground. Stamina was key to Await The Dawn’s chance here. The other two principles both predominately 10 furlong horses with a turn of foot. The over all time of this race tells you the pace was anything but true (in the conditions). A handicap later on the card run quicker. Therefore, to expect to beat Midday and Twice Over for pace was stupid. Good jockeyship is all about maximising your chance of winning.
Should Joseph had gone for home earlier to
maximise
his chance?
Not talking through my pocket, backed the other two against the fav today. Sadly with the saver bet winning.
Value Is Everything
- Total Posts 17716
MV
Hopefully he´ll stay in training, as although he´s won a lot of money he ´s not very fashionable at the moment as a stallion.
– H Cecil on Twice Over, after last year’s Champion Stakes win.
Ginger
Await The Dawn has another 3 gp1 entries this season, none over further than 10f.
Midday is hardly a 10f specialist, either.Ian Mongan is Henry’s number 2 Andy – a very capable jockey and I am glad he is getting his chance.
I think the fav is way too short for this and took him on last week with the Cecil pair. If you watch the Hardwicke the LAST thing you should be thinking is "this horse could benefit from a shorter trip". He has beaten very little in his last two starts and has it to prove at this level. I DO think he is unexposed and could be very good but he will have to be to win tomorrow against PROVEN Group 1 winners.
As far as I can see the ground is still Good, Good to Soft in places which will be no problem for either Midday or TO. Midday is ultra consistent and never finishes out of the first 2. What would concern me is if the ground were sticky rather than soft. I believe those were the conditions that twice found her out in Ireland (it was the Irish Oaks not the Yorkshire in which she disappointed Ginge).
Twice Over bounced back last time and was too big at 8’s last week. He still works like a good horse and I have always been fascinated to see who would win out of a clash with him and Midday – we’ll get our answer tomorrow. I am hoping for 1-2.
I wouldnt back ROC. I have seen no evidence that he has improved from 2 to 3. The Irish Guineas was a very poor race and he had the run of it from the front beating Dubawi Gold who was extremely flattered to finish so close to the wonderhorse in the English version. The close up 3rd in the Irish was Oracle FFS! ROC’s other races this season have been hugely disappointing and I cant have him finishing in the first 3.
So Midday or Twice Over for me and I honestly don’t mind which one it is.
Not bad hey?!! What a great race. Couldnt be happier!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I did fully expect a much better run from ATD, had my seasons winnings on today. wondering if out of form / virus in yard excuse will come up soon. Treasure beach and cape blanco excluded as they left for America before virus hit lol
I dont blame JOB or anyone but myself for the bet, I really fancied this one and either completly wrong and ATD is a group 2 horse at best or Mr sunglasses stables going to be completly out of form for rest of the month.
Congrats to those who fancied Cecils, there really are some good judges on this forum.There have been some good points made on here – too many made to paste you all I’m afraid!
Re: Jo I understand both sides of the argument given – but if he weren’t up to riding in that race today then he shouldn’t ought to be riding at all…
it was shocking that a horse like ‘Await’ was asked to out sprint his opponents – I thought that only happened in French racing!
Was that down to Jo? I don’t know – but what is for sure – is that he is in a no win situation there…
much the same as Sam was when people cried out that ‘Long Run’ needed a new & well established "Pro" jock – look what happened there!
Those that took that particular point of view – couldn’t avoid the kipper when it came!!
Maybe ‘if’ the horse is good enough it will get you out of trouble??… and ground pace etc won’t matter – maybe some things are that simple?!But let’s not forget that before today (he) ‘AWTD’ had struggled to beat ‘Harris’ a horse who was thumped by the ‘St’ – who was also downgraded b4 the KG for having only just beaten ‘Midday’ in another race which did turn into a sprint!
I’m glad that ‘Midday’ upheld her form (though I’ve seen TQ go for it more in the past) – and as I’ve said/asked before was her bad run in Ireland just down to ground?
