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I think Ginger and MrE should have a showdown
one selection a day for one month
winner gets a night with gamble
loser gets a night with MatronCharles Darwin to conquer the World
Ouch….. a show of nightmare proportions….. Ginge as the Alien and me as Ripley…. ooohh, Matron…. nappies at the ready, but no bed baths….
And whilst we are at it, we are talking staking and systems, I’m not a tipster and nor do I aspire to be, I just wanna see what staking ideas the multitude come out with, but it appears that the answer is nothing….
Mr E
I need to get the selections right first MrE before a staking plan can be devised
I play a green up strategy on the football where you lay the draw and green up after a goal.
Purwell is not keen
Roll the stake forward for 4 or 5 wins then reset back to the original stake
I was never so pleased to see a Manchester United goal last week against Fulham in added on time.
Of all my bets this brings small profits.. it carry’s a risk as the return is less than the stake but I’m into their money now when my luck does run outCharles Darwin to conquer the World
Am only having an occasional bet at the moment Nathan.
Still doing some work on our new home.
Yet to renew my Timeform subscription too.
So am not tipping at the moment.Value Is Everything“I just wanna see what staking ideas the multitude come out with, but it appears that the answer is nothing”….
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Have you looked up Kelly Criterion staking, MrE?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
Value Is EverythingHi GT…. yeah, I have seen that one and attempted to put it into practice, not easy and far too time consuming for me. I like my progressions/regressions to be of a more simple nature… “Maria” (backing, not laying) springs to mind where I would place bets according to the price at the time of betting, nice and easy, but misses out on Value.
Then I thought that maybe I was getting too caught up in value, after all is said and done, it’s a hobby and I am not in need of the additional income….but I did spend months sitting in front of this screen, watching Betfair prices close to the “off” and grab better prices at the bookie…. PP and Corals kicked my arse for that foray into “value betting”…..
I started to find that looking for value was too hard and needs to be left to those with the “know how”, so I opted for a really simplistic approach after trying different strategies…. now I find that I’m happy just banging on a % of my bank, nice and comfortable and so it suits me down to the ground.
I’m lucky that I have time to “play” with different strategies and ideas…. and those Excel sheets are a boon, so easy to apply the different filters, I have never had a lot of problems with making my selections because there are a plethora of sites out there to help, it was (and still is) the staking that causes the “itch”…..but I’m happy at present unless any of the members has something new….
MrE
Certainly no need for “sitting in front of this screen” MrE. Whether it’s on betfair or oddschecker By “value” I don’t necessarily mean taking the best odds of all the bookmakers and exchanges. Just because the odds are the best available does not make them value. ie If a horse is odds-on with every bookmaker bar one who is going Evens… If the punter believes that horse has a less than 50% chance of winning, then that Evens is NOT value. Gone are the days I could shop around for the best price anyway.
What I mean by value is if I believe a horse has a 25% (fair 3/1) chance, I’ll add a small margin for error and only bet if able to get 7/2 or greater. Therefore, if all available odds are between 11/4 and 4/1… Yet the 4/1 is not available to me… I’ll take the 7/2 because although not the “best odds” it is still value – because at level stakes a 25% Strike Rate @ 7/2 will result in profit.
As said, imo staking plans should be all about how much chance and how much value the punter believes is in the bet.
I am a naturally cautious person myself so…
My own latest staking plan is this:STAKING PLAN:
My opinion of the horse’s percentage chance of winning…
Minus the available odds in percentage terms…
Times that figure by 10…
Plus my opinion of the horse’s percentage chance of winning…
Times (Number of thousands of pounds in the betting bank divided by 10)The last line means:
For a betting Bank of £10,000 because there are 10 thousands, 10 divided by 10 = 1. Therefore it’’s x 1.
For a betting bank of £11,000 it is 11, ‘/, 10 = 1.1 therefore x 1.1.
