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Having watched the Derby back a few times a rodin did win much easier than at first seemed. He had to pull round horses to challenge and ryan wasn’t aware how well king of steel was going. Indeed Ryan was a wee bit surprised. He then had to quicken earlier than anticipated and then quicken again to pass king of steel. He was pulling well away at the end. Can’t see anything but a bigger win at the curragh unless he hits traffic as he is a beautifully balanced horse with no little speed. I’d say it will be the juddmonte then irish champion depending on Luxembourg. Doubt both will go to the arc. I can even see a rodin running in Japan then heading to stud.
Also depends on Paddington too. He looks like he’s tailor made for 10f.
The weather will be the deciding factor but hopefully we get a good ground arc and equinox turns up. Could be a race for the ages.First two in The Derby aren’t quite (currently) as far clear of the others than the distance back to the third suggests. KOS and AR may improve further though.
However, can’t see any possible reason why King Of Steel’s run would be a “fluke”.
Value Is EverythingI don’t actually have a problem with it – five different sets of colours (ownerships) and, though there may well be a pacemaker in there, I reckon they’ll all be running on their merits as they always are in the Group 1s.
Backing supposed second and third strings who seem to have a chance in their own right from this family in Group 1s has been a licence to print money over the years as they’re all having a go, regardless of what the social media conspiracy theorists think.
That said, I’ve always thought the Irish Derby is a coronation for a good winner of The Derby on Epsom Downs and I reckon this lot won’t see which way Auguste Rodin went from over a furlong out on Sunday.
Lumping on odds-on chances isn’t for me, but 1/2 (1.5) or anything better would be fair.
The Derby form looked good on the day and is working out well.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Derby winners since 1970 who have followed up at The Curragh: Nijinsky, Grundy, The Minstrel, Shirley Heights, Troy, Shergar, Shahrastani, Kahyasi, Generous, Commander In Chief, Sinndar, Galileo, High Chaparral, Camelot, Australia, Harzand.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Although the winning is important these joint owners can rake in a considerable amount of prize money outside of the winner.
The more I know the less I understand.
If AR has off day and he will need to Up and Under form solid around other runners , and was well ahead of Tower of London this season and he looks smart . At 12s Ladbrokes his form with White Birch makes him decent each way value to me when viewed where White Birch sits in market .
Nice and fresh into race .I agree with ID there is no problem from a punters point of view. My comment was about the bigger picture.
The Irish Derby is meant to be a race of international status but all the runners are trained in Ireland, mostly by the same family.
Nothing from overseas, nothing from Godolphin, Juddmonte, Qatar etc. Perhaps it is just a one off but I can’t believe Irish authorities or The Curragh are particularly happy with this year’s field.
At least there is one potentially very high class horse. Without him, it would have looked like a distinctly sub-standard and parochial event.
I’m into percentage runners beaten sqd stats, as such I aggregate them up to trainer level over different time periods(i.e. the last 30 days and 365 days being the key ones I look at) to get a sense of whether a trainer is in our out of form. Plus I do some course specific trainer ratings.
Here are the numbers for all the trainers at Curragh this weekend, have a gleg and see what you think
Here’s my trial race stats for the Irish Derby where runners ran in the last instance of the trial race and their fin pos
I can see why Auguste Rodin is fav but not keen on a price of 1.35, I think White Birch makes a good ew bet seen as it’s 10.5 on the exchange
Are 6 of them not owned by the same set of people just racing in different colours? Not a good image imo. Might as well rename it the Magnier/Tabor/Smith/Westerberg Derby.
According to the RP today it doesn’t even register in the top 100 Group/Grade 1 races and aside watching Rodin run it is totally unappealing. It’s days of being an international race are long gone.
The more I know the less I understand.
13/8 White Birch w/o the fav. Just to make it interesting. Great card tomorrow. I have gambled.
“The Irish Derby is meant to be a race of international status but all the runners are trained in Ireland”
Yet more fair comment from CAS.
Prior to the race being reduced in distance, one lived in hope the French Derby winner might have a go – as Suave Dancer did against Generous back in the day – along with a few progressive late developers.
I still can’t see Auguste Rodin getting beat but, if it’s to happen, given the strong tail wind there this weekend, one of his pacemaking stablemates might just do a Serpentine.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"This used to be a race which was held in high regard and whether Auguste Rodin wins or not I don’t actually care.
The more I know the less I understand.
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