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Sunday’s Qualifiers
WASNTME
doesn’t qualify. Beaten 20l in Graded handicap hurdles would be ridiculous to include.
is a strange one. I’ve been preparing myself for a week or so for horses beaten exaggerated distances from Southwell in December. Except Baraconti was beaten less than before. It’s not included for that reason, as it has run "a race."
It’s hard to make too much of an 11/4 winner in a 4 runner race, but
has shown it can still gallop in doing that.
Jose,
I think this thread certainly has legs but you’re being far too hard on yourself by measuring your results against SP. By definition the ones which are well backed are the most likely winners using this sort of method so I think it would be much fairer to use the best price available in the morning for these horses.
I also think you should be able to exclude horses which are clearly hopeless ie ones which have never finished in the first three and also horses which are clearly on the downgrade ie haven’t won for more than a year.
Tuffers
Sunday’s Qualifiers
BOMBIE BOYThis one was struggling at halfway and soon pulled up. Appears to have a problem either physical or mental.
As an aside, he seemed to show a good deal more energy in the paddock than he did on the track.
Rob
I will reply as soon as the login problems are over and update the profit/loss numbers as well.
Tuesday’s Qualifiers
DURHAM TOWN
BLACK TOR FIGARRO
ETRUSCAN
SOFTLY KILLING ME
BYWAYS BOYWinners 3/47
Placed 11/47Profit/Loss at SP -33.25pts
Profit/Loss at Early Prices -19pts
After this week, I’m going to update a fuller look at the overall picture. 16 weeks is around 4 months, so that will offer some guide.
Tuffers, the well backed horses are obviously more likely to win and I am taking a look at both the SP and early prices.
The bigger early prices, even on those less well backed that win, clearly have more hope of profitability, but it still will depend on the odd 20/1+ horses winning.
I agree about excluding obvious no hopers. Peter Grayson runners being the first I’m going to exclude. I will list them for information purposes, but not as qualifiers. They couldn’t win if they were given a furlong headstart.
On the other point, showing some ability was meant to be the main purpose behind the thread and looking at "Bombie Boy" the horse had run 4th alongside a string of dismal efforts, so that’s something I’m going to look at.
Rob, thanks for the information on Bombie Boy. That is the other obvious side with horses on this thread that they are struggling for real reasons.
Thursday’s Qualifiers
CRIANZA
I’m now using some common sense. These qualify – for good reasons they’re not counting towards the profit/loss.
One hasn’t won since 2006 and the other is trained by…….. Peter Grayson.
Others
FLOW CHART
It’s an interesting issue with Grayson runners. Presumably the handicapper ought to be downgrading them more quickly, whereas for most of the other runners in your thread he should be less lenient. Unfortunately I don’t see how he can do this unless he makes some judgement on the extent of non-trying in each race. I would guess he is not allowed to make allowances for lack of effort as it would raise integrity issues.
Even I don’t have an answer for Peter Grayson’s runners where the handicapper is concerned. In HK you have to train a certain number of winners per season to keep the Hong Kong Jockey Club happy – it’s a sign of British Horse Racing Grayson keeps the BHA happy.
Friday’s Qualifiers
Fluer De’Lion
Briary MacEven I don’t have an answer for Peter Grayson’s runners where the handicapper is concerned. In HK you have to train a certain number of winners per season to keep the Hong Kong Jockey Club happy – it’s a sign of British Horse Racing Grayson keeps the BHA happy.
Friday’s Qualifiers
Fluer De’Lion
Briary MacSilver Linnet looks like he’s still a ‘work in progress’, Jose. Let’s keep our eyes on that one in particular.
Silver Linnet looks like he’s still a ‘work in progress’, Jose. Let’s keep our eyes on that one in particular.
I don’t think anyone who watched that race yesterday could have missed that, sadly.
Official rating of 59 on the AW – I’m still looking forward to seeing it get under 55, even if it was so obvious yesterday.
Saturday’s Qualifiers
VALENTINO SWING
PINEAPPLE PETE
WINGMANOther
There’s plenty of other horses to look out for for various reasons but it would take me forever to list them.
Mille Chief making Aegean Dawn look even better is something I’m expecting (and hoping for) if Sandown is on.
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