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A nice race with some well-seasoned campaigners clashing with the much-maligned milers of the classic generation.
I’m a great believer in course form on the Rowley Mile and horses that have run well there in the past (especially those trained outside Newmarket) tend to reproduce their efforts there. In the Spring Trumpet Major ran away with the Craven under a penalty before a decent effort in the Guineas. Overall his form is patchy but having run poorly last time out, he is worthy of consideration back on a track he has shown a liking for. Those 2 efforts are the best course form available. He receives 4lbs from Most Improved which entitles him to reverse Dewhurst placings from last season when he had a more eventful journey anyway. He is proven at this level, having won the Champagne Stakes last year. There is plenty of discrepancy in his early price with William Hill and Ladbrokes offering 8/1 while he is only 11/2 with Victor. In an open betting race, he is worthy of close inspection.
Heading off to HQ in a few hours time and Most Improved and Certify are my main bets of the day.
Since the Dewhurst Most Improved has had a light campaign and has shown a dislike for travelling away from home. He always runs well at Newmarket and I’m hoping he will come home today in front of Premio Loco.
As always..fingers crossed a great 2 days ahead and the bonus of seeing Frankel tomorrow before the first race galloping down the Rowley Mile before he heads for the Champion Stakes at Ascot.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I like Sovereign Debt here and have also backed Side Glance. However, am really worried now about where the pace will come from now Tazahum is out. Have saved on Premio Loco just in case he’s given an easy lead. But can see an upset.
Both my main bets like to be held up towards the back, which applies to most in this race.
Sovereign Debt
does however have a really good change of speed, so if near enough when the pace quickens still might suit. But is ridden by "Frank" who doesn’t change tactics enough (for me) when it’s a crawl.
Side Glance
is probably more of a grinding hold up merchant and might be more inconvenienced by a slow pace.
Most Improved
wasn’t that far from the lead at Ascot, but raced freely in France last time, so whether he’ll be settled in behind remains to be seen.
Joviality
seems to run her best races off a good pace.
Trumpet Major
didn’t run very well at Goodwood in another slowly run affair which
Premio Loco
won.
Fananulter
is another hold up horse but he has a good turn of foot and has won slowly run races before, could spring a surprise.
Stipulate
can go from some way out judging from his course win, but has been held up recently. Has to put a poor run behind him from York, but stable is in good form, so it’s possible.
Penitent
has good form but is better suited by softer ground.
Saigon
shouldn’t be good enough, but does have speed, so a slow run race could yet bring him in to play at a massive price.
If no jockey significantly changes tactics and goes on at a good pace it could be a muddling affair. A lot is going to depend on jockeyship here.
Value Is EverythingIt looks competitive to me and I don’t see an obvious winner. Most Improved will do well to win with the penalty he carries, Trumpet Major looks to be the best chance for the 3yos while Side Glance and Premio Loco look to be in good form and the latter seems a good ew bet.
Looked a race too far to me EF. Very flat. Most Improved should change his name to Least Improved. The one to take from the race is Stipulate who ran really well on the slower part of the track.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Shame the rains came for Penitent who got the lead like I thought my bet Tazahum (non-runner) and my saver bet Premio Loco (tracked Penitent) would’ve done. ie Made all.
Side Glance ran his race, just gave the winner too much rope considering there was also a tail wind.
Sovereign Debt’s run, like others held up out the back should be ignored.
Most Improved can’t be the easiest to keep sound.
Stipulate ran well, but was nearer the pace than many.
Penitent got anexcellent ride, well thought out by a trainer/jockey combination going places.
Value Is EverythingJust a little side-note.
I hear the winning jockey, Danny Tudhope’s name constantly being pronounce as TUDD _ HOPE, when in actual fact it should be TewDUP ( rhyming with chewed up )
I know the family.
Toddles back to pseuds corner.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I had a wager on him on the strength of EF’s appraisal. I’m not complaining, the good lady’s selections owe me nothing and I agree with her point about Newmarket form usually holding up with subsequent runs.
Do you think the sudden deluge just prior to the race had any impact on the result EF? (I don’t mean in the case of TM, he just wasn’t at the races today and never looked like figuring.)
I see the 3 year olds filled 5 of the last 7 places.
They really are a poor bunch this year.
I had a wager on him on the strength of EF’s appraisal. I’m not complaining, the good lady’s selections owe me nothing and I agree with her point about Newmarket form usually holding up with subsequent runs.
Do you think the sudden deluge just prior to the race had any impact on the result EF? (I don’t mean in the case of TM, he just wasn’t at the races today and never looked like figuring.)
It certainly would have been to the benefit of Penitent. He has been a revelation this season. He was probably slightly favoured by not racing up the middle, where Side Glance came through after getting a good lead into the race from Most Improved who burned himself out without pulling today. Trumpet Major tracked Most Improved but when let down there was simply no response.
The winning trainer and jockey are both of the highest calibre, although there are some weight issues for the latter that could prevent him for getting to the very top.Kicking myself as have followed Penitent in the past but thought he was outclassed
Nice each way on Premio Loco at 20’s though and Certify came home as she wished and saved the day.Frankel Mania returns to Newmarket tomorrow, he will be parading in the paddock at 12.30 before setting off down the Rowley Mile,as they want him to think he is actually running in a race..his two work companions will be with him, one of them presumable being Bullet Train, so I presume they will load them in starting stalls before the gallop.
Hopefully the sun will shine a bit more than it did today, mainly gusty and occasional showers, most of the horses paraded in their coats feeling the cold as we all were. Some good racing though, but tricky to find winners. Better luck tomorrow.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
Nice each way on Premio Loco at 20’s though and Certify came home as she wished and saved the day.
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