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The Japan Cup is the hardest race to win outside of Europe, and only the Arc can match its depth. Conduit was a non-threatening 4th a few years ago, you can argue he was a length or two off his best but unlikely he could’ve won in any case. Nakayama Festa almost won the Arc and there are maybe 2 in Japan considered a bit better than him and a few others around his level.
Snow Fairy has won twice looking a class above, but that race is for filly & mares and the best fillies/mares like Buena Vista tend to skip that race on the way to the Japan Cup.
That being said I think Danedream’s the best 12f horse in the world and should win. Pitfalls are the big field (will need a little bit of luck in running), an overly strong pace (the Arc was run solidly but not as fast as most Arcs), travelling, and her patchy form before the Arc.
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That being said I think Danedream’s the best 12f horse in the world and should win. Pitfalls are the big field (will need a little bit of luck in running), an overly strong pace (the Arc was run solidly but not as fast as most Arcs), travelling, and her patchy form before the Arc.
I agree with the first sentence but are you quite sure about the rest? I thought the Arc time was a course record? not just solid but I mean really fast….? Her form coming into the Arc was scintillating, it’s her early season form that was just useful, she improved out of all recognition over the summer. However, her rider rides hard, uses the whip with force and she’s had some tough races under him, this might be one too many. I hope not.
I think Buena Vista is being primed for this again and I can see fillies being right up there – Sarah Lynx in particular after her good win in Canada, she shouldn’t be underestimated. I’m surprised Shareta is in the field, they could have found easier fry for her I would have thought.
It’s a pity Frankel isn’t running Darren – your thread would have run to 12 pages by now
Where is Zenjah when you need him…
HKJC has a preview site to accompany its simulcast:
I agree with the first sentence but are you quite sure about the rest? I thought the Arc time was a course record? not just solid but I mean really fast….? Her form coming into the Arc was scintillating, it’s her early season form that was just useful, she improved out of all recognition over the summer. However, her rider rides hard, uses the whip with force and she’s had some tough races under him, this might be one too many. I hope not.
I’m not sure why I mentioned stamina issues because you’re right the pace of the Arc was strong enough, I think I was a bit tired at the time.
But what I meant was that the pace in the Arc was solid but not as breakneck as it often has been; in other words it was more even than it sometimes has been, when they’ve gone very quick and then slowed down. But it was still a good pace and fast enough to produce a track record, just not suicidally quick that’s all. I don’t think there are any stamina issues but I wouldn’t be too confident if she were stuck 3 wide.
Buena Vista is the danger for me. Has usually had legitimate excuses and such a classy horse.Does anyone know if ATR or RUK will show the race tomorrow morning?
I hope Danedream will run a good race… not sure if she can win. It was a long and hard season and in such a big field you need usually a bit of luck. If she finishes in the first three I would be more than happy.
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Overseas Expert Column for Japan Cup by Naohiro GodaI understand that in any attempt at predicting the winner of the 2011 Japan Cup the crucial question relates to DANEDREAM. Should I select or neglect her?
It is widely recognized that the Japan Cup is a very tough race for three-year-old fillies. While four previous winners of the race, since its inauguration in 1981 as the first international race in Japan, have been female, MAIZY DOATES from the United States in 1981, STANERRA from Ireland in 1983, and Japan’s VODKA in 2009 were all five-year-olds, while HORLICKS from New Zealand, winner in 1989, was six.
Great champions such as ALL ALONG, MAGIC NIGHT, USER FRIENDLY, and VODKA, could not manage to capture the Japan Cup when they tried as three-year-olds. This fact alone suggests that DANEDREAM, a three-year-old filly from Germany, has very little chance on Sunday.
On the other hand, the form of DANEDREAM indicates clearly that she is an extraordinary athlete. Many Europeans told me they had
never seen a three-year-old filly win three 12 furlong (2400m) G1s in a row beating older colts and horses, and her winning margins have been five lengths or more on all three occasions. Her unprecedented achievements in Europe make me think she could be the horse who breaks the mould.Before the Arc I thought she could act well only on soft ground, but DANEDREAM proved her ability on firm going, winning the Arc in race record time.
It is therefore my conclusion that DANEDREAM will be the first three-year-old filly winner of the Japan Cup.
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imo not value though – i reckon Sarah Lynx may run better than her price.
Buena Vista beats Tosen Jordan
ful result and replay to follow here at HKJC:
^she finally got the ride she’d been waiting for – up with the pace rather than from way off….
a well deserved win for Buena Vista…
Replay with post race celebration etc.: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpxYVkrc_J8
Well done Buena Vista. Great win for a great horse. I’m not disappointed with the 6th place for Danedream. She run well, but box 13 was difficult. A. Starke tried to bring his filly into a better position right after the start, but was denied to do so and had so settle in rear of the field. That was not ideal as it wasn’t to go wide around the home turn. She still finished sixth what is a fine achievement. She earned around 150.000 € for that placing. Not too bad. And don’t forget that she had a long and hard year. I think this was just one race too much…
Danedream ran quite a flat race. Didn’t get the ideal run being 3 wide near the tail and swinging wide, but only whacked away in the straight. The horses who beat her were handier and finished equal or better than her, and even Shareta closed off with more purpose.
I’m very glad to hear that she’s likely to remain in training. She has many genuine excuses for this performance like the long trip and long season, so hopefully her performance was due to those factors and not some sort of temperament or something else that suggests inconsistency.
Sectional times outlined on the 4th page here
http://japanracing.jp/_news2011/pdf/111127-02.pdfRace was slowly run but of course Danedream was still entitled to finish much stronger if she was at her best. Buena Vista is a grand horse and great to see her finally win this. The sedate pace was probably a big factor in her sitting so handy, and we know few horses can outsprint her. She’s the best Japan has and would be a great Arc horse.
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