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As it stands, I’m split between Forte Dei Marmi and Desert Kiss…but I reserve the right to change my mind!
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
I think Royal Destination could be the one to watch, but none of them really grab me.
Anyone actually going to be there? I’m looking forward to seeing the Spitfire fly by. http://bit.ly/aQTALK
I think Wigmore Hall has a hell of a chance in this. Ahead of his mark, with the race run to suit and as a 3-y-o is obviously less exposed than most. Yes it’s weight for age, but there is no doubt that 3-y-os perform better in all-aged handicaps than statistically they are entitled at 10f+ from July onwards and I honestly think he should be something like 9/4. If he gets a fast pace and a clear run, I can’t see what will stop him.
Forte Dei Marmi has too in-and-out a profile and he looked awkward on fast ground over course and distance at the May meeting.
Imposing might prove the main threat, his form boosted today by Martyr but he will be vulnerable dropping back in trip even if the longer straight than at Ascot will suit him better.
Sweet Lightning is a bit of a mincer though. I like many notebooked him at Epsom last year, and he duly went agonisingly close at Goodwood 2 runs later. The time to catch him was fto at Chester, where he travelled well as always but didn’t find a great deal to hold on by half a length. It’s his only win in his last 14 attempts, and both Forte Dei Marmi and Imposing have beaten him easily this season.
I do think Sandor has been running well in competitive handicaps this season, he needs to hit the front at just the right time, he is not without a chance.
JohnJ
Not at all, mincer refers to a horse who travels well but finds either lots of trouble, nothing or not much off the bridle, or both. Imposing’s run was excellent given how far back he was, but Dangerous Midge won over 12f and Martyr over 2m – perhaps why all the last 13 winners of this race raced over 8-10f last time out perhaps? 12f suggests a basic lack of speed required for this race.
Further Sweet Lightning just doesn’t win often, if he’d had the class he’d have surely won the Zetland, but Forte had way too much acceleration for him, hence them stepping SL up to 12f next time out.
Good luck with him but unless there’s carnage in behind I think he’s a place lay.
Forte also murdered Sandor last year, despite meeting all the trouble in the world, still don’t know how he won!
BB,
I wouldn’t say "murdered", the race developed into a 2f sprint at Goodwood. RP comments say Sandor was flattered by the proximity to FdeiM, I’m not sure that is entirely accurate, Sandor gave away weight that day, he will receive 6lbs tomorrow.
JohnJ.
The weight turnaround is interesting enough JJ. Sandor’s another who ran over 12f lto…I concede that Sweet Lightning was being aimed at a 10f race but the reason he couldn’t get in was his rating wasn’t high enough, a sign of his win record. Trainer also says he wants give, which he won’t have, although I’m aware the Luca doesn’t want really fast for his either.
The likes of Sandor, Imposing etc can get into this off a surging gallop, but with the pace all high if Indian Days and Desert Kiss can get to the front they’ll have to use up a lot of petrol before settling into a rhythm. I imagine it will slow up round the bend, making things difficult for the real hold up performers.
Cracking race to try and work out imo!
Sweet Lightning probably is more of a 10f horse than a 12f horse but as has also been suggested, his main problem is his lack of determination. Also how well handicapped is he these days?
Not at all, mincer refers to a horse who travels well but finds either lots of trouble, nothing or not much off the bridle, or both.
All the "Mincers" i know like to come from behind Bucksy!
Imposing
it is then!
I think Wigmore Hall has a hell of a chance in this. Ahead of his mark, with the race run to suit and as a 3-y-o is obviously less exposed than most. Yes it’s weight for age, but there is no doubt that 3-y-os perform better in all-aged handicaps than statistically they are entitled at 10f+ from July onwards and I honestly think he should be something like 9/4. If he gets a fast pace and a clear run, I can’t see what will stop him.
Yet again i cant dissagree with davids analysis,he too looks another "Deauville flyer",even better handicapped, one may say but yet again TAPK has his money down and will stick with the 12"s i snaffled about
Imposing
.I am convinced this fellow will be running in Group races before the seasons out,albeit over 11/2m but so long as Ryan gets after him early this fellow will pick up and run and once he hits full stride nothing will get to him!
Dream Lodge
at 25/1 could surprise,he is listed class on his day!
Imposing is a clearly talented – I backed him at Ascot grrr – but I too can’t really have him here. Was out the back at Ascot and needed all the straight of 1m 4f to grind the field down bar one. But also noticeable was his win at York over 10.5f, where he was second last early and still second last coming round the bend. He got up because Indian Days had a proper going day and sustained a strong gallop all the way to the line.
13/13 winners of this had run over 8-10f lto, with 9/11 missing royal ascot too. The 2 exceptions ran over 10f in the Wolferton but such was the impression left by
Wigmore Hall
in chasing home 2 really smart horses in the Hampton Court, I’d think he was the main danger to Luca’s.
Either way, it seems Imposing, Wigmore Hall and the interesting Royal Destination will all be challenging late..for some..too late,
Forte Dei Marmi
will have gotten first run
gettttttttttt innnnnnnnnnnnn imposing and SL mullered too!! Forte lacked the class, Wiggy didn’t brilliant!!!!!
Well done davidjohnson and Venture to Cognac,it just shows the knowledge embedded in this forum!
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Congratulations to everyone who backed the winner, my one definately a mincer.
I suppose we’re not kids who know nothing afterall aye Marble?
Now if you wouldn’t mind I’ve got some true forumites to congratulate;
Well done davidjohnson a thorough explanation of your selection and everything went to plan, no more deserving of a big price winner than yourself and its something we’ve become acustomed too!
Venture to Cognac, a fantastic call on a Hillview Boy, which would pay some hefty place winnings! I haven’t seen much of your posts around but would like to see more thoughts from you on the big races
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