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I don’t know Reet it may not be a complete waste of time if for example they met in France that would be fun.
ok Clint you wouldn’t be collecting any dosh but you could visit Notre Dame Cathedral which is absolutely beautiful. See the actual Arc de Triomphe which is a big thing decalaring the French won some war or something, probably against themselves.. Montmartre is great for shopping. as is Champs-Elysees or if you want to buy your girllfriend a diamond ring go to Place Vendome which would be better than backing SOF
Just pulling your chain mate but France is a must if you are going to go racing………good weather, good horses and great food…….almost on a par with Perth in Decemeber:lol:
As the St Leger winner, Conduit, was outstanding on the day, it might suggest that the BC Turf was a proper test, but the raft of 10f horses close-up suggests that SOF was done for speed, rather than anything to do with the ground.
Not a proper test ? It certainly was for the Ballydoyle runners.
This was a mile and a half race and the pacesetter , who was closely pursued by SOF, went through the mile marker in rapid time ; top miling time, in fact . Seriously, is there anyone out there who honestly believes that SOF was going to produce a fast final fraction after being asked to do so much hard running early in the race ? If ever a race was set up for the closers this was one. And I may even travel to Europe next year to back SOF to beat Conduit ( I believe they are both staying in training next year, so there is a good chance they’ll meet again ) , because I can’t believe Ballydoyle will get their tactics so badly wrong twice.
One day people will cotton on to what a powerful tool fractional timing actually is .
ClintM
Did your fractionals tell you that Soldier Of Fortune needs a really stiff test at 12f to be seen at his best, and the sharp track and fast ground at Santa Anita made it an examination that was never going to be in his favour?
Far from being a tactically inastute ride, both he and his pacemaker were ridden to give him the best possible chance in near impossible circumstances, and his 4th place finish is testament to how close he would have got – however he was ridden – in those circumstances.Naive is a word that springs to mind. If you think that going through a mile in 1.33 ish is a tactically astute thing to do in a 12 furlong race then I really think that you need to learn more about how racing actually works.
And I may even travel to Europe next year to back SOF to beat Conduit
Then I’d advise you to stay at home.
Michael Stoute isn’t famous for tilting at windmills, (Conduit being his third winner of the ‘Turf’, though his first 3yo) and the very fact that he stays in training next year is warning enough that the horse has more improvement to come.
As it stands, he is just about the most improved horse in training this season (46lb on official figures), and for a St Leger winner to do what he did in the completely different environs of Santa Anita speaks volumes for his latent class and potential.
At the moment it’s just my opinion, but I’d be fairly certain that SOF, and a number of other classy older horses, won’t see where this horse went, next season.Back in ’05, Giacomo won the Kentucky Derby. Had the race been run in England the fans there would have seen a horse come from off the pace and nail all at the wire. People would have then praised the horse’s acceleration – ‘how he quickened ‘ – and would have then made him favorite for his next outing., but they would have then been left scratching their heads trying to explain why he only won in minor company thereafter.But , thankfully, the race was run at Churchill, and racing fans here knew from the very moment he crossed the wire that probably the best horse hadn’t won – many had gotten involved in a pace dual and just cooked themselves, which left the winner to crawl past exhausted horses . It was Giacomo’s lucky day. Giacomo was then made about 3rd best for the Preakness and it came as a surprise to very few that he didn’t win. Now, I’m not saying that Conduit won’t ever win a Gr1 again , but , imho, there are parallels between the ’05 KD and the ’08 BC Turf.
You heard it here : exercise caution if you’re ever going to back Conduit to beat SOF.
As good as Aiden has been this season, most of his big race success has come in Britain and Ireland, I think he only won 3 or 4 of his group 1s "abroad" and he must of contested most of the European ones. Not quite sure what that says or means, but maybe ours have not always been the strongest ever and certainly the likes of the Duke have been able to pick up some fairly soft looking races. That said I think the duels between Raven’s Pass and Henry has been brilliant, but it seems that whoever got 1st run won and certainly early on Jimmy Fortune seemed reluctant to have a go. But back to Murtagh, one minute jockeys are the best ever, then they ride a loser or two and they are pants. Its a no win situation really, look at Sam Thomas and in the past Ruby and AP. Punters talk through their pockets too much when in reality its horses who win races more often than not, rather than great rides.
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Naive is a word that springs to mind. If you think that going through a mile in 1.33 ish is a tactically astute thing to do in a 12 furlong race then I really think that you need to learn more about how racing actually works.
Not naive enough to think one can predict the outcome of future races on the evidence of just one run, while completely ignoring all the previous form of its contestants.
I wish you luck – I think you’ll need it!Naive is a word that springs to mind. If you think that going through a mile in 1.33 ish is a tactically astute thing to do in a 12 furlong race then I really think that you need to learn more about how racing actually works.
Not naive enough to think one can predict the outcome of future races on the evidence of just one run, while completely ignoring all the previous form of its contestants.
I wish you luck – I think you’ll need it!I would be interested to know which previous form by Conduit would merit such a strong position against Soldier of Fortune. Surely your statement and I quote
” Michael Stoute isn’t famous for tilting at windmills, (Conduit being his third winner of the ‘Turf’, though his first 3yo) and the very fact that he stays in training next year is warning enough that the horse has more improvement to come.
As it stands, he is just about the most improved horse in training this season (46lb on official figures), and for a St Leger winner to do what he did in the completely different environs of Santa Anita speaks volumes for his latent class and potential.
