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Has anyone seen any comments regarding whether Watch Me will definitely run in this on Sunday? Had a good look through this and I’m really keen to take the 13/2 on offer at the moment.
She looked so good at Royal Ascot last time out and has better form than King of Comedy who is priced up on mostly potential surely at 6/4 and must rate a cracking EW bet.
With You, Skardu, Shaman, I Can Fly all look a bit short of what’s usually required to win this. Romanised is also interesting at 5/1, but I just get the feeling he might be susceptible to one of the 3 year olds improving past him.
Found a quote
https://www.racingtv.com/news/deauville-date-next-for-watch-me
I noticed also Romanised has a pace maker in Success Days, so should be a decent run race, which will suit Romanised and King of Comedy, but if Watch Me is ridden the same as Royal Ascot, she should be right up in the pace and the other two will have to come and beat her. She was strong at the finish at Royal Ascot, travelled beautifully, is by Olympic Glory who was twice placed in this, I can’t find any negatives with her really for a 13/2 shot.
Watch Me 13/2
When I heard King Of Comedy‘s price is 6/4 I thought it very poor. But having looked at the entries in truth doesn’t have much to beat. Not really any true Open Group 1 quality racehorses in the field. Priced up not only on potential but also what he’s done or would’ve done with a clear run at Ascot. Second to Circus Maximus and beating stable companion Too Darn Hot. With what happened in the Sussex; what would be his price had (as should’ve if able to get through/keep straight) King Of Comedy won the SJP? That looks much the best recent form here. Personally, I wouldn’t like to lay any bigger than 6/4. Skardu has been beaten in enough Group 1’s now to know his merit. Shaman wasn’t that far (2 1/2 lengths) behind the SJP principles. Nearest finish and although has something to find on KOC, might be interested in him as an outsider come Sunday. Study Of Man looks a middle distance horse. Romanised is a Group 1 winner but in name only, pretty much established now as a good Group 2 horse, not able to beat good Group 1 horses. Form of most fillies and mares races aren’t good enough to win Open races. Polydream has won in Open company but seems incapable of 2018 form. Return to form by her trainer might be worth looking for; but is yet to prove herself at a mile anyway. Nothing in With You‘s form to sugget she’s up to this grade. Half length second in Rothschild. Watch Me is of a similar standard. However, Coraonation was certainly a personal best and reasonable prospects of better to come. I agree if you can get on I suggest taking the 13/2 Watch Me.
Value Is EverythingI do have reservations on King of Comedy though GT. I agree it doesn’t seem that deep a race, so maybe the 6/4 is fair enough, but be interested to hear your thoughts on this….
1) He has been a bit immature in his last 2 runs, it remains to be seen if that means there is more improvement to come or that he’s just a bit quirky.
2) With his run at Royal Ascot, he wasn’t really blocked at any point and it took him a while to really respond. He got a crack with the whip 2F out which made him veer left(again a bit concerning) and then he was strongest at the finish(Ascots stiff finish), almost to me, giving the impression he might be better over 10F. It’s a theory, but the morning Too Darn Hot was confirmed for the Sussex Stakes and KOC began to drift, his odds went blue across the board on Oddschecker for the Juddmonte.
3) I do wonder whether he looked a bit flattered at the end of the St James Palace, I’ve watched it back over and over now and Circus Maximus was hard at it, nearly 3F out, Skardu not far off the same and Too Darn Hot as we now know was running over too stiff a mile. One could deduce from the finish, that those 3 had done their running and KOC hadn’t and thus it looked like it was more of an eye catching run than it actually was.
4) Adding more weight to the theory of 2 and 3, from about the 2F pole he picks up pretty nicely, but once he draws alongside Skardu about 1.5F out, he runs along side him for about a whole furlong. He is still drifting slightly at this point, but he certainly isn’t a much better sprinter than Skardu on that basis, he can just sprint for longer and we should know pretty much now what Skardu’s level is.
Im summary, yes he didn’t really run straight and was a bit awkward, but it wasn’t as if he was really blocked or that he really picked up suddenly, he just seems to keep going and going, which might mean he is better over 10F.
It’s of course all about the likelyhood of whether he is going to improve and alongside Watch Me, he seems one of the most likeliest improvers. I was close to having him as a main bet, but I prefer a much more solid horse to go in at 6/4 usually.
