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So as my family are once again dragging me away for Guineas weekend I thought I’d write up my thoughts tonight.
I’m happy with my 20-1 about
Abtaal
in the Guineas and grow more confident about his chances each day and with every drop of rain. I feel sure he will be there or thereabouts. Dangers – obviously Camelot and I also like Trumpet Major as he will get virtually identical conditions as when he was so impressive in the Craven.
Discourse (8’s) and Moonstone Magic (8’s) run for me in the 1,000 and I am more confident about the latter. Not sure Discourse will handle the ground and a bit concerned by his trainer’s form as well. Dangers – Maybe
Elsewhere on the day there are several I fancy but have no idea what sort of price they will be so will put them up as SP.
There is a horse running at Thirsk called
Farhh
who I think is mech better than a handicapper. He is unbeaten and was seriously impressive in both his starts so far.
I am a big fan of
Vita Nova
and will have a big bet on her if I can get a reasonable price. She is a Group 1 filly in a listed race without a penalty and loves soft ground.
Fiorente
is in my TTTF and I think he will do big things this year. Has been impressing on the gallops and he could kick start SMS’s season in the Jockey Club on Saturday. It looks a very good race but, if the 8 run, is a decent each way bet.
I will also have a bet on
Noble Mission
on Saturday. He meets his Yarmouth conqueror but I think he may reverse the form over the longer trip and with the benefit of a run.
Finally, I can’t quite understand why
Daddy Long Legs
is 25-1 for the Kentucky Derby and will have a little bit of each way fun on him. AOB did rather well with his runners over there last year and this one has already shown decent form this year.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
So a freezing Devon would not be top of my list of places to be on Guineas weekend but such are the compromises one has to make in life sometimes when one has a young family and a terrifying wife. Next week I am away Monday to Friday night and am then off to Newbury on Sat afternoon to see YOU KNOW WHO so I needed to earn some brownie points. I caught up with what I could last night on Sky Plus and thought it was a fascinating weekend.
I was pleased to get 3 out of 5 winners on this thread but they were all heavily supported so I didnt get very rich.
Vita Nova
won ok but was very workmanlike and I had my heart in my mouth listening to the commentary. Still she will improve massively for that and remains one to watch this season.
Farrh
was awesome. This colt is very good and I honestly think he could end up being a Group 1 horse especially on soft ground. He won as he liked carrying a lot of weight and it will be interesting to see where he heads next. Simon Crisford said he needs plenty of time between his races and he is clearly not easy to train but he has loads of ability.
Noble Mission
won well in the end in a race where most things went wrong for him. Inevitably there is now talk of the Derby but I wouldnt be getting carried away just yet and think he has to improve a lot still. Lets not forget he only beat a newcomer by three quarters of a length (albeit a very promising one) and I think that, rather like Born To Sea, some people are getting carried away because of his big brother. Having said that he is so physically different to his brother and he does look more of a middle distance type so I do hope he will turn out to be decent. He seems to hit a flat spot in his races which would suggest he would be better over further. My guess is next stop will be the Predominate at Goodwood. Henry has already said he doesnt want to take on the big guns too early so that would rule out the Dante. I think the 25-1 of Ladbrokes is still more realistic than the 14’s of some of the others though.
What to make of the Guineas? An unsatisfactory race with the field dividing (don’t you hate tha?t!) but the best horse surely won. I know some people were underwhelmed by
Camelot
but, when you consider all the negatives he had to overcome I think he did remarkably well to win. I don’t mean the stats which I think are a load of old cobblers but the fact that it was his first run of the season (all the other high finishers in both races had run previously), it was on ground that almost certainly didnt suit and over a distance that is almost certainly not his optimum. He was given a lot to do but could be called the winner a couple of furlongs out and won with something in hand I thought. I wouldnt be backing him at 5-4 for the Derby with the trials still to come but he will definitely set the standard and, if he DOES improve for the run and the step up in trip, he will surely be hard to beat. Saying all that I would love him to take on my horse in the Eclipse or Juddmonte becasue he would be…………PULVERISED!!!!
My runner
Abtaal
was too bad to be true. I know the French really fancied him and the other two froggies ran well so I don’t know maybe he went off a bit quick over on that far side as the winner and second came from some way back. He is in my TTTF so I can’t give up on him yet! All in all the proximity of exposed horses like Coup De Ville suggest it wasnt the greatest renewal and, much like when Sea The Stars won it, the feeling is Camelot got away with winning a softish race but will now be able to build on that.