For £12,000 it’s x 1.2
For £7,000 it’s x 0.7 etc.I’ll give examples of a £10,000 betting bank as it’s easier to see how much they’d be for a £1,000, £100,000 bank and easier to understand how the percentages alter the stake.
Something I believe has a 4/1 fair 20% chance available @ 5/1 16.7%
20 – 16.7 = 3.3
3.3 x 10 = 33
33 + 20 = 53
£53 @ 5/1 Returns £318:00 and Profit £265:00
If it were a betting bank of £12,000 it would be 53 x 1.2 = £63.60 staked.
If £8,000 it would be £53 x 0.8 = £42.40 staked. etc…if bigger (better) value is available:
Something I believe has a 4/1 fair 20% chance available @ 6/1 14.3%
20 – 14.3 = 5.7
5.7 x 10 = 57
57 + 20 = 77
£77 @ 6/1 Returns £539:00 and Profit £462:00
If it were a betting bank of £15,000 it would be 77 x 1.5 = £115.50 staked.
If £4,000 bank it’s 77 x 0.4 = £30.80 staked.…or if even bigger (better still) value is available:
Something I believe has a 4/1 fair 20% chance available @ 7/1 12.5%
20 – 12.7 = 7.3
7.3 x 10 = 73
73 + 20 = 93
£93 @ 7/1 Returns £744:00 and Profit £651:00
If £20,000 in the betting bank it would be 93 x 2 = £186 staked.
If £100,000 bank then 93 x 10 = £930 staked.Value Is EverythingVery succinct GT, but that was always going to be a problem for me…. I fully understand your explanation and concur, but it bodes the problem of how does one ascertain what price a horse should be.
I’m a throw back and the only way that I have ever found towards pricing up my selection, is very crude, I look and see how many “dangers” that I think there is (or half dangers) and then add half a point for the rest of the field.
Example…. I see 3 main rivals that I’m afraid of + 3 more with half a chance, I allocate 4.5pts…. there is an outside chance that one that I’ve discarded will pop up and spoil the party, so I add another half a point for the “field”, now I’m left with my expected “value” price as 5/1.
This has been a pretty poor medium at getting “value” and I fall short more times than I am successful…. yes, I pick a fair amount of winners, but in this intance, they are not even close to 5/1, I’m lucky if I get 5/2.
So, unless someone can point a way to ascertain what price a selection should be, I’m still lost….What I have been doing well at, is getting better prices than Betfair SP by waiting just before the “off”…. it was mooted several years ago that Betfair is a true reflection of the chance of each horse/dog etc, so I have several screens open and all bookies odds displayed, when I spotted a bookie that offered bigger odd, in I went. I had a good run, but as with all things betting, the cloudburst was just around the corner and two bookies gave me the elbow, so that’s buggered that up. There is another bookie on the block that offers the same odds as the major bookies, I may have to try them.
So GT, I’m still looking for that pot of Gold, but the rainbow keeps moving….. and the older I get, the less effort I get to put in. I’m into a few hobbies (other than betting)…
and I spend more time building and printing models these days, I no longer feel the “need” to continue with spreadsheets etc, I’m finding it hard work keeping those things updated.
This is a long post, but I think that a lot of guys are in the same boat, whether it be work, partners, kids, everything needs your attention and I was interested in anything (staking or otherwise) that will free up my already limited time…..
MrE
“how does one ascertain what price a horse should be”?
You’re going to regret asking that, MrE. LOL
To answer it fully would take 100 pages.
The brief answer is the same way bookmakers do before offering their early prices. If it is possible for an odds-compiler it is possible for a knowledgeable punter. Bookies odds compilers go through the form and work out what he believes is the percentage chance of each horse in the race for a 100% book. The bookie then adds his mark up to those percentages and converts them to odds.There are probably quite a few TRFers whose knowledge of the form book is better than odds compilers. But unfortunately that is only half the story. To succeed (and this is just as important as having the knowledge) a punter also needs to be able to evaluate that form into chance better than the odds compiler. It does take time per race, but if punters have a limited amount of time to study they can cut down on the number of races studied. Punters do need a good form “book”, I subscribed to Timeform Race Passes and will do so again when returning to betting seriously. As odds compilers themselves know, it is far easier and quicker to evaluate the form with Timeform’s help.
