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.
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A good race in prospect this Sunday with Papal Bull making his final appearance before retirement and a stud assignment beckons.
Jermey Noseda sends over the highly rated Sixties Icon with Johnny Murtagh replacing Frankie Dettori on board in a bid to make ammends for the below par performance in the Breeders Cup Marathon. Murtaghs’ last ride on Sixties Icon ended with a decent win at Glorious Goodwood in the Glorious Stakes.
One that I fancy for this is Luca Cumani’s Purple Moon. Purple Moon didnt get his preferred ground last time out at Longchamp yet still finished just a neck behind Crossharbour in a reasonable Grp2. Purple Moon did seem to need the run slightly and it was promising to see such a good performance when ridden near the front by Jamie Spencer, tactically different to Purple Moons’ previous runs.
Of the Japanese raiders, Meisho Samson is the most familiar following the recent run in the Arc, just 6L behind Zarkava (4L ahead of an underperforming Papal Bull) and Meisho Samson does look the pick of the home team. Vodka heads the market yet doesnt seem to have run over this distance on very many occasions at all.
I personally cant find anything in the Japanese raiders here, despite this beind their top home race, and cannot understand why these horses are 4-1 with our friendly English bookmakers whilst Sixties Icon and Purple Moon are 16’s and 20’s respectively.
With this in mind, It’s a nice wager on Purple Moon for me who should get the ground he thrives on. 20’s is too big for a horse of his quality
2pts PURPLE MOON
1pt SIXTIES ICON
- Total Posts 17716
hth
I don’t understand how you could put Sixties Icon and Purple Moon in, and yet leave Papal Bull out?
Ignore his last 2 runs, as he needs good ground and a good pace at 12f, neither of which had either, yet both look almost certain here.
The last time he had such conditions,- a close 2nd to DOM in the King George – is surely better form than either of the others can muster and, having won the race twice previously, his trainer knows exactly what it takes to do it again.
His jockey would have more idea than last year too, and given the horse’s improvement since, surely only luck in running can keep him out of the frame?Incidentally, does anyone know of a link where the race can be watched live, t’would be a pity to miss it?
hth
I don’t understand how you could put Sixties Icon and Purple Moon in, and yet leave Papal Bull out?
Ignore his last 2 runs, as he needs good ground and a good pace at 12f, neither of which had either, yet both look almost certain here.
The last time he had such conditions,- a close 2nd to DOM in the King George – is surely better form than either of the others can muster and, having won the race twice previously, his trainer knows exactly what it takes to do it again.
His jockey would have more idea than last year too, and given the horse’s improvement since, surely only luck in running can keep him out of the frame?Incidentally, does anyone know of a link where the race can be watched live, t’would be a pity to miss it?
I personally think Papal Bull wont run too close in this RH. Meisho Samson ran 4L ahead of him in the Arc and due to my opinion that Meisho Samson cant beat my selections here that’s the main reason I’ve bypassed Papal Bull.
Granted – if he can reproduce his King George form then he should be able to do it but I just dont have a good feeling about him. Purple Moon has been prepared for a winter campaign and should be ready and on top of his game for this. Papal Bull has been on the go since June and has had some very top class and strenuous races. I’d rather be opposing him (aswell as the fact youre never quite sure what Papal Bull is going to turn up – the quirky one or the decent racehorse?)
It’s worth noting too that all of the entrants from the King George (bar Youmzain who took a big break) have tailed off quite dramatically in the close season. The Duke hasnt been himself since that race, Lucarno dropped quicker than a dead fly in his following races and Ask (albeit a decent 6th in the Arc improving from the KG) just curled up in the Simon Stakes.
I;ve also noted that on good-to-firm over this distance last year Papal Bull finished 5L behind Sixties Icon at Newmarket. He did rectify this very well later that summer but Sixties Icon was then put away for the season which shouts out that Noseda believed there was a big problem with the horse.
Sixties Icon has come back stronger than ever this year and should be able to put in a good performance here. I note that Sixties Icon has had more races than Papal and has been on the go since May but he was put away mid-season in preperation for something like this. Noseda is on the hunt for a big Group 1 for this horse.
As for the live stream – have RUK or ATR not got this? This would be a shame if they didnt
Even worse – I don’t understand how you can be so ignorant of the local horses! They should towel the Europeans!
