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Cheers Colin.
Suppose any positive moves are irrelevant enough at this stage. March is when it will count!
An Siorrac out for the season
For **** Sake!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ENDA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dont tell me the most promising Hunter chaser in decades may never make it to the festival
Bad week for the thread with Hurricane Fly all but ruled out as well. That’s the pitfalls of antepost betting I suppose. Time to get back on the horse!
Alaivan Triumph Hurdle – 5pts win @ 7/1 (VC Bet)
Should have a straightforward task against Cross Appeal on Stephens Day and should harden his position at the head of the Triumph market even further. Aga Khan bred horses have a great recent record in the race and this fellow is in the ideal yard if we’re talking Cheltenham.
Rite Of Passage Neptune Investments Novices Hurdle – 3pts win @ 20/1 (Coral)
Probably going to make this my last antepost bet for a while. DK thought this horse was a banker for the Champion Bumper last year and he couldn’t believe it when Dunguib beat him so easily. He even told Phillip Fenton that he should consider the Melbourne Cup for Dunguib!
I can’t see him going down the two mile route and taking on Dunguib again over timber. I reckon he’ll get the 2m5 trip no problem. He galloped Donnas Palm (Meade’s idea of a Champion Hurdle outsider) into submission in the November Handicap. That was two miles in heavy ground around a galloping track like Leopardstonwn. 2m5 over hurdles on decent ground at Cheltenham shouldn’t be too much of a problem for him.
DK’s record at the festival isn’t great given the calibre of horses from the flat that he has sent jumping. This lad has supposedly schooled very well though and he should have a straightforward debut over the sticks in the first at Leopardstown on St Stephens’ Day.
Antepost portfolio so far:
[b:38rfc36w]Dunguib Supreme Novices Hurdle – 10pts win @ 5/2
Dunguib Supreme Novices Hurdle – 10pts win @ 5/2
Dunguib Supreme Novices Hurdle – 10pts win @ 2/1[/b:38rfc36w]Quite pleased with this one. Just stick to the plan now Phillip and we’ll kick the festival off to a good start!
[b:38rfc36w]Hurricane Fly Champion Hurdle – 10 pts win @ 11/2 [/b:38rfc36w]
Not looking good. Doubt I’ll be getting a run for my money here.
[b:38rfc36w]Pandorama RSA Chase – 2 pts win @ 25/1[/b:38rfc36w]
I still might be tempted to have another bet on him before the Knight Frank. I was delighted with how he ran in the Drinmore. The extra half mile and going left-handed will bring about further improvement.
[b:38rfc36w]Cooldine Gold Cup – 2pts win @ 12/1 [/b:38rfc36w]
I expected him to run in the Durkan when I put him up so its likely there’ll be 12/1 and possibly bigger around in the New Year. He’ll need the run in the Lexus and Kauto Star is very unlikely to be turned over at Kempton.
[b:38rfc36w]Aran Concerto Gold Cup – 1pt win @ 40/1[/b:38rfc36w]
Big disappointment in the Durkan. Hard to see him running in a Gold Cup if Meade is considering running him over hurdles on New Year’s Eve.
[b:38rfc36w]An Siorrac Foxhunters Chase – 2pts win @ 3/1[/b:38rfc36w]
Another one I’m unlikely to get a run with. Its a real pity because he is potentially top-class. He could have cleaned up in this sort of grade.
[b:38rfc36w]Captain Cee Bee Arkle – 3pts win @ 25/1 [/b:38rfc36w]
The price looked far too big after Naas and its long gone now. I don’t think he’ll win against Sizing Europe and Osana but I don’t think he’ll disgrace himself either. Harty will have him ready for Cheltenham and he will love the better ground they invariably get over in England in March.
[b:38rfc36w]Alaivan Triumph Hurdle – 5pts win @ 7/1[/b:38rfc36w]
Huge reputation and he has to live up to it on St Stephens’ Day. I doubt there’ll be many other Irish trained Triumph hopes for us Paddies to latch onto so I can see him being quite short in the run up to the festival
[b:38rfc36w]Rite Of Passage Neptune Investments Novices Hurdle – 3pts win @ 20/1[/b:38rfc36w]
Like Alaivan, he puts his Cheltenham credentials on the line on Saturday. There won’t be any 20/1 left around if he wins impressively which he should against fairly mediocre opposition.
Total staked so far: 58pts (Might have another 2pts on Pandorama before Monday to bring me up to an even 60)
Alaivan well and truly stuffed today. I wouldn’t totally lose faith in him but it hardly looks promising.
Disappointing what happened with Rite Of Passage but thankfully DK spotted the blood before he ran. He could have done untold damage to himself had he raced. There’ll be another day for him.
I think Captain Cee Bee had Sizing Europe well covered when he came down but jumping is the name of the game. It wasn’t a heavy fall or anything though and hopefully he’ll be none the worse for it.
Pandorama RSA Chase – 2pts win @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes)
I’m anticipating another good show on Monday. A lot of people think Alpha Ridge can turn the Drinmore form around but I can’t really see the logic behind that. Noel’s are in good form and he should be better left handed and up in trip.