If short on time just work out one race a day. If having some previous knowledge of the form of the horses prior to studying (eg in a Group 1) then an 8 runner race can often be worked out in less than 20 minutes. I myself seldom bet in more than four races in a day. Taking account of race distance and going – incl. if necessary breeding. Best (master) rating and / or what rating the horse is probably capable of given the conditions. Sometimes by looking at individual ratings of each race I can work out how much below best it’s likely to be at a particular distance / going. Speed and stamina just as important as staying the distance or acting on the ground. Likely pace and who it is likely to favour (again speed and stamina). Temperament – an under-rated aspect of form, both good and bad temperaments including consistency. If a horse has the best form but is unlikely to show it then it rarely has the best chance of winning. Trainer form -something that’s made me quite a bit over the last three decades – less so now it’s better understood and more well known. Improving horses and those on the downgrade – important in any race but obviously particularly handicaps. Jockey -although is imo over-rated by many, a particularly good jockey can mean the horse is more likely to run to form or a good apprentice for the allowance. Draw – on straight courses can be just as much about where the pace is. Left or right-handed. Record of both trainer and horse first time out, horse’s record at that time of year, wind surgery, if NH then how well the horse jumps. etc etc.
I don’t allocate a definite importance to each aspect of form because their significance will be different for different horses. For one horse it will be more about being out of form, another the going, another distance, another pace and another trainer form etc. So marking a particular aspect of form out of 10 (or whatever) doesn’t work. It’s more about the strengths and weaknesses of each horse and forming an overall (percentage) opinion of its chance.
Once I’ve studied each horse and (for things I may not remember) make notes of the positives and negatives of each horse… I start evaluating the form. Working out the horses chances, numbering them from 1 (best) all the way down to the worst. Then the percentages; sometimes beginning with who I’ve got as the favourite, eg if believing it to have as good a chance of winning than losing it must have a 50% chance. In bigger fields it’s sometimes easier to start with the worst horse and ask myself how much better chance does the next horse up have?
Often I play the horses against each other. If believing the best two had almost as good a chance as each other and the two combined had a tad more than the combined chance of the others; I might have them as 27% (fair 11/4) and 25% (fair 3/1). The pair together having 52%.
Or in a four horse race where I believe horse B has three quarters the chance of A, one and a half times C and three times D… And that C has half the chance of A, and double of D… And D has a quarter the chance of A. Or to put it another way, horse A has the same chance as four D’s, horse B of three D’s and C of two D’s. The only way that works out percentage-wise to 100% is:
A: 40% (fair 6/4), B: 30% (almost fair 9/4), C: 20% (fair 4/1) and D: 10% (fair 9/1).
If then the best prices available to me are: A 5/4, B 2/1, C 7/2 and D 12/1… Then at level stakes a 40% strike rate on my 5/4 bets, 30% strike rate on my 2/1 and 20% SR on 7/2 would all result in a loss. Whereas a 10% SR on my 12/1 shots would achieve a healthy profit, So D is the bet despite in my own opinion having by far the worst chance. In reality it is not as easy as 40, 30, 20, 10, but it’s easier than you may think. In reality more like deciding whether (A) has a little bit more or less than double the chance of C etc. Adding the figures up and if over or under 100% looking at it again, and again and again until 100% is reached.
Value Is Everything“I have several screens open and all bookies odds displayed, when I spotted a bookie that offered bigger odd, in I went. I had a good run, but as with all things betting, the cloudburst was just around the corner and two bookies gave me the elbow, so that’s buggered that up”.
