Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Irish Derby early predictions.
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andyod.
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- June 8, 2008 at 00:38 #8042
One-way traffic to New Approach?
Not a chance. I’ll continue to pledge my alliance elsewhere and with the promise of a stronger tempo (here’s where Coolmore could be handy) I think Tartan Bearer can wipe the floor with New Approach.
June 8, 2008 at 01:13 #167304I can’t believe the likes of Curtain Call and Frozen Fire ran to form today – though the latter wasn’t exactly given a chance – but I’d seriously fancy the chances of Doctor Fremantle if he were to make the trip to the Curragh.
June 8, 2008 at 02:25 #167306I can’t have Doctor Fremantle as a Group 1 horse. Sure he will always travel but he doesn’t have the necessary engine to win races at top level.
I think Tartan Bearer is a genuine Group 1 horse and the faster the gallop the better for him. New Approach however is going to be a tough nut to crack.
June 8, 2008 at 06:33 #167315I can’t believe the likes of Curtain Call and Frozen Fire ran to form today – though the latter wasn’t exactly given a chance – but I’d seriously fancy the chances of Doctor Fremantle if he were to make the trip to the Curragh.
Why? He was left behind by the front three who all look likely to go to the same race. As Ian says, he will always travel well throughout his races, but I doubt he will have the class to actually win a Group 1 (yet, still developing), especially not the Irish Derby. Also felt he was a little too keen early on.
Tartan Bearer has made serious strides in a little over a month. He wasn’t exceptional when winning his maiden at Leicester, yet finished a half length runner up to the champion two-year old and dual 2000 Guineas runner up. I think he is more than capable of reversing the placings with New Approach as I feel he has so much more to come on a galloping track, such as the Curragh.
June 8, 2008 at 08:11 #167325New Approach again – class!
June 8, 2008 at 08:28 #167328Oops – I was forgetting about Famous Name. Think he is definitely in with a chance.
June 8, 2008 at 10:24 #167346when is the Irish Derby? I can’t believe how exciting I’m finding the flat this year. Almost tempted to try to get over to Ireland to see it!
June 8, 2008 at 11:05 #167352I think if Doctor Freemantle wins a group 1 it’ll be the St Leger. By Saddlers Wells out of a sister to Sunshack and Raintrap (stayers).
Everything depends on the prices, but New Approach will probably be over bet, so too Famous Name for his "unlucky" 2nd in the French Derby. Tartan Bearer the probable bet.
Mark
Value Is EverythingJune 8, 2008 at 11:19 #167354Having just watched the re-run on RUK I didn’t realise just what a performance New Approach produced in the Derby he had a nightmare race in a lot of ways nothing seemed to go right for him yet he still won.
On reflection I can’t see Tartan Bearer reversing the form.
June 8, 2008 at 11:23 #167355I still love Famous Name – but for a second race in a row I will not back him. Ten furlong horse for mine.
June 8, 2008 at 14:17 #167375Weld has been quoted as saying he will put Famous Name away for the Autumn or some such crap.
June 8, 2008 at 14:30 #167376Can we send Zarkava there as well? lol.
June 8, 2008 at 14:57 #167378I dont think New Approach will go for the Irish Derby but if he did run and win then how many horses can say they were 2nd in Uk and Ire 2000 gns and winners of Uk and Ire Derby’s
Horse will probably go for the Eclipse at Sandown, International at York and then the Irish Champion Stakes i would have thought.
As regards the Irish Derby i bet Aidan will blanket bomb the whole race
June 8, 2008 at 15:15 #167382Weld has been quoted as saying he will put Famous Name away for the Autumn or some such crap.
You are correct. He is one of my Horses To Follow (and needs to run a bit more often than that), naturally…
June 8, 2008 at 20:53 #167433Have just sat down and watched a few re-runs of the Derby.
If I’d been at home betting in running I’d definitely have laid New Approach at any point during the first 6 furlongs. Looked to be giving Manning all sorts of problems (or vice versa) and looked anything but a horse that was going to storm up the straight. He took a fair bump too from one on the inside of him as Manning was shuffling him back.
Interestingly Tartan Bearer was actually behind him coming round Tattenham Corner but Moore was away first on the oustide while Manning went through the traffic.
So, in the end it was a very impressive performance and I don’t think there’s much doubt about who the two best horses were. I love Tartan Bearer, who is an extremely taking individual with a great attitude and he is the more likely of the front two to progress again, but he’ll have it all to do to beat the winner in the re-match.
Of the others if I was Dermot Weld I’d be taking Casual Conquest to the Eclipse as I thought he didn’t quite see it out and wouldn’t have great prospects fo overturning both the first two over a mile and a half. I thought Rio De Plata also ran a great race until clobbered by the winner (deserved three day ban IMO for Manning) and I think he’ll notch up a Group 1 race over a mile or a mile and two.
Finally, I was at Epsom yesterday and thought, in terms of looks, that, as a collective bunch, they were the most impressive looking Derby field for some time.
June 9, 2008 at 00:25 #167455I believe that New Approach was beaten in the 2000 Guineas because he was ambushed.Surely a horse that carries such speed needs to be allowed go on not fought with.Even in the Dewhurst he was fought with and still won. If a horse can win after such a fight surely he will win without the fight. If you look at the Galileo Futurity you will see that he loves to be in front.A shame that the ground was so firm for the Irish Guineas.This horse is special and before the year is out maybe Manning will learn how to ride him. I am still angry at Manning for hitting him after the winning post in the Guineas.That is twice this year that he was penalized after riding this beautiful horse.That says something but I don’t know what.
June 9, 2008 at 08:19 #167469I think if Tartan Bearer goes for the irish derby with new approach in the race he could go even closer to winning. I honestly beleived in the lead up to the derby he would win it but I feel Ryan Moore made a move too early and therefore hit the front too early. I am not taking anything away from him or saying that he gave the horse a bad ride, but the horse even shocked me by the ground he made up. He also seemed to hit the front too soon.
I think when he goes head to head with horses he battles and normally wins, I would love to see him and new approach go head to head from 2 furlongs out and really extend each other as i beleive TB could gain the upper hand.
In saying that, I thought Tartan Bearer had the derby and was counting ym money as he soared past me at 1 1/2 furlongs out,so what do i know!?!?
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