I can’t leave him unbacked however, so it will be a saver on him, with Watch Me as the main bet.
I’m a little reluctant to write off Romanised just yet as well though. He has shown improved form this year(from his form after the Irish 2000) and he didn’t get a great run through in either the Lockhinge or Queen Anne. A pace maker in as well to make sure he gets the race to suit, in this field I think there’s still a bit of value at 11/2, so I’m looking at Romanised and KOC as saver bets, but will probably wait until Saturday/Sunday.
1) He has been a bit immature in his last 2 runs, it remains to be seen if that means there is more improvement to come or that he’s just a bit quirky.
“Ouirky” is perhaps overdoing it a bit. Certainly races with head a little higher than ideal, a position that can be a sign of quirkiness. However, in everything he’s done so far imo has always run on genuinely enough. Immaturity has probably also been exaggerated for that supposed quirkiness; but for whatever reason it’s important to remember – from what we know – he’s still improving.
2) With his run at Royal Ascot, he wasn’t really blocked at any point and it took him a while to really respond. He got a crack with the whip 2F out which made him veer left(again a bit concerning) and then he was strongest at the finish(Ascots stiff finish), almost to me, giving the impression he might be better over 10F. It’s a theory, but the morning Too Darn Hot was confirmed for the Sussex Stakes and KOC began to drift, his odds went blue across the board on Oddschecker for the Juddmonte.
Depends what is meant by “blocked”. Although I peronally would not describe the race as slowly run, it did have three parts, fast slow fast. At the end of the second part, KOC was in behind horses just as the winner kicked (going from that slow to fast) and therefore KOC at a positional disadvantage… And only lost out by a diminishing neck. May well stay 10f, but had to show speed in order to get in to the race from further back than those around him in a race not condusive to hold up tactics. Veering left not what you want to see, but didn’t stop him accelerating with purpoe.
3) I do wonder whether he looked a bit flattered at the end of the St James Palace, I’ve watched it back over and over now and Circus Maximus was hard at it, nearly 3F out, Skardu not far off the same and Too Darn Hot as we now know was running over too stiff a mile. One could deduce from the finish, that those 3 had done their running and KOC hadn’t and thus it looked like it was more of an eye catching run than it actually was.
4) Adding more weight to the theory of 2 and 3, from about the 2F pole he picks up pretty nicely, but once he draws alongside Skardu about 1.5F out, he runs along side him for about a whole furlong. He is still drifting slightly at this point, but he certainly isn’t a much better sprinter than Skardu on that basis, he can just sprint for longer and we should know pretty much now what Skardu’s level is.
Im summary, yes he didn’t really run straight and was a bit awkward, but it wasn’t as if he was really blocked or that he really picked up suddenly, he just seems to keep going and going, which might mean he is better over 10F.
No Frenchy; although sometimes horses gain at the end of a race purely from staying on better; it’s not true in this case. When a race looks how you describe we turn to sectionals. Simon Rowlands evidence points to KOC doing 23.16 seconds for the last 2f. Meaning KOC was definitely finishing fast. Sectionals of all the runners strongly suggest (I’d go as far as pretty much prove) ROC would’ve won had everything been equal. ie The opposite of being “flattered”. That said, the run of the race on Saturday may not be equal either.
Value Is EverythingI’m a little reluctant to write off Romanised just yet as well though. He has shown improved form this year(from his form after the Irish 2000) and he didn’t get a great run through in either the Lockhinge or Queen Anne. A pace maker in as well to make sure he gets the race to suit, in this field I think there’s still a bit of value at 11/2, so I’m looking at Romanised and KOC as saver bets, but will probably wait until Saturday/Sunday.
I wouldn’t write Romanised off either, Frenchy; even if he’s just of high Group 2 standard. Yes, is probably a little better than Newbury and/or Ascot, but only a little and imo would not have won either race. If KOC is below form and Watch Me does not make the necessary improvement it’s very possible Romanised’s form will be good enough. Just that personally I’d want a bigger price at this stage.
Good luck.
Value Is EverythingThats amazing news! Suddenly the 13/2 on Watch Me looks a fantastic price now! I’m on KOC at 14s for the Juddmonte as well after I saw all the blue on Oddschecker that time.