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If bookmakers think you’re arbing – whether you are or not – they’ll soon close accounts down.
Value Is EverythingBloody hell GT, is that a “quick” answer…..
In all fairness mate, that is a cracking explanation after I read it the third time….
but it is exactly what I meant when I said that doing all that work for just a couple of races per day is beyond my capabilities, I am but a mere mortal and I prefer the easier step of letting others do the hard work on my behalf and just cherry pick whatever suits me.
On the horses I have three main systems, each of these system give me 10pts profit per month, 30pts a month is like magic, but amongst all that profit there is so much dross and as you would surmise, most of the crap are the “shorties”. I have losing runs well into the 30’s but if I cull the short prices, it lowers the LLR only a little bit and seriously effects my bottom line, this was the reason that I posed the question about staking in the beginning. It takes a serious amount of time to finalise these selections and I’ll have no life left if I started to put the extra effort in that you do.
But you have given me food for thought in your comment on concentrating on two or three races a day…. I have tried thinning my selections out so that I have less to work on, but am always concerned about losing the winners that go with it…. I guess I’m just a greedy old sod.
I think that I was after the impossible GT, I was rather hoping that someone had yet another “magic staking bullet” that would be a shortcut, I definitely don’t want more work.Your bit about the bookies not liking arbing was spot on, I wasn’t actually arbing, but they must have thought that I was because I was constantly beating ISP, I must have got “flagged” for that…. and it wasn’t as though I took ’em for a lot of money, I was probably only gaining a quarter of a point and I’m only a £10 punter, but they still hammered that nail into my coffin….
MrE
Doubt bookmakers are concerned with a quarter or half point here and there, MrE. I was once on a panel previewing the Grand National sat next to a bookie’s representative. In the interval I took the opportunity of asking him why my account with them had been closed? It isn’t particularly a matter of the punter making good money. He told me they were no different to any other bookmaker. If the punter beats SP by an average of over 20% his account will be closed. Because even if that punter is not in profit he soon will be. Whereas a punter not achieving that 20% figure who is currently showing a profit will not be closed, because he will soon be in deficit.
Although these days rather than officially closing accounts I find bookmakers instead severely restrict them to such small stakes they’d just as well be closed. I suppose it looks better for them on their records. For some bets on outsiders I’ve been restricted to an amount that was actually less than their advertised “minimum bet”.
Value Is EverythingIs twenty or thirty minutes study time really too much “hard work” for big profits?
Value Is EverythingNo staking plan is going to make good a bad system / method of gambling, MrE.
All it can do is enhance profits of a good system / method.Value Is Everything
“A staking plan cannot turn poo into gold”… you’ve just thrown my own mantra back at me GT….
In all honesty GT, I don’t really have a problem with my staking, it was an effort to stir up some interest and motivate some members to post a few ideas… or derogatory comments, anything would have done, but ’tis just you and me. I knew this place was dead on it’s feet, but thought that perhaps it needed a catalyst, or just a spark to ignite smouldering embers, but the embers have been peed on, not enough fuel left to keep striking the tinder box.
It’s a shame, it was once a thriving community where the dumb people met the stupid ones, but it was fun and I found it profitable… perhaps it was taking the mick out of old Billy the Skirt that made it enjoyable…
Thanks for the helpful advice GT and thanks for at least wasting your time and giving this thread the light of day, but I think it probably time to let this particular dead body continue to decompose.
I’ll probably stick my nose in now and again, but should I not, then I wish you GT and all the other forum devotees, a very Happy Christmas and a really stonking and profitable 2024…..
MrE
Some bewildering figures there but
AQUDUCT 2043
Just Katherine
Each way
Not convinced raging sea can turn around a 1.5 lengths defeat on these terms
Raging sea
Win
and I spend more time building and printing models these days, I no longer feel the “need” to continue with spreadsheets etc, I’m finding it hard work keeping those things updated.
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