Prix Jacques Le Marois 2019

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This topic contains 23 replies, has 5 voices, and was last updated by  darren83 1 month, 1 week ago.

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  • #1450662

    Frenchy15
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    Kev, that’s not what I said.

    I said “with real purpose”, meaning it’s just one variable amongst a load of other variables.

    I’m not saying I’m right, it’s just my view. I shall pay closer attention to their view and analysis though.

    In the case of KOC though, the sectional analysis suggested he was a warm fav over a mile next time out and now he’s being campaigned over 10F , so something was amiss with the data assumption there

    #1450665
    KevMc
    KevMc
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    The sectionals highlighted he was better than the result.
    Whether he’d be deserving to be a certain price over a certain trip isn’t concrete, that’s where each persons opinion on the data comes in.
    Just like it would do with reading the form of KOC.

    #1450671
    Gingertipster
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    The sectionals highlighted he was better than the result.

    Spot on.

    Correct sectional/pace analysis is a massive edge.

    value is everything
    #1450672
    Gingertipster
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    Can you not see that a horse running the race less efficiently than his rivals deserves an upgrade, Frenchy?

    value is everything
    #1450673
    Gingertipster
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    You could simply deduce from the SJP that Circus Maximus kicked a bit too soon actually, but Ryan wanted to get into a big battle with Too Darn Hot. He was riding purely to beat TDH in my opinion.

    Maybe it proves that if KOC was ridden closer to the pace, he probably would’ve won(bad ride by Adam Kirby?, possibly, but KOC was also held up in the Heron Stakes).

    No, you can not deduce Circus Maximus “kicked a bit too soon”, Frenchy; the sectionals pretty much prove he did not. Sectional of the final 2f being a fair bit faster than the 6f that preceded it. The sectionals within that last two furlongs would need to be massively different to each other for your theory to be true – highly unlikely.

    King Of Comedy is a hold up horse, therefore ridden exactly how you’d expect him to be ridden. Kirby wasn’t to know the good early pace was to slow mid-race. Had they not slowed mid race then KOC’s position would’ve been an advantage – or at least not a disadvantage. Therefore, although the actual run of the race disadvantaged KOC, it can not be described as a “bad ride”.

    Yes, King Of Comedy was held up in the Heron Stakes… And the Heron was also a tactical affair. ie Sectionals of the Heron Stakes indicated KOC’s true ability to be more than the 2 1/2 lengths winning margin. It went some way to confirm he was up to taking on the best… and that proved right at Ascot.

    value is everything
    #1450677

    Frenchy15
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    No, you can not deduce Circus Maximus “kicked a bit too soon”, Frenchy; the sectionals pretty much prove he did not. Sectional of the final 2f being a fair bit faster than the 6f that preceded it. The sectionals within that last two furlongs would need to be massively different to each other for your theory to be true – highly unlikely.

    No I mean in relation to KOC, because KOC was strong at the finish and CM wasn’t. If CM was held onto a little longer he might have finished with the same % difference as KOC on a sectional from 2F. We are assuming that KOC is faster than CM over say ANY 2F distance, but we don’t actually have that exact data do we?

    Can you not see that a horse running the race less efficiently than his rivals deserves an upgrade, Frenchy?

    Yes, I can for sure. That statement is correct, a horse running less efficently than his rivals deserves an upgrade. But how do we determine what “less efficient” is?

    Today, Simon Rowlands is looking at first 6F vs last 2F in a 8F race, but how did he come to that? Why not 5F v 3F or 5.5F v 2.5F, OR what would be better actually and much more accurate is measuring it from the point each individual horse kicks?

    In Statistics, surely if you take a random point to point, the statistics are likely to change depending on where you decide that random point to point is? (this is the part I am not quite getting with Sectionals yet)

    In any case, (I think we agree(and Kev)?! on this point anyway). What we do with that data into the next race is in relation to odds and value of course still and then open to opinion and debate. I took it that KOC chance was not that much more than Watch Me’s and we had 6/4 and 13/2 odds.

    Because the thing about KOC, is that if he is a hold up horse and it looks like he is based on his last 2 runs, what the SJP does prove, is that he is a hostage to the pace. (unless he is a big improver from SJP to the next race).

    Now we will never know as he’s going upto 10F. We could deduce from that, that JG knows he’s a hostage to pace, doesn’t want to run him again over 8F, when he knows he will stay 10F and have a better chance of winning.

    Yes we might upgrade KOC a bit in the SJP, but doesn’t mean he’s more likely to win again at 8F, in fact the sectional (again one could argue) proves my theory that he was so strong at the finish in a stiff Ascot mile plus was inconvenienced by the muddling pace mid race, that he’ll be better over 10F.

