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To counter that, Ginge, a jockey is theoretically there to harness his mount’s energy and optimise its performance level.
Doesn’t counter it at all Glad’. What I am saying is most horses may well go faster for a jockey when racing over 1m4f… Because without a jockey on board they are effectively not trying, they are content to remain followers. But for the small group of horses that are natural leaders, they are capable of going a lot faster without carrying the weight of a jockey for a mile and a half. Because they are “trying”… these leaders are trying to remain in front and are helped in doing that by having far less weight on board.
Voyage finishing in front maybe a good sign for the horse’s temperament / future, but finishing in front without a jockey means nothing as far as form goes.
Value Is EverythingMahler Mission came “second” in the Grand National ; would he still have filled this position had he not jettisoned 11st 5lb at halfway? Doubtful.
I think 9st 2lb is deemed by a handicapper to be worth roughly 85 lengths in a 12f race.
We see this all the time over the jumps. How many absolute nags have we seen unseating only to cross the line in front of vastly superior jockeyed horses.
With COT imo likely to go to Sandown and AF not entered (could be supplemented) Los Angeles is the obvious one. Took 7/2 this morning. Or rather, tipped it up @ 7/2. Haven’t had a unibet account for 10 years.
Value Is EverythingHas Aidan done an interview today?
COT out to 9/4 for this and now 2/1 top price for the EclipseGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
It seems Havlin is going to keep the ride on Ambiente Friendly.
The more I know the less I understand.
Los Angeles now favourite over Ambiente Friendly.
I suppose he has home advantage and Moore on board but will that be enough to turn around the three length deficit at Epsom?
Ambiente Friendly has to be the bet, even allowing for the Havlin factor. He would be Evens or a shade of odds on if a better jockey was booked.
Rained quite heavy there today and that will suit Los Angeles
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
“He would be Evens or a shade of odds on if a better jockey was booked.”
I doubt it. It’s not like he’s a hopeless jockey. It’s likely the rain that fell today that has brought the 2 horses closer together in the market.
Think the rain has very much evened up the contest. Not sure ambiente friendly will cope with the conditions. We shall see.
You can get 13/8 for both AF and LA. AF showed at Epsom he is effective with some give underfoot.
Got 7/2 LA so would love it to be soft, but can’t see it. There doesn’t look like much rain from now to the off, so it shouldn’t be any worse than good-soft. Probably between Good and Good-soft. Both AF and LA can get a bit sweaty and / or play up beforehand. Be interesting to see how a horse that can get on edge will cope with the flight over etc. Epsom also was at a time when Fanshawe was in particularly good form, imo he’s not in bad form now – had a winner today – but he’s not exactly “in good form” either. Epsom was run pretty fast early and LA was one who was up there helping to make that fast pace. In an evenly paced race LA should get at least a bit closer to AF. Rather than being part of COT’s pacemaking party, this time LA has pacemakers in to make his job easier. Also LA improved at Epsom, putting up a career best, whereas AF pretty much only reproduced his Lingfield effort. So will LA carry on progressing past AF? AF is a good looking horse, but LA is a bigger type, the type you may think would continue progressing through his 3 year old campaign and the type to be more at home on a galloping track rather than an undulating one. So there are quite a few reasons to believe LA can get closer and possibly overturn the form with AF…but imo the value right now is Grosvenor Square @ 16/1. Not knocked about at all when 3rd behind the ill-fated Hidden Law in the Chester Vase. A true test of stamina at this trip is sure to bring out the best in him and the fact there will be at least some give is also in his favour. A Galileo half brother to an Irish Derby winner Santiago. He’s only had one run this season and we know how much AOB’s have generally improved for their first outing. He was taken out late from the Queens Vase to keep him fresh for this.
Although Matsuri has soft ground form, his action should suit better ground. But he’s gone through his races at 10f so easily that the rain / greater test at 12f might be against him. A “could be anything” and certainly has bags of improvement in him. But it was just a Leicester Class 4 10f minor event he won.
Sunway has a poor French 2yo Group 1 to his name, but hasn’t really looked up to this since. Well beaten this year. Beaten 4 1/4 lengths in the French Derby.
Keepers Light was only 1 3/4 lengths behind LA in the Derby Trial but has himself disappointed since. Whereas LA has improved a good deal.
Euphoric was between LA and Keepers Light in that Trial, but is likely to be sacrificed as a pacemaker today.
The Euphrates was 9 1/2 lengths behind Calandagan in the King Ed.
Looks between the first four in the betting. I’m on LA and GS.
Value Is EverythingI’d be concerned Grovesnor Square was going for the Queens Vase at all. Doesn’t exactly exude confidence about his speed/class for this. I know Santiago did the double but it was in the Covid year, bad Irish Derby, didn’t win a bad St Leger the same year. I suppose they didn’t want GS as part of the pace making party for the Derby which might say something about what they think of him but then again it might have just been too soon for him after Chester. If he’d gone to Epsom he’s probably going there as a similar sort of price to Euphoric.
I’ll probably be in the minority here, I think Los Angeles was ridden pretty much on his merits at Epsom. I’ve seen some suggesting he was a pace maker for City Of Troy but that’s just nonsense. I think they had him down as a strong stayer and if anything they made it a test so one of him or COT won and the pace was to weed out the non-stayers and maybe they had AF down as a doubtful stayer but he wasn’t and Los Angeles has a fair distance to make up on him. Obviously its a different track, potentially tactical and I’m not a huge Havlin fan which would temper my enthusiasm somewhat for AF. I think if Dettori was still riding over here and he’s on the horse the horse is odds on because you don’t have those tactical concerns which are massively factored into the prices.
If Matsuri is top class he doesn’t have a huge gulf in ability to bridge. We don’t have the Derby winner here and he won it very easily and lets not forget most of us thought it was a weak Derby beforehand so finishing 2nd and 3rd may not be all it seems on paper. Even withstanding the lack of group race form though he wears a hood, can take a pull and he’s going up in trip.
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