Total staked: 60pts
Captain Cee Bee and Pandorama, quality tipping. To be fair, so were all the others, just some bad luck, thats ante-post betting though. Im getting quite excited about Pandorama though, hes just doing what he has to do in every race, and no more. Sign of real quality.
Dunguib Supreme Novices Hurdle & Any Irish Trained Horse Champion Bumper – 10 pts win @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes)
I’m confident that Dunguib will win the Supreme Novices doing handstands. The rest of our 2 mile novices in Ireland are poor and the likes of Rite Of Passage, Quel Esprit and Shinrock Paddy will be running over further. Henderson seems to have a strong hand across the water but judging by the market before Christmas, it was Belvano that was highly thought of and he was found out at Kempton. I was impressed with Menorah and I’ll probably be backing him e/w closer to the day in order to cover some of my Dunguib bets.
Historically the bumper has normally been marked for export as the English trainers don’t seem to treat it as seriously as our handlers. No English horse has really got a blow-in in the last few renewals. With Mullins, Meade, Weld, Kiely, O’Grady etc. all likely to have several promising sorts out over the next few months I’d be very confident of collecting on this bet.
Delighted with Rite Of Passage’s debut over timber last Sunday. He looked to my eyes to have really filled out over the last year when I saw him in the parade ring. I last saw him in the flesh when he won a bumper at Naas and he was only a shell of a horse.
Plenty of money around for him for the 2m5 race over the last few days so hopefully I’ll get a run for my money with him. Wonder will Robbie Mac keep the ride or will DK go for the best available?
The ante-post portfolio is shaping up quite nicely after the weekend. Captain Cee Bee won pulling a plough at Naas and goes to the Arkle a worthy favourite. Dunguib will be very short on the day now and I can’t see many other Irish trainers rushing to take him on. (DK will surely send Rite Of Passage to the longer race now).
Good to see Cooldine back to somewhere near his best. Paul Nicholls will hardly be losing any sleep but at least I’ll get a run for my money.
Hopefully they all stay sound now for the festival.
Hurricane Fly not among the Champion Hurdle entries as expected. On the plus side today, Rite Of Passage cemented his position at the head of the Neptune Hurdle market.
The portfolio is shaping up very nicely at this stage with the festival now less than four weeks away. So far we have advised:
– The current Supreme Novices Hurdle fav at 5/2 (now a 5/6 shot)
– The current Arkle fav at 25/1 (now a 7/2 shot)
– The current Neptune Novices Hurdle fav at 20/1 (now a 7/2 shot)Hopefully they all stay sound now. Alaivan runs again at the weekend so hopefully he’ll book his place in the Triumph. Might have a bet in both the Bumper and the Ryanair during the weekend.
Alaivan very much back on the radar now after his Fairyhouse stroll. Delighted with that.
My Ryanair and bumper fancies didn’t run on Sunday with Naas being snowed off. I’ll be keeping my powder dry on these races for another while yet.
Pandorama joins Hurricane Fly and An Siorrac on the easy list. Big shame because he’d have relished the 3 mile test of the RSA. Will be interesting to see how the only horse to have ever beaten him under rules schools after racing today – Mikael D’Haguenet. I hope he doesn’t end up in the Arkle now and scupper my Captain Cee Bee bet.
Tranquil Sea Ryanair Chase – 5pts e/w @ 7/1 (Bet365)
Should have a nice spin round today over two miles to sharpen him up. He showed his class in the Paddy Power back in November when I thought he won with any amount in hand. He had the race won at the top of the hill and Andy Mac nursed him home after turning in. I can’t understand why Poquelin is shorter than him (well I can, Nicholls/Ruby factor!). Barbers Shop is a useful stick but he has rarely got his head in front and I don’t think he is a genuine Grade 1 animal. For me, Schindlers Hunt will probably pose the biggest threat to Tranquil Sea.
A lot has been made of his form tailing off last year but that was understandable considering he had no summer out in the field after breaking his shoulder following his Grade 1 novice hurdle victory over Fiveforthree and Trafford Lad. I’m sure he is far better than his form last year and I wouldn’t worry at all about his Jewson run.
Total staked – 80pts.
Captain Cee Bee Arkle & Garde Champetre Cross Country Chase – 5 pts win @ 14/1 (Paddy Power daily special)
Already have a nice price about Captain Cee Bee for the Arkle but I couldn’t resist this bet. I expect Captain Cee Bee to win the Arkle with a clear round. There’s no doubt in my mind he had Sizing Europe comfortably covered at Leopardstown and I thought he was excellent at Naas in ground that was far from ideal. Sommersby is the danger as far as I’m concerned but Captain Cee Bee has more experience than him and I think he has a lot more gears than him too. I couldn’t see Sommersby winning 1m3 on the flat.
I’m a massive Garde Champetre fan and have backed him in most of his runs since he has gone to Enda. He’ll be weighted to the hilt but I don’t think you can apply the same thought process to this race than you would for the conventional handicaps. Weight doesn’t really seem to matter over the banks as both Risk Of Thunder and Spotthedifference proved in the past. There’ll be plenty of Euros down on him if the likes of Dunguib, Captain Cee Bee & Go Native/Solwhit have gone in already on the Tuesday.
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