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4/6 Auguste Rodin
9/2 King Of Steel
12/1 Arrest
12/1 Sprewell
14/1 barCan’t find a thread for this (though wouldn’t be the first time I’m missed one) so here goes.
I think The Derby on Saturday was a good renewal, hence Auguste Rodin must be very hard to beat in this.
I’m really not sure about King Of Steel – he’s a monster who has run a monster race, but I suspect he might bounce and that he will in any event prove best at 1m2f.
Arrest is unlikely to get his ground (quagmire) – and how good is he, anyway? – and why would Sprewell get any closer this time?
Knight To Knight is interesting.
An easy winner of a 1m1f110yds Gowran Park Maiden today, a cursory glance at his pedigree might suggest stamina doubts, but his Irish 1,000 Guineas-winning dam has produced Ghaiyyath and Zhukova.
Dermot Weld has already trained three Irish Derby winners and this is the sort of late developer who can sometimes pop up in this race – currently 25/1.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Don’t think Arrest specifically needs soft (although it would be a big advantage to him as he copes with it extremely well, whereas others may not) but quick ground at Epsom down the hill into Tattenham Corner is a totally different proposition to the flatter galloping nature of the Curragh on quick ground and lets not forget that he won on good to firm at Sandown on his second start as a two year old.
Granted he might not be good enough when all is said and done but I think we can reasonably expect a much better showing than the one we got at Epsom (assuming they can keep a lid on him in the prelims). Aguste Rodin at odds on is a silly price especially as I don’t think the race will be run as strongly as it was at Epsom (unless Aidan loads up with pacemakers), it could very well be a tactical affair where speed rather than stamina could be a key weapon to have.
I take on board that King of Steel could be susceptible to the bounce factor off the back of that huge first time out effort but the race isn’t until the 2 July so he has a nice amount of time to get over the exertions – still think their could be improvement to come from him as he will now be race fit going into the race.
Auguste rodin going down in trip after this race
Then they are looking at either the Arc or breeders cup, possible favouring the breeders cup if the ground gets very soft in france
According to Magnier
I think there must be a very good chance of Auguste Rodin running in the International Stakes at York and/or the Irish Champion Stakes at The Curragh.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"FF – Makes sense, although plans may depend on what happens in the Eclipse, personally I think AR could struggle dropping back in trip unless they stack the race with pacemakers – it took him most of the 12F to get on top so a tactical 10F race is the very last thing I think he wants.
The 10F division looks like it could be real deep this year.
Auguste Rodin won The Derby in the manner of a colt who would be suited by the St Leger and needs every inch of 1m4f.
But the commercial imperative to drop to 1m2f instead will be gigantic.
The International Stakes at York is an extended 1m2f and I think that will be the target, same as it was with Australia.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"The finishing speed percentage in the Derby was 116% so they’ve gone slow and sprinted home
So auguste rodin has quickened past other quickening horses
Suggests 1m2f isn’t going to be a problem for him though I’d be of the opinion quick ground over 1m4f will be his optimum
He’s definitely not slow though
White Birch now confirmed as going to The Curragh.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Unless some act better around the Curragh as opposed to Epsom I can’t see past Auguste Rodin.
The more I know the less I understand.
I always regarded the Irish Derby as a Coronation for a good Derby winner.
The Minstrel, Shirley Heights, Troy (hosed up), Shergar (ditto) all won both in my first five years following the game 1977-1981.
I think The Derby was a good race this year, better than last year’s renewal.
IMO, it’s a myth that The Curragh is the stiffer 1m4f as the standard times at The Curragh and Epsom tend to undermine any such assertion.
So if Auguste Rodin quickened past quickening rivals on Epsom Downs, there’s every reason to suppose he will do it again at The Curragh.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"10f shouldn’t be a bother for Auguste Rodin if some of these numbers are anything to go by…
https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight/06-june-2023/2023-classic-crop-looking-classy
Ballydoyle was convinced Auguste Rodin was going to win the Guineas. Under different circumstances, maybe he might.
I do not see how 10 furlongs will be any sort of problem for him.
But he wins here first. 4/6 (if it is still available) is more generous than I would rate his chance.
I agree with Mike and CAS.
The colt won a Group 1 at 1m as a 2yo (albeit on Heavy ground) and was considered quick enough to take his chance in the 2,000 Guineas.
Then there’s the sectional times for Epsom – he’s shown some turn of foot to get past rivals who were quickening themselves.
I don’t think 1m2f will be a problem and at York it’s actually a bit further than that.
And he has the Irish Derby at his absolute mercy.
I wouldn’t back any horse at 4/6 ante-post and there’s not many I’d back at those odds on the day.
But I might back him – it was impossible to be anything but impressed with how he won The Derby and bigger odds about others doesn’t automatically mean better value.
Far from it.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"King Of Steel could easily take a step forward from his seasonal debut. Will be a good watch.
If conditions favour speed at the Curragh, then KOS may shorten, but I can’t see him being as effective given softer going. On one hand might bounce, but he’s also a lightly raced big horse who’s almost certain to improve again at some point.
If conditions are good or good-soft then can see AR shortening as – although he should himself be effective at 1m2f – doubt he’ll have any trouble staying a stiff mile and a half. Unlike his main rival. KOS might even come out if it’s soft.
Arrest will be a lot shorter on soft, but that’s a big IF, more likely won’t run on a firmer surface.
Sprewell might do a bit better. Got a bit of interference at Epsom, but I doubt it cost him even 3rd.
White Birch came from too far back in a race that was not particularly truly run (not particularly slow either) may get a little closer this time.
Nothing really appeals as a good bet.
Value Is EverythingThe bounce factor usually applies when horses miss a season then come back, run well, and then disappoint on second go. This doesn’t apply to King Of Steel. He only ran last autumn.
If he disappoints it’s either because the Derby run was a fluke (like some others in Derby history who reach the frame at a big price), he gets injured/has a bad trip in the race, or he only runs his best races when fresh.
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