I personally speaking, don’t think sectionals prove anything at the moment, well sorry, they do prove something, that KOC was the fastest horse over the last 2 furlongs. Does that prove he is the best in the race though? I don’t know about that from my humble opinion. For a start it currently looks just at furlong to furlong. Circus Maximus went for home earlier than KOC did in the SJP, so how about the sectionals from 2.5F to 0.5F pole? We can’t see those. Nor can we see the sectional from 1.5F to 0.5F when all horses should be flat out at maximums, as that would probably say he’s the same pace as Skardu at maximum pace. There’s surely just too many variables and not enough data yet that go into one particular horse race to draw big conclusions from sectionals. Horses kicking at different moments, horses in particular positions, what would happen with a slightly different pace is argueable, exactly how much a horse has left in the tank is impossible to know, etc etc.
You could simply deduce from the SJP that Circus Maximus kicked a bit too soon actually, but Ryan wanted to get into a big battle with Too Darn Hot. He was riding purely to beat TDH in my opinion.
Maybe it proves that if KOC was ridden closer to the pace, he probably would’ve won(bad ride by Adam Kirby?, possibly, but KOC was also held up in the Heron Stakes).
How do we know from a sectional analysis if that statement above is true though? How do we know that if KOC was ridden closer to the pace, he would actually have won? Maybe he’d have tired earlier? It just proves KOC could’ve ridden a bit faster to begin with, might have helped him just looking at his race only, but then that’s assuming all the other horses wouldn’t have improved by changing the pace. Maybe they’d all have improved a bit. I think Phoenix of Spain would’ve, as he was travelling better than anyone 2.5F out, but didn’t really pick up. Had Jamie Spencer got him out in front and got him to go on, that surely would’ve helped his chance. Maybe he’d have won.
This quickest way from A to B thing, being a constant, that works on a piece of mathematical paper, but that’s all it is. A mathematical equation.
I just don’t see yet, how sectional analysis can be used in the future with real purpose to place bets, it just helps us understand a particular race, a little bit more in terms of what pace it went.
In the end, to my naked eye, KOC looked like he might need 10F and now he’s going straight to a 10F race. The sectional analysis just confused that situation.
I think when the data really comes, it would definitely help. For example, I’d like to know the fastest 2F each horse races in a particular race at ANY time. Not from furlong to furlong. IE, how fast can a horse run over 2F from the moment it kicks? That’s good analysis, but you can’t see that from sectionals. That’s also varibale though, as it depends on a lot of things, ground, pace etc, so by the time you’ve built up enough analysis about a horse, it’s already retired long ago.
That’s just my humble opinion on it.
but the morning Too Darn Hot was confirmed for the Sussex Stakes and KOC began to drift, his odds went blue across the board on Oddschecker for the Juddmonte.
Followed this market for quite a while and a couple of weeks before all the 40’s and 33’s were taken in one day about 2 weeks before that. Funny how it has ended up eh?
If you question sectionals’ success then how come Simon Rowlands ROI is around 40% this season? Hugh Taylor also uses sectionals extensively, he’s the best tipster in the game.
Is that true Kev, do they both say their profit is down to sectional analysis or that they just use it to help?
Followed this market for quite a while and a couple of weeks before all the 40’s and 33’s were taken in one day about 2 weeks before that. Funny how it has ended up eh?
He’s been underestimated so much this season, I had him at 40/1 for the SJP before his Heron Stakes run.
JG must rate him really highly, he looks like he’s going Juddmonte/Irish Champion/English Champion
It’s a paramount part of their betting, when they put up horses it’s frequently backed up by sectional quotes etc.
They won’t rely on it exclusively of course, they do use form etc to increase opinion.
I’m no sectionalista but i definitely can’t have sectionals as being useless mathematical data.
I don’t think I said anywhere that it’s useless mathematical data?! I think it helps as one variable to put into a whole range of variables, but I don’t see that it creates an edge yet. Maybe I need to start following these guys more though! What’s the best way to do that?
If it can’t be used to place bets it’s as good as useless information is it not?
The edge has been, and it’s currently going/gone.Simon & Hugh work for ATR.
Kev, that’s not what I said.
I said “with real purpose”, meaning it’s just one variable amongst a load of other variables.
I’m not saying I’m right, it’s just my view. I shall pay closer attention to their view and analysis though.
In the case of KOC though, the sectional analysis suggested he was a warm fav over a mile next time out and now he’s being campaigned over 10F , so something was amiss with the data assumption there
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