- This topic has 52 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 5 years, 11 months ago by
.
- Posts
I thought i’d open a new thread for this now we know when it’s taking place.
Siskin is a hot favourite and on the form you can see why. However, he has a few things to overcome and they put me off him at his price. Mainly the fact he’s only race over 6f and had a bad experience over in the Middle Park. He has looked very good, and some of his pedigree does hint a mile should be ok. Lyons can ready them first time, and looked in great form back when racing tried to start. However, in saying that, i’d be against him at the price.
The main problem as everyone knows is, it’s very hard to guess what actually will show up here with the current virus problems. Arizona and Wichita have been earmarked for Newmarket, but that could still change.
If we work off the assumption that will happen though, then near the front of the market his runners look to be more likely to be some of Mogul, Innisfree, Armory, Fort Myers, Vatican City, Royal Lytham and Lope Y Fernandez (there are others still).
I would be happy to discount Mogul and i also think Innisfree looks more a middle distance type too. Both could run here anyway, but they wouldn’t excite me.
Armory looked to me a very good one early doors and did run in races that Aidan sends a good one, but he looked exposed later on in the season- i would forgive the French run though.
Fort Myers is one that could run a good race, but i’d be surprised if he’s good enough, having been beaten a few times by other runners in here. Royal Lytham probably falls into this category too.
Lope Y Fernandez probably falls under the same banner as FM + RL, however, i do think a step back up in trip could see him progress. Before Ascot he was being talked about a lot, and ran a nice race behind a horse we now know as a monster. Personally don’t think he shaped that day to need a drop back to 6f, and a Chesham runner in June should appreciate a mile i’d have thought.The real sleeper in here is the superbly bred Vatican City. He won as he liked in a weak enough maiden at Dundalk, Donnacha spoke very nicely of him and the recent market move suggests this is his aim. On the bare form the 14s still available is absurd, he could well prove the best horse in the race and still not win. However, i still get the niggling feeling Aidan’s best 3yo hasn’t shown anything on the track properly yet.
I am awaiting some sectionals from the race he ran in and i might end up backing him.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!The edit function is taking me to my dashboard for this site?
Anyway, sectional don’t look wonderful, Donnacha did say afterwards that the race was very slow and thats why he let him go very prominent. I was hoping to see something more promising than that though to back him with the bare form lacking anything to suggest he’s up to winning a classic first time up!.
Oh well, back to the drawing board, and sitting watching his price possibly tumble more haha.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Jack
Closing three furlong sections were run in 34.35. Which is very good 108% on timeform
Think he is rated 90P with the Halifax firm
That’s exactly what Simon Rowlands sent over twitter as well. Issue being, he said he wasn’t blown away by that.
Just at the 10/1 or 14/1 about, i’d have to be a bit fussy.
Interesting though NW, i’m tempted. You have a fancy or waiting for more info on who runs?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!At the moment Jack I cannot fancy Siskin so am trying to find a way in. I do like Wichita and think he got bogged down in the Dewhurst, but reading what Aiden O’Brien is saying he could be coming over to take Pinatuba on again.
Michael Halford interview with RTE, Ireland today.
https://www.rte.ie/sport/racing/2020/0525/1141497-halford-aims-aga-khan-pair-at-irish-guineas/
He doesn’t say too much about the Aga Khan horses.
You know I have it that he really really likes them
Colosus
At the moment Jack I cannot fancy Siskin so am trying to find a way in. I do like Wichita and think he got bogged down in the Dewhurst, but reading what Aiden O’Brien is saying he could be coming over to take Pinatuba on again.
Yeah that’s the thing, by the sounds of it they are sending those two over, so Siskin has a better chance, but is probably priced skinny enough already. He will be a little shorter on the day, but not enough to back given the clear question marks.
Hard to find a way in i agree. Vatican City’s pedigree really stood out to me and it’s possible he could end up being the best of them. Pretty guessy though.
You know I have it that he really really likes them
I hate to say it Colosus, but i don’t go by stable hype, even if it is from a true source. He’d need to have improved a fair bit anyway for me. Ridenza is the one of his i’d say is his better chance, but she’s coming back from a operation and might need it.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I’m a big fan of siskin and think he will take all the beating on gd ground and with obreins first string running in the English version so they have the option to run at royal ascot too
Bit skinny of a price so just had him in a few free bet multis
I really fancied him for the commonwealth cup but he settles so well in his races that dont see why he cant get 8 furlongs despite being of the opinion 6 will be his optimum
Good man Jack
Last time I got word out of Halfords I won 3 grand.
So he owes me nothing
Colosus
FF91, he looked a proper horse last year, but surely if his optimum is going to be over 6f, he’s a fav worth going after. O’Brien will employ race tactics to exploit that. He’s not miles and miles clear of them to suggest he should win this even if inconvenienced by the trip?
Graeme North from Timeform explained why he’s vulnerable probably better than me below:
Ger Lyons’ Siskin remains a horse with plenty of questions to answer despite his high reputation. He’s currently available at 5-2 for the Irish 2000 Guineas and, on the face of things, would appear to have impressive credentials. After all, he’s unbeaten in four races, including the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes. Dig a little deeper, though, and all those wins can all be questioned to varying degrees, not least on the clock. In none of his four wins did he record a timefigure better than 95, and even after sectional upgrades are factored in he still figures on a relatively low 107. In three of those four wins he faced only four opponents and even beat the same horse – Middle Park and Dewhurst flop Monarch Of Egypt – in his last two wins. Raced only at six furlongs so far, Siskin has to prove that he is effective at a mile and also that his behaviour at the start of the Middle Park, when rearing in the stalls and being withdrawn, was a one-off. Throw in the fact that any number of his contemporaries could have improved significantly since last seen – and several will have done unknown to us given the information vacuum that has existed since late March – then Siskin’s current Irish Guineas price looks pretty skinny.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Good man Jack
Last time I got word out of Halfords I won 3 grand.
So he owes me nothing
Colosus
Is that all?
Interesting that he’s one of the ones with no blue on oddschecker- don’t you and your sources have the house on?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Jack
I need to talk to my man again and will get back to you when I water it down !
I haven’t partaken myself yet.I would ignore the markets as of now.
If anything goes on I would say it will be mainly cash money the night before or the morning of the race.If there is a major move before this that’s the risk I take.
Colosus
As I said he is a horse I like and have followed
A heart bet not a head bet and since I have backed him with free bets no money risked
I’d suggest there will be a gamble on an obrein talking horse and siskin will be 5/2-3/1 on the day
I’ll go for Vatican City 6-1 ew having read AOB stable tour. As short as 4s in places.
Looks a pretty weak race on paper looking at the entries
A gilt edge chance for siskin if he stays
If he doesnt stay then anything could win
Royal Lytham catches my eye to a degree. Not a flashy profile but if you watch back his Coventry run, he shaped very well. He’s then went onto win over 6f at Newmarket looking very much like a step up in trip would suit. At the Curragh they’ve ridden him from the front, where he’s actually ran on again once the front 2 took over. Again very much shaping like a step up in trip would suit. Gleneagles sees to be giving stamina to his runners, and the mare was a miler herself.
Beaten a length by Siskin, who did win cosily, RL was running on again and nobody knows for sure what would’ve happened. I’m not totally convinced myself Siskin wants a mile, whereas, everything i see from Royal Lytham suggests he will.
I backed him small antepost, as i wasn’t sure on whether he stayed here or went to Newmarket. I’ll probably go in again.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.