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The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Jackpot

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  • #20247
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    Hi all. I’m getting much more interested in the jackpot since Fred took over the Tote and breathed some life into it. My query is if there is an easy formula for calculating the probability of landing a multiple bet by inputting the odds of each of the horses chosen in each leg in a 100% book?
    Intuitively you would think it was a case of multiplying the total percentages expressed as decimals- eg 0.45 x 0.76 x 0.25 etc… is that correct?

    #378206
    seanryan
    Member
    • Total Posts 41

    CH ,

    WD on your recent win .

    If the 100% books reflected the horses prob of winning then your formula should calculate the prob of having a winning bet.

    I am only guessing where you might have been going with this but I suspect that jackpot pools will be very skewed towards favs. If you had some data on behaviour of pool bettors (i.e. the typical profile of horses selected (by price/prob)and you could probably get some steer on this by examining the number of winners in previous pools) then you might then be able to model something to identify overpriced combinations.

    Looks like a tricky task/job for a developer/bot.

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