I havent seen the 1,000 but wasnt all that surprised at the result just the manner of it. Not sure if it will be the most reliable form but HQ’s improvement is not dissimilar from Peeping Fawns a few seasons ago. My 2 selections finished third last and second last which is bad but not as bad as the Ginge who tipped the last as well!! Sorry Ginge!
So my highlight of the weekend? Well of course it could only be one horse.
Frankel
. I watched his gallop last night and it gave me goosebumps. Worryingly I am starting to get a bit Equus about this horse!
He is a machine. You watch him and you realise that physically he is probably 100 years ahead of his time. It is almost unfair on all the others. That was soft ground he was running on and yet he moved over it almost like he was flying. Such power, such a breathtaking stride. This is the greatest horse any of us will ever see and he will prove it beyond question this year. I am literally counting down the seconds to Newbury!!!"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Dare I admit it Joni but I’m also tempted to go to Newbury just to see if I can capture the Monster on Camera….Some say he’s heard the name TAPK whispered in Seedy Bars around Nottingham and wants to teach me a lesson for slandering his reputation,confirmation,attitude and resolve,I know a cracking spot to get my shot of him……Kicking 2 bells out of me!!
Dare I admit it Joni but I’m also tempted to go to Newbury just to see if I can capture the Monster on Camera….Some say he’s heard the name TAPK whispered in Seedy Bars around Nottingham and wants to teach me a lesson for slandering his reputation,confirmation,attitude and resolve,I know a cracking spot to get my shot of him……Kicking 2 bells out of me!!
That would be fantastic – yeah do try and make it and we can meet up if you like.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Joni,its not everyday you meet a superstar,particularly one with Presence,looks and a totally unique way of doing things,a record second to none makes even more appeal………….Shall we ask Ginge to meet up too?
I love the Chester May meeting but it will be very hard to find any winner this week with the ground the way it is.
I have found a couple that I think could run well.
In the big one I like
Harrisons Cave
each way at 9-1. AOB’s horses are running so well and he could have a good week. HC goes well on soft and is well handicapped. The only problem is the draw as he need to get across from a wider berth. I also could not forgive myself if I left out dear old Ajaan at 33-1 (ew). He is so unpredictable but loves extreme distances these days and has come down to a raceable mark on ground he also likes. He could finish last or he could just stay on for a place.
The other horse I have backed today is
Rosslyn Castle
each way at 6-1 in the last. He impressed me at Windsor and runs off only 87. If he handles the track and conditions he should go close.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
A nice winner in the last with
Rosslyn Castle
hosing in at 7-1! Will take a hike in the weights after that but may turn out to be better than a handicapper.
Harrison’s Cave
was given an awful lot to do in the Cup and should have been placed.
Nothing I fancy tomorrow but will be keeping a close eye on
Air Traffic
in the first race at Goodwood. He is bred to be very good and ran really well in the Wood Ditton last year before suffering a setback. If he handles the soft ground he wins.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
The Players’ Championship starts tomorrow and I have to have a bet after my success in the Masters. Here are my selections:
Rory M – win 10-1
Lee Westwood – win 14-1
Justin Rose – ew 40-1
Louis Oouisthuizen – ew 40-1
Rickie Fowler – ew 50-1
KJ Choi – ew 90-1
Carl Petterson – ew 110-1
Fredrik Jacobsen – ew 110-1"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Nothing much today with the ground the way it is but there is a Cecil horse running in the 8.30 at Nottingham tonight who is miles better than he has shown so far and should sluice home IF going on the ground. I’ll have a little interest on
Searing Heat
11-2.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Tomorrow is really about 1 horse for me. The stable have been talking up
World Domination
all Spring and he will have no excuses tomorrow. His form figures do not inspire much confidence but they think he is a Group 1 horse and hopefully he will start to show it tomorrow. At the moment you can get 7-2 and I have had a nice win bet.
I think Cecil could have a good day with
Chachamaidee
and
Emilio Largo
both having good chances at 5-2 and 4-1 respectively and I also like David Lanigan’s
Main Sequence
at 5-2.
Although this is a flat thread I should also mention a favourite of mine that I have backed at 10-1 in the Swinton.
Saphir River
!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
2 nice winners but a very disappointing run from WD who is clearly just a morning glory.
You’ll struggle to see a more impressive turn of foot this year than
Chahcamaidee
produced in the first. She got TQ out of trouble as she was pretty much last turning in. On that sort of form she will be hard to beat in the Windsor Forest stakes at RA.
