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So the theory goes, the Irish novice chasing ranks are bulging with talent this year, with those filling the first four places in the Ballymore Properties (still want to call this the Sun Alliance) Hurdle all hugely promising chasers-in-the-making.
With Trafford Lad making an indifferent debut (awarded the race in the stewards’ room), and Forpadydeplasterer making his debut tomorrow at Punchestown, just wondered if anyone had an opinion:
(a) whether these four are going to set the world alight this year, or whether our trainers (Nicholls in particular) have the stronger firepower?
(b) which of these four do you think will prove the best; this season and longer-term?
(c) what will win the Arkle and Sun Alliance Chases in March?
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The potential of the Irish horses is, at the moment, merely that, so it’s not a great leap of logic to think that we currently hold the upper hand (not that it is an us and them situation). Paul Nicholls has some tremendous talent at his disposal and I can’t see him failing to win the Arkle, with both Tatenen and I’msingingtheblues possible starters. The former was hellishly impressive at Aintree, but I’m still on the side of the latter at present.
Funnily enough, as chasing prospects go, I’m not looking forward to seeing any of the Ballymore quartet more than I am Aran Concerto.
To be honest though, the excitement isn’t limited to the novice ranks. The likes of Air Force One will now be stepping up to tackle the established stars and there’s plenty more to come from horses such as Oscar Park, Oslot and Hobbs Hill.
Venalmar, the second from last years Ballymore, and arguably the horse out of those four with the biggest reputation, is out for the season.
Pretty sure I heard or read somewhere that Willie Mullins won’t run Fiveforthree this side of Christmas and he will be given a similar campaign to last year with only a few runs before the spring.
Trafford Lad was a bit disappointing on his chasing debut but he looks to my eye an out an out stayer and will appreciate greatly a step up in trip. Goes for the Drinmore next at Fairyhouse over 2m5.
Two horses I am looking forward to seeing over fences are Cooldine who could well end up in the Sun Alliance come March and Tranquil Sea who holds an entry at Cork on Sunday.
Thanks chaps.
Another Nicholls inmate I am looking forward to seeing this year is Nevada Royale. Things didn’t exactly pan out for him last year, but he looks to have huge potential. I saw him canter all over an Intermediate Point-to-Point field at Charlton Horethorne 2 seasons ago, in a time faster than the open race. He didn’t come off the bridle, and I thought then that he could be a future Gold Cup horse.
Most Irish national hunt trainers remind me of USA PGA golfers at the moment. Earning huge prizemoney in Ireland over the last decade for being distinctly average has made them fat dumb and happy. The celtic tiger brought with it a penchant for flashy first season novice hurdlers that produced little in season two, a bit like changing your beamer every January (another feature of the tiger when it was in full flow.)
Willie Mullins is a great trainer, as hungry as ever so the unexposed Fiveforthree is in good hands. Wouldnt surprise me at all if at least 3 of the 4 didnt live up to expectations though.
I reckon Nicholls will clean up in Ireland this winter.
Its a shame about Venalmar, but Fiveforthree is a very exciting proposition as he didnt look anywhere near 100% last year when he was winning easily, could be a good one for the Royal and Sun Alliance.
Definitely think he’s worth his price in that market but as he’s not due to run for a bit it could be worth holding off, as something else emerging may cause him to drift and the money for him in the ballymore properties and supreme novice didnt come until late on last year.
I backed Clarified at 30, Firefox – shame he hadn’t tried to drag the last up the straight with him.
I thought it was a workmanlike reappearance from Forpadydeplasterer. Got in close to one or two fences but he was clever enough to fiddle over them. He should jump better out of quicker ground. I don’t think he’s ever going to look ultra impressive in his races as he only seems to do enough when sent to the front. May not have the gears for an Arkle around Cheltenham but he has plenty of scope there’s definitely a few decent novice events in him. He improved with each run last season and would expect him to do the same this year.
Cooper reported after the race that he’ll be aimed at the Drinmore at Fairyhouse on 30 November where he’s likely to clash with Trafford Lad.
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Two miles on heavy ground should have been a sufficient test of stamina, firefox, so I can’t be anything other than disappointed with that run. Experience will obviously bring about improvement, but as things stand I wouldn’t even entertain the idea of backing him for Cheltenham.
Bring on Aran Concerto.
I know he’s not a novice but Glencove Marina being out for the season is a big blow for the Irish. One of the few that could have halted the Nicholls bandwagon.
I was pretty impressed with Forpadydeplasterer. I think he’ll be better on better going and he screams out for wanting a further trip. Add to that the fact that it was his first start over fences and he was prominent throughout with a faster gallop more likely to suit him.
I thought he jumped excellently, under pressure as well and he’s a scrapper, I can think of worse horses to have on your side up that Cheltenham hill.
I thought Forpadydeplasterer’s jumping was indifferent at best.
Nowhere near as bad as, say, Missed That’s was in his maiden chase, but far from exuberant, and he lacked fluency for me – didn’t look a natural is the best way I can put it. That might be in part due to the ground which probably took a fair bit of jumping out of, and he clearly has an engine, but he will need to improve his fencing if he’s going to go to the top, imo.
Good performance by Tranquil Sea on his chasing debut at Cork. Jumped well and pushed out to win by a few lengths. Paddy Power make him their 12/1 favourite for the Sun Alliance.
Looks to me, a bit like Forpadydeplasterer, that 2 miles could be a bit too sharp for him, so it would be no surprise if he was targeted at the Sun Alliance rather than the Arkle.
He’s certainly with the right trainer if he is to be targeted at Cheltenham. O’Grady’s record at the festival is second to none amongst the Irish trainers.
I was very impressed by Tranquil Sea today. Serious horse and one to follow. He could step back without too much bother given the way he jumped through the race today.
The way he dived the final two was a little worrying but you could put that down to tiredness (First run of the season) and inexperience on his chase debut.
It seems a lot of the good Irish novices are kind of in between trips as far as Cheltenham is concerned. It would not surprise me if some trainers took what might be the easier option, and swerved the festival in favour of the Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse over 2m4, and then either stepping up or dropping back in trip for Punchestown.
Definitely worth keeping this in mind if punting antepost.
Imperial Call
Whilst your logic is sound that many of the Irish novice chasers are at a halfway house in terms of trip and that it would make sense to sidestep the festival and wait for the likes of the Powers Gold Cup over an intermediate trip, can you see Forpadytheplasterer and his multitude of flag waving owners exercising this discipline come the beginning of March??
Or Edward "i must have a runner at the festival" O’Grady, advising his owners to wait for Punchestown and Fairyhouse.
Despite what many of them saying that Cheltenham isn’t the be all and end all, when it comes down to it most are blinded by the light and will ultimately head down that road.
It seems a lot of the good Irish novices are kind of in between trips as far as Cheltenham is concerned. It would not surprise me if some trainers took what might be the easier option, and swerved the festival in favour of the Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse over 2m4, and then either stepping up or dropping back in trip for Punchestown.
Definitely worth keeping this in mind if punting antepost.
I think it’s less a case of them being ‘between trips’, and more a case of them not having opportunities over 3m until later in the season.
The Fort Leney, Woodlands Park and Ten Up are all good prizes, and I’d expect to see the likes of Trafford Lad, Tranquil Sea, Fiveforthree, Chasing Cars, Cooldine etc targeting these races.
As for swerving the Festival in favour of a run at Fairyhouse? I suspect the owners would rather take their chances with the Sun Alliance trip, or look to run in the Jewson instead.
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