The pattern of this campaign leads me to believe Purple Moon will be set for the Hong Kong Vase. This race is a fairly good tune-up for December 14, of which Purple Moon is closely related to Vallee Enchantee, winner of the Vase in 2003 or 2004.
Papal Bull has already proven not good enough in the Japan Cup.
Meisho Samson needs a thoroughly consistent and strong gallop, as he was not quick enough for Admire Moon last year. Not sure of the speed on first glance but I think they go fairly strong in this as a general rule.
I like MS however, in droves.
Vodka is one of the boys, so that is not an argument.
Daiwa Scarlet is absent and I’m sure it’s because she cannot stay 2400m. It’s difficult to link form in this Japan Cup when DS is missing, MS has no recent local form, and neither do Deep Sky, Oken Bruce Lee or the first-up Asakusa Kings.
I see Uma recently posted so I’d love to read something further from him/her.
MDeering,
If Papal Bull has already been proved as not good enough for the Japan Cup, what horses are rated better (i’ll take the KG as evidence Papal Bull has a high enough performance in him to win a substandard renewal like this)?
If we take it Youzmain had an off day behind DOM wasn’t it a case of Papa Bull exposing DOM rather than it being a great performance?
He was well beat by SOF and later by Zarkaza in the Arc and perhaps that’s just about the strength of him.I wouldn’t be going overboard backing him and wouldn’t touch the race or him with a barge pole.
I too don’t believe it was a 130 performance, but even if you take it as a 123/124 performance, that’s more than enough to show he has the ability to go close.
Actually, no – I don’t trust you can actually figure out your own faults.
Papal Bull has proven as not being good enough in the Japan Cup.
He was beaten 5 lengths 7th last year – Meisho Samson and Vodka ahead of him on that occasion.
Maybe I should define the language I use as always being an opinion, rather than fact. That way you are unlikely to come out of the cave and focus the lense of your sniper. So that is my fault, and I apologise.
MDeering,
I see your understanding of required form is still in progress.
A horse not winning a race one year is not prevented from doing so the next. Papal Bull did not run to his best in the Japan Cup, and if you want to debate my point, his KG run gives him every chance.
You are essentially saying, in horse racing, it is impossible for a horse beaten by another horse to ever turn around the form???!!!!
Now, if we take an arbitrary (some say 130) best form figure of 125 for Papal Bull, how does that rule him out of the finish? What horses have significantly higher ratings? I am not saying he will win, merely that he cannot be discounted in the manner as done so by you.
It is you, MDeering, who should re-read your own posts, which are, as often before, stacked with inaccuracies.
And, ‘lense of your sniper’ … ??
English pleaseNot sure what has provoked your response …
Read my post again .. it asks, if you are discounting a 125-130 horse as ‘proven’ not good enough to win, I would like to know where are the 130+ horses that are lurking in this renewal of the Japan Cup.
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MD
Papal Bull has improved 7/10lb from last year depending which view you take. 5l @ 12f equates to 7.5lb; job done.
Using last year’s form to dismiss an improving horse is just plain daft..MD,
Meisho Samson’s last 5 RPR’s: 108, 117, 121, 122, 120
Vodka’s last 5 RPR’s: 114, 116, 121, 121, 114
Papal Bull’s last 5 RPR’s: 120, 115, 126, 106, 114I’m not sure how from these you conclude Papal Bull has no chance.
You need not to be so sensitive and accept a query when you make an incorrect statement.
Backing dodgepots is a sure fire way to the poor house. He has the ability, thats a given but he’s bottled it time and time again. Bit like Keegan and Newcastle (Still breaks my heart).
I wouldn’t go near the pope’s dog…
Incidentally, does anyone know of a link where the race can be watched live, t’would be a pity to miss it?
Try here Reet..www.myp2p.eu/
It worked for the Melbourne cup when all seemed lost, shows ALL the big boxing bouts and the footy every day!. A judicial click of the mouse is all that’s required
You often need to download software though onthesteal..
I use sopcast to watch football – They always have a link up to BF’s coverage, which obviously you have to pay for.
They had the BC showing on there though which was through ESPN.
You often need to download software though onthesteal..
I use sopcast to watch football – They always have a link up to BF’s coverage, which obviously you have to pay for.
They had the BC showing on there though which was through ESPN.
Very true, although the best streams i’ve ever seen didn’t require a Sopcast download. I think we should have a ‘Live streams’ thread in the lounge possibly. They are very helpful and can save untold cash.
English please
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