Main Sequence
keeps improving and, if you take Camelot out, the Derby looks quite open. I had a little bit of 33’s just before the off and I hope he takes his chance as he has to have a decent ew chance.
Next week should be revealing with the main trials taking place at York. I am looking forward to seeing
Mandean
run as he is another AP Derby bet for me. I am just worried about the form of the stable as they have been very poor so far. In fact SBS has made a better start than M Al Z!
Whilst speaking of disappointments I must say that SDS is not looking great for the Jockeys title. He must be scratching his head. He accepts the job as second jockey to Godolphin, then sees them offer the same job to MB, then sees MB take virtually all the rides Frankie can’t do, and at the same time loses the first jockey job with MJ to Joe Fanning. He rode 3 no-hopers today and is just not getting the rides.
Anyway. Finish on a positive. One week to go!!! I am nervous already but I just know we are going to see something very very special………..
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
So am feeling a bit out of it this week as I am stuck in Geneva and can’t see any of the action but sounds like The Fugue was very impressive today.
Looking at the cards tomorrow I will be very interested in the Dante as I have an AP Derby bet running on
Mandean
and one of my TTTF’s in
Ektihaam
. If I was to back one of them tomorrow it would be the latter. I was impressed with the way he beat Wrotham Heath at Newbury and he looks a big strong, powerful colt who seems to have really grown between 2 and 3. If he had not run so badly in the Dewhurst he would probably be a warm favourite for tomorrow but there were excuses for that run and I think he is the one they will all have to beat. Last time I looked you could get 5-1. I’ll back him to win.
Mandean is Godolphin’s main hope for the Derby but I say again I have been very disappointed by M Al Z’s horses so far this season and would not back him with any confidence. He has some solid 2 year old form to his name but it may be that he will come on a fair bit for the run. Whatever happens I do hope that the race throws up a decent winner as at the moment it seems Ballydoyle have a complete stranglehold on the Derby.
I will be hoping an old favourite of mine runs well tomorrow.
Timepiece
is never at her best first time out and I expect her to improve a lot for that first run last week. However I think she is a mare who comes into her own in the second half of the season so will leave well alone.
One other horse worth mentioning from the Cecil yard tomorrow is
Continuum
who is from the same family as Timpiece, Father Time, Passage of Time, etc and who still holds an entry in the Irish 2,000. He runs at Newmarket and has received plenty of positive reports.
Just over 2 days to go guys……………………….!!!!!!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
An interesting Dante but I would be surprised if we saw the Derby winner. He ground it out but he didn’t show me the X factor and I think there may be one or two better on the day. I thought my selection Ektihaam ran very well and got outstayed. He will win plenty of good races this year though. Mandean continued the extremely poor form of his trainer and once again Godolphin have managed to take a quality colt and turn him into an ordinary one.
Just some info. Ektihaam ran to a mark of about 119 today. On Saturday Wrotham Heath, who finished second to him at Newbury after tiring in the last furlong, runs off 90. Thomas Chippendale, who works with WH, runs at Newbury off 87 and Nobel Mission, who beats them both, runs is a listed race at Newmarket.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Tomorrow is the moment of truth then. Almost 7 months to the day after his last romp in the QEII, the worlds greatest horse returns. I am supremely confident he will win but that doesnt stop me feeling nervous as hell. In fact the last time I felt this bad was just before my wife was about to go and give birth! Unhealthy hey?!
How do I think the race will pan out? AOB is up to something I reckon. Windsor Palace is there to make sure team
Frankel
don’t have everything there own way. The one time he has ever looked vulnerable was in the SJP when Rerouted bolted, TQ panicked and Ryan Moore, who ignored the mid race move, almost cought him close home on an average horse called Zoffany. I wouldnt be surprised if they try something similar tomorrow. Tom has to stay cool and run his own race behind Bullet Train. If he does that he wins easily. I’ll be there and I can’t wait.
Two others I am backing tomorrow will be
Wrotham He
ath and
Thomas Chippendale
. Both still entered in the Derby, both running off very winnable handicap marks.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
It’s not every day you see a legend in the flesh.
He strutted around the pre-parade as if he owned the place.
Graceful, athletic, proud.
Gordon aka The Ante Post King!
Frankel looked pretty special as well. Too breathless to write about it now but will do later.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Did you get his autograph? Would fetch a tenner on ebay.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
:D
Did you get his autograph? Would fetch a tenner on ebay.
No – but I shook his hand and havent washed it since. Hoping something might rub off!
You got a positive mention Nath!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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