‘Midday’ twice flops @ Curra
‘WF’ twice BF @ Ascot
‘Makfi’ twice beaten @ AscotThose three should show that ‘horses for courses’ does still count as all won again…
Maybe as this poster says:Think we might be over complicating things.
The first two home today had CD!
Ps: Frankie said it was testing today – & despite what some said I don’t think that it was in ‘AWTD’ favour – no – just because he had won on it over further – when he looked (lets be fair) a complete plodder…
In that sense Paul as you said about the going – I think that you know your goose was cooked – welcome and sorry by the way!
Pps: Cecil said last year that ‘TO’ is better with give due to his bad feet! The quote is on here from last year…
Ppps:
Has someone now finally got what I was saying re: Jo riding ‘Woderic’ in the Irish 2000?!‘Zenno Rob Roy’ vs the ‘Electrocutionist’
– now that had an international flavour!!
Not bad names either!!MV
Hopefully he´ll stay in training, as although he´s won a lot of money he ´s not very fashionable at the moment as a stallion.
– H Cecil on Twice Over, after last year’s Champion Stakes win.
Ginger
Await The Dawn has another 3 gp1 entries this season, none over further than 10f.
Midday is hardly a 10f specialist, either.Await The Dawn is probably fully effective at 10 furlongs Reet, he just needs a true pace to produce his best.
I don’t think I said Midday was a "10 furlong specialist".
I said "predominently". She’s proven capable of a turn of foot in top class races at 10 furlongs in the past.Value Is EverythingIan Mongan is Henry’s number 2 Andy – a very capable jockey and I am glad he is getting his chance.
I think the fav is way too short for this and took him on last week with the Cecil pair. If you watch the Hardwicke the LAST thing you should be thinking is "this horse could benefit from a shorter trip". He has beaten very little in his last two starts and has it to prove at this level. I DO think he is unexposed and could be very good but he will have to be to win tomorrow against PROVEN Group 1 winners.
As far as I can see the ground is still Good, Good to Soft in places which will be no problem for either Midday or TO. Midday is ultra consistent and never finishes out of the first 2. What would concern me is if the ground were sticky rather than soft. I believe those were the conditions that twice found her out in Ireland (it was the Irish Oaks not the Yorkshire in which she disappointed Ginge).
Twice Over bounced back last time and was too big at 8’s last week. He still works like a good horse and I have always been fascinated to see who would win out of a clash with him and Midday – we’ll get our answer tomorrow. I am hoping for 1-2.
I wouldnt back ROC. I have seen no evidence that he has improved from 2 to 3. The Irish Guineas was a very poor race and he had the run of it from the front beating Dubawi Gold who was extremely flattered to finish so close to the wonderhorse in the English version. The close up 3rd in the Irish was Oracle FFS! ROC’s other races this season have been hugely disappointing and I cant have him finishing in the first 3.
So Midday or Twice Over for me and I honestly don’t mind which one it is.
Not bad hey?!! What a great race. Couldnt be happier!!!
I couldn’t be happier either joni
Think Sir Henry should again be given praise for the way he’s brought back TO. After a disappointing start to the season he again dropped TO in class to win a Group 2. Then steps him up in class again and voila!Edit: Delighted for Ian Mongan
A genius Martin – absolutely right. He is now favourite to be Champion Trainer which would be staggering given where he was in 2005.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I wouldn’t lose faith in Await The Dawn – he should be a slightly better price next time. Once soft appeared in the going description I think he was always likely to struggle. At Ascot he won despite the ground. Given a quicker surface I would be surprised if he couldn’t reverse the placings with both Twice Over and Midday.
I wouldn’t lose faith in Await The Dawn – he should be a slightly better price next time. Once soft appeared in the going description I think he was always likely to struggle. At Ascot he won despite the ground. Given a quicker surface I would be surprised if he couldn’t reverse the placings with both Twice Over and Midday.
Really? He doesnt look particularly speedy to me and a return to 1m 4f would be the way to go imo.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
) but I happen to agree with andyod about using inexperienced jockeys when contesting Group races.
stables going to be completly out of form for rest of the month.
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