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Ivy Creek is 2/2, winning both over a mile.
On his maiden, Airbuss and Conservation got into 2nd and 3rd, with Conservation going on to flop in a 1mile Maiden at Yarmouth 2 weeks later, finishing 6 1/4L behind Pearly King, and Conservation’s form going into the race was very poor as well.
Airbuss went on to win at Epsom over 9f, but again, his form coming into the race was very poor, running twice on AW finishing nowhere both times.
And then at Sandown 2 weeks ago, he beat Tell by a head (who strangely has no form on the RP) – Tell is also by Green Desert and may have struggled to get the mile, but the third West of Amarillo was flopping in Group 2s and 3s last year, and has upped his trip and dropped his class and still not managed to get the win.
I’m not taken by him at all, certainly not at 2/1, and I fancy something else to grab the win. ART DECO is a horse I have outlined for the Derby based on breeding and previous form, and only finished 1/2L behind City of Troy over 7f at Doncaster – yet City of Troy is 9/4 2nd fav after flopping twice after that? :o
Art Deco at 9/1 looks the bet for me, and Ivy Creek a huge lay. I also think at that price, Mubtaker must also be worth a big of a lay. An ageing horse, he was very lucky to hold off Munsef at Newbury, although in all fairness that may have just been down to it being his first run of the season.
Ivy Creek and Mubtaker are my lays though. Thoughts anyone?
Things not going too well Martin? You should have followed my advice about Primary and Papal Bull today :biggrin:
You fancy anything else today? Am in the chat room if you’re interested
I think Dubai Typhoon is overpriced at 20s (RP forecast). Dam placed in Epsom and Curragh Oaks. Beaten 4.5 lengths LTO by Asset at KEM in the Easter Stakes where the 2nd in that race (Royal Power) has since ran 2nd in a £86K Gr2 in CAP (although admittedly Asset didn’t run well last Saturday).
It was just the rain that got into the ground that killed the ground a bit me thinks for Asset.
Just looking further at Art Deco, Best Alibi was 7th in their 1st race, and look how much he has progressed. RPR is now 106.
While City of Troy’s RPR 2 runs after beating Art Deco is an incredible 1 point higher than it was after beating him.
I’m not in a rush to lay Ivy Creek Jackane, but I’ll definitely be laying Mubtaker tomorrow. For some reason I don’t rate this horse and felt it was very lucky to hold on last time. If the racing post going forecast is right GD-FM(I don’t know what to believe anymore with regards to going) I won’t lay it for as much as I would if it rains. If it does soften up then I fancy the Whistling Teal but Mubtaker is no certainty whatever the going and at 1/2 you can’t lose that much if you’re wrong.;) I’m not quite sure what Mubtaker will think of Chester either as it hasn’t raced there before and it may just be caught out.
As for the 2:20 race i won’t be laying Ivy Creek because I think its the right price on what Its done. If City of Troy was overbacked I may lay it for a place as it seemed to have few excuses last time. The only danger I see to Ivy Creek is Art Deco but its not a race I’ll be backing either in.
Good luck with those two though Jacko. (can I call you that?) What are your thoughts about Easy Air in the 1:50?
The Whistling Teal was also the one I was looking at. Munsef just took ages to get going that day, and had he quickened 1 or 2 strides earlier would have won. Cost me 45 quid :angry:
You may call me Jacko yes :biggrin:
Ah, Easy Air – the Dunlop – Dettori horse. Looked at this race – both runs have come on the AW which doesn’t fill me with confidence, but he is by Zafonic and will appreciate the quick ground. I think 7/4 is too skinny.
I’d much prefer Silidan, who was beaten by Mulaqat last time out, and also won his first run last season. He will love the quick ground, and at 11/4, a far better bet I think. He’s also got the best draw – great for him to make all, tactics which have suited this week certainly, with Admiral and Time On both winning from the front. I could come up with more examples probably but I’ve only watched 4 races from Chester so far! Have recorded them though and will get stuck into them during the Lingfield Derby Trial :biggrin:
I feel Easy Air is the most likely winner but agree the price isn’t too good. The fitness of Silidan must be taken on trust as it may need it which is what puts me off it.
Quote: from jackane24 on 7:20 pm on May 11, 2006[br]Things not going too well Martin? You should have followed my advice about Primary and Papal Bull today :biggrin:
You fancy anything else today? Am in the chat room if you’re interested<br>
It’s amazing what endless revision seems to do for morale. I don’t lay but can guarantee if I did then it’d win lol
I wouldn’t be laying Mubtaker tomorrow. I feel the horse will make all under Richard Hills.
Well it’s a small loss for a good gain. I just think in his ageing years that he is losing stamina and speed, though has kept his fitness as shown at Newbury. The Whistling Teal could well be the one to be on.
I like Ivy Creek a lot and think he will take a bit of beating.<br>Stable always does well at this meeting and I liked the way he knuckled down to it at Sandown.
Also think Champions Gallery is overpriced in the first.
I am also with Ivy Creek here, there are question marks over all the other main contenders.  He has a good draw and should handle the track, as everyone knows big factors at Chester…..The one drawback that jinx Holt has put him up as his nap.:o
(Edited by Mitchy at 1:16 pm on May 12, 2006)
Stav, that’s a fair enough argument. I don’t think he’ll be good enough today, and this may well be because he is not good enough, or possibly that he is hungover from Sandown 2 weeks ago.
I’ve sided with Cousteau at 12/1, 5th in the Craven on today’s ground, and will love the step up in trip. He was also beaten by Papal Bull over 7f by 2L, who consequently won the Chester Vase fairly well yesterday on the same surface.
I do like Art Deco a lot, but unless they are spectacular horses, winners of this tend to need a prep run. But his RPR is very good considering, and as I forgot i was going to back him, I have to pop down to the bookies again in a sec :o
I’ve also gone for Silindar in the 1st at 10/3, as well as jack Rackham in the 6.15 at hamilton, and Zarath something something in the 7.45 at Hamilton. Beaten on the photo finish by Speciosa, ran very poorly LTO on Heavy ground. Return to firm ground will suit loads, and should find the distance well within himself. 8/1 is a cracking price.
Everyone happy then Jackane. Art Deco beats Ivy Creek by a neck with City of Troy unplaced. I decided to back both Art Deco and Ivy Creek and layed City of Troy for a place at 1.5. Hopefully the rain softened ground will find Mubtaker out and then everyone is happy!:biggrin:
Never saw the race ivy creek was a major loser for me though, did I see right that art deco was as big as 18.5 just b4 the off on exchanges?
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