At the moment it’s just my opinion, but I’d be fairly certain that SOF, and a number of other classy older horses, won’t see where this horse went, next season”has nothing to do with interpreting any sort of past form. Actually if I used that argument SOF’s past form is vastly superior to that of Conduit, Santa Anita aside.
A strange statement indeed.
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Because, brendanr, without being aware of a horse’s previous form, you would miss the whole point of the need to understand and interpret it, exactly as you appear to have done.
Conduit has long shown promise but, probably due to inexperience, threw away a gp2 at Ascot and scraped home in a gp3 at Goodwod. However, with the benefit of that experience, he showed something like his true colours in the gp1 St Leger, winning comfortably and showing a 10lb increase on any previous rating. On to Santa Anita, he went on to show even more improvement, though in entirely different circumstances, in which most Leger winners would have regressed.
As he wasn’t immediately whipped off to stud, and given he is only a 3yo – coupled with his trainer’s long history of improving horses as they age – it is a fairly reasonable assumption that he still has more improvement to come; despite already having won one of the world’s top 12f races.
Likewise with SOF, and as I explained previously, it would be totally wrong to judge him on his run in disadvantageous circumstances, but it would be equally wrong to expect him to find many top level12f European races where he would have his ideal conditions, much as his past form shows he rarely has.
Thankfully, owing to its nature, there is much more to understanding European racing form than can be gleaned from the sectionals on one race around a flat featureless track in America.I doubt if I have misinterpreted any of his European form but even his best form in the Leger which you state to be about 10lbs better than anything else he showed to date at that time, would not scratch the five best performances SOF has shown to date. You seem to be pinning a lot on his run at Santa Anita win calling it one of the top 12f races in the world. The thing you fail to see is that race was perfectly suited to Conduit who was way off a murderous pace see the 1,33 mile whereas SoF was more or less responsible for it. In essence that race was a fluke especially in the context of comparing SoF and Conduit. Conduit still has something to prove if he is to be as good as you seem to think he is. Of course connections have to be respected big time but right now you are speculating more than actually going on hard evidence. So in recapping imo the Leger form is not good enough, anything he showed before that is not even mentionable,and the SA form was established under slightly suspect circumstances. Conduit still has it to prove whereas SoF does not. If Conduit and SoF meet sometime next year I will be interested to see how the betting market plays out and make my decision with a fair amount of cold hard cash if appropriate. One thing is clear to me if the ground is soft I see little chance of Conduit beating SoF on anything he has shown to date. When the time comes I’ll send you a personal invite to join in the fun and games at the exchange site of your choice.
Sir Stouty is most famous for laundering money to the West Indies more than for training horses since Fallon left.Same applies to Cecil, his fame went with Fallon.
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brendanr
The thing you fail to see, though I have made it abundantly clear over a number of posts, is that Conduit is a rapidly improving horse.
He has improved in every single race he has run (his Leger run alone was rated only 3lbs short of SOF’s best ever), and showed further improvement to win the Turf, something that would be well beyond most Leger winners, whatever the pace.
It is also notable that SOF, despite "the murderous pace" ran within 8lbs of his best-ever performance, on ground you say was unsuitable, and on a much sharper course than ideal, which again supports the view that there wasn’t too much wrong with the way he was ridden.
None of the above is ‘speculation’ either, but observations based on cold hard facts and, far from being a ‘fluke’, is a result I’ll expect to see completely upheld next season, in all but extreme circumstances.Au contraire RH I see exactly where you are coming from. Hopefully we will see it play out next year.
Naive is a word that springs to mind. If you think that going through a mile in 1.33 ish is a tactically astute thing to do in a 12 furlong race then I really think that you need to learn more about how racing actually works.
Not naive enough to think one can predict the outcome of future races on the evidence of just one run, while completely ignoring all the previous form of its contestants.
I wish you luck – I think you’ll need it!I don’t think I’m the one who needs the luck.
And I may even travel to Europe next year to back SOF to beat Conduit
Then I’d advise you to stay at home.
Michael Stoute isn’t famous for tilting at windmills, (Conduit being his third winner of the ‘Turf’, though his first 3yo) and the very fact that he stays in training next year is warning enough that the horse has more improvement to come.
As it stands, he is just about the most improved horse in training this season (46lb on official figures), and for a St Leger winner to do what he did in the completely different environs of Santa Anita speaks volumes for his latent class and potential.
At the moment it’s just my opinion, but I’d be fairly certain that SOF, and a number of other classy older horses, won’t see where this horse went, next season.Just wanted to bump this one up.
I hope some people don’t lose too much money this year in the belief that Conduit was a superior BC Turf winner.
What a complete waste of time.
Conduit is a 1m4f-1m6f horse giving way better speedier horses 11lbs, and even coming 3rd he did finish far in front of everyone else while no where near looking his best which Stoute says he has having a hard time getting to where he was last season.
Conduit is a very good horse and if Solider Of Fortune was in the Eclipse I think he would have been even more completly whacked for six.
How you can use the Eclipse as evidence is laughable.
Hardly a waste of time RR. Your statement about Soldier of Fortune and ten furlongs is pure conjecture and misses the point. The comments ref. SoF and Conduit referred to their possibly meeting this year over what we at the time assumed would be 12 furlongs. Conduit has not delivered on some of the high praise that was heaped on him beforehand. As things stand now SoF will go done as a superior animal to Conduit. One still has a chance of proving otherwise.
One other thing if Conduit is a 12-14 furlong horse what in heaven’s name was his trainer doing running him over 10 furlongs. Not exactly chopped liver, the trainer I mean.
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