Irish Champion Stakes 2012

[darren83]

My bet is IMPERIAL MONARCH 13/2 This horse not run off a strong pace yet made running last time at 1m4 race and won which does not happen a lot
chuck some pacemakers in race and coming off a stronger pace he finish very strong at finish.

[andyod]

If the Fairy runs as good as last year she will win. There is nothing like SYT in the present race.

[Grimes]

I know Snow Fairy looks the likely winner, but she’s been there and done it all, and I’m wondering if the Princess will be the next female champion. Or good enough to win this. Maybe I’ll do the forecast. Must check Imperial Monarch’s record too.

[Jonibake]

Good old Aiden! SNA runs, IM doesnt!

I think SNA will win as well.

"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

[Presto]

I don’t think this is an open and shut race, the horses are close enough in class and are so different that the pace of the race might decide things. The slower the pace, the bigger chance Snow Fairy has as she’s shown around the globe a spectacular final drive in sit-sprints. In a crawl she’ll win cozily even if settled in last place. I think it’s an open race if Daddy Long Legs is an effective pacemaker. I’m not confident enough to say that Snow Fairy would win in this circumstance.

Don’t forget Born To Sea. He’s had legitimate excuses and John Oxx thinks highly enough of him to enter him in this. He’s the obvious fourth pick and I think he’s a great price to knock off one (or two) of the top 3.
-Pulled his head off when first-up in the Guineas, forgive.
-Held up too far back in Irish Guineas (weak race though), rattled home best of all. They started experimenting with gear at this point, eventually the hood seemed to settle him best.
-Three wide no cover over the mile at Ascot, stayed on one-paced; textbook example of a horse who wants more ground.
-Chased home Camelot on heavy ground. I don’t read much into this because of the conditions, both horses were either dead-tired at the finish or absolutely hated the ground based on how they ran around in the stretch
-Famous Name beat him by 6 lengths last race, and John Oxx still has him entered here which tells you how false that race must be. Crucially John Oxx said afterwards he probably left the horse short of work due to heavy ground on the grass gallops. The horse was also without the hood and overraced very badly early. Gear will be back on.

[Eclipse First]

Snow Fairy finished in front of St Nicholas Abbey over his best trip and ground in the Arc, she finished in front of Nathaniel in the Champion when Nathaniel was getting WFA. Her form at 10f is better than the rest, she showed her well-being (though still ran at least 6lb below her best when winning in France last time), the only concerns could be that last season she took a couple of runs to find her top form and should the ground turn very soft. The Jean Romanet should have got her race-fit and she really should be favourite.

[Gingertipster]

Although I believe Nathaniel should be favourite, he’s far too short. Reliable line through Farhh gives Nathaniel little more than 1/2 a length in hand over

St Nicholas Abbey

. Of course Gosden’s horse had 1 1/2 lengths between the two at Ascot, but most recognise Joseph messed up there. Probably should’ve been a length closer (ie distance again of 1/2 a length, not 1 1/2). Yet Nathaniel is 11/8 (42%) and St Nich 4/1 (20%). Does half a length really mean Nat has over double the chance of Nich? Latter is much better value, and former incredibly poor value.

I’ve put a saver on

Snow Fairy

. Not right up to her best on reappearance, but after injury and a lay off… it was an excellent performance. Not at her best on reapearance last year either, so there’s every indication she”ll be back to her best here. She had 2 1/2 lengths to spare over Saturday’s favourite in last year’s English Champion and although Nathaniel’s probably improved since… is it really enough for a difference of over 11% between the two?

Value Is Everything

[Admiralofthefleet]

Although I am a big fan of St Nic I am running out of faith this season. His ability to win G1’s with any consistency has faded. I wonder if they will send him to Coolmore at the end of this year or do a Fame and Glory.

[andyod]

If you race against group ones it is not so easy to win with consistency.Of course if you are the best group one around then you will win consistenly like Danedream does.

[thebrigadier]

The form book says Snow Fairy apart from Nathaniel’s run in the King George against Danedream and he may have improved more than SF so I wouldn’t rule him out while SNA has never won over this trip.

[andyod]

I know I will get stick for this post but if you were asked to rate the three horses based on the three jockeys which would you pick? Snow Fairy by a neck over Nathaniel for me.

[stevecaution]

I see John Gosden is at it again with a warning that Nathaniel will not be at his peak because the main aim is the Arc. This was the case before the Eclipse and then it was too soon for him in the King George. What are the odds that when he gets to the Arc the ground will be too firm, too soft, he travelled over badly, missed a couple of days work or got stung on the willy by a French wasp?

Answers on a postcard to:-

Pessimists Anonymous
Newmarket

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Gingertipster]

Would you rather Gosden remained silent about any possible negative Steve? At least he says what he thinks. May be you’d rather all trainers were like Sir Michael?

Value Is Everything

[stevecaution]

Would you rather Gosden remained silent about any possible negative Steve?

Pretty much so. If you listened to John Gosden before the Eclipse you lost out on a decent priced winner. If you think that is helping punters, then that is your opinion. If Nathaniel goes out and wins again, despite the negativity, in what way has that helped the potential punter?

Years ago the connections of Zafonic put a warning out to assist the betting public. They felt the ground was too soft. No doubt the odd person might have bizarrely thought that they were doing this to get a better price for themselves, but it was a genuine sporting call and the horse was never in it.

Every horse backed by anyone has some doubt built into the equation. To warn people about it and then see the horse win is bull plop, as far as I am concerned. If a horse has so much doubt about it, then it should be pulled out of the race. Sending horses into a race not fully fit to do themselves justice is poison in an industry keen to see itself as squeaky clean. I think it used to be called "training in public" and Gosden could soon find himself a bit of a pariah, if he keeps talking people out of horses that would be expected to be presented fit and well, with a realistic chance, based on their form, in Group 1 races. I don’t think that is asking too much of our training fraternity?

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[andyod]

Easier to claim you were not fully prepared than that you were not good enough i suppose.Keeps the owner happy.

[Pants]

Think the ground & trip will suit Snow Fairy better than the other two market principals and she’ll be very tough to beat if she’s come on from her season opener she’ll win imo. Nathaniel is drifting, out to 15/8 now, maybe due to JG’s comments and maybe the drying ground.

[Gingertipster]

former (Nathaniel) incredibly poor value.

Think the drift has a lot to do with finding Nathaniel’s rightful price. Always probable it would firm up Pants, so should’ve been already in the price.

Value Is Everything

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