    If Simon Rowlands or the other chap has written somewhere that they put their strong ROI down mostly to sectionals, then I would respect that greatly and study it and him a lot more. Has he actually stated that anywhere?

    #1450762
    Gingertipster
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    There is no better sectional times expert than Simon Rowlands, it’s what he does. Obviously he takes in to account other aspects of form, but it is sectional times that give him his greatest edge.

    No I mean in relation to KOC, because KOC was strong at the finish and CM wasn’t. If CM was held onto a little longer he might have finished with the same % difference as KOC on a sectional from 2F. We are assuming that KOC is faster than CM over say ANY 2F distance, but we don’t actually have that exact data do we?

    There are reaons why the final 2 (or 3) furlongs are used for sectional analysis, Frenchy.

    https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/rowley/the-timeform-knowledge-sectional-analysis-872015

    Simon Rowlands:
    Experience and historical data have shown that the most informative sectional juncture on the Flat generally occurs around 25% to 33% from the finish of a race.

    So, in races at up to and including a mile, a final-two-furlong sectional might be “best”, while at nine to 14 furlongs a final-three-furlong sectional might be more appropriate, though the positioning of cameras is likely to dictate matters.

    CM was “strong at the finish”, Frenchy; in that he was finishing faster than he’d run the preceding 6f. It is just that KOC finished faster than CM.

    When early pace is slower than even pace then hores racing further forward have a positional advantage. Point is that in this race Circus Maximus’s winning distance was less than his poitional advantage.

    Had Circus Maximus been “held on to a little longer” and kicked for home with the same distance back to KOC, then the positional advantage would be greater. But is worth pointing out it would also have been a greater test of speed. Circus Maximus’s asset at a mile is stamina, a greater test of speed is highly unlikely to suit Circus Maximus – so in all probability would not have done as well as he did.

    Had CM been “held on to a little longer” and kicked for home alongside KOC (no positional advantage), then the actual sectionals pretty much confirm KOC would’ve beaten him easily.

    If there was a human race where Mr A started the race 3 metres in front of Mr B, then the positional advantage is 3 metres. ie If Mr A beats Mr B by 2 metres then we can rate Mr B as 1 metre better than Mr A. Although a little more complicated it’s the same principle, poitional advantage needs to be taken in to account when rating horses. In a slower run race the one further forward has made his advantage at a time when not having to exert himself (less energy spent). Where as a hold up horse is trying to make up ground at a time when those in front are also quickening (which needs more energy from the hold up horse).

    Ryan Moore judged the pace perfectly, his positional advantage just enough to thwart KOC and TDH’s (on sectional evidence) superior ability.

    Had the pace been strong throughout it would’ve tested stamina further, so possible Circus Maximus would’ve won under those circumstances. But had it been strong throughout there’d be no positional advantage; so we don’t know he would’ve won. What we do pretty much know is – how the race was run – very stongly suggests (imo pretty much proves) King Of Comedy is better than Circus Maximus at a mile.

    value is everything
    #1450765
    Gingertipster
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    Now we will never know as he’s going upto 10F. We could deduce from that, that JG knows he’s a hostage to pace, doesn’t want to run him again over 8F, when he knows he will stay 10F and have a better chance of winning.

    King Of Comedy may well stay 10f, but the speed achieved at Ascot proves he’s fully effective at a mile, Frenchy.

    John Gosden’s record in open Group 1 races is that of a trainer splitting his horses.
    ie JG has an opinion who is his best sprinter, his best miler, best 10f, best 12f and best stayer.
    When Too Darn Hot looked to be going for the 2000 Guineas, Calyx was being aimed at sprint distances.
    When Too Darn Hot was injured he tried to get Calyx ready for the Guineas, but failed.
    When evident Dubai Warrior wasn’t going to make the Derby JG tried to make TDH a Derby candidate – failed.
    When Calyx got injured there was talk of making TDH a sprinter, maybe with King Of Comedy his miler.
    When it was not clear whether Enable would come back to 10f for the International there was talk of King Of Comedy going up to 10f… And when TDH proved he stays a mile King Of Comedy is confirmed for 10f and Enable goes for the 12f Yorkshire Oaks and Arc…
    When Cracksman came back to the Champion Stakes Roaring Lion was made in to a miler/QE2 horse.
    etc etc.

    With no other top 10f horse it is not surprising JG is trying to make King Of Comedy a 10f horse. imo Nothing to do with his ability at a mile. Even if King Of Comedy proves himself at 10f at York – if soft conditions at Ascot favour stamina at 10f I wouldn’t be surprised if KOC comes back to the QE2.

    value is everything
    #1450770

    darren83
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    LINE OF DUTY 12/1

    Comes back to a 1m after runs in dante and derby not a strong race this and with trainer record in